Chinese Politics

[Sheilbh]

In the run up to the new Politburo, a very interesting article:
http://twq.com/12winter/docs/12winter_Li.pdf

Any rumours Mono?

[Monoriu]

The article is a good summary of what is already known about the Chinese leadership succession.  People who pay attention to the news in HK won't find a lot of new stuff in it. 

The general expectation is that Xi Jin-ping (the current vice president) will become president this year.  But we are venturing into new territory because this is the first time in 20 years where a leader has not been blessed by Deng Xiao-ping.  Both Jiang and Hu were appointed by Deng.  Xi is the result of negotiations among the factions. 

Hu maybe a first among equals, but there is one area where he holds a great deal of influence - Tibet.  He was party secretary of Tibet in 1989, a very turbulant year for both the region and China as a whole.  It is widely believed that his handling of the unrest impressed Deng.  Hu's departure may open the door for some new policy in this area.  Or it may not.