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Chrysler to File for Bankruptcy

Started by Savonarola, April 30, 2009, 12:01:30 PM

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The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 14, 2009, 02:35:10 PM
Heard on the radio that the secured bondholders caved under threat of having their identities revealed.

They would have to reveal their identities anyway if they wanted to make claims in a bankruptcy proceeding.  Smells a little fishy to me.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Savonarola

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 14, 2009, 03:14:51 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 14, 2009, 02:35:10 PM
Heard on the radio that the secured bondholders caved under threat of having their identities revealed.

They would have to reveal their identities anyway if they wanted to make claims in a bankruptcy proceeding.  Smells a little fishy to me.

They had asked to have their identities kept secret; they claimed they had received death threats.
In Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace—and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Savonarola on May 14, 2009, 03:16:31 PM
They had asked to have their identities kept secret; they claimed they had received death threats.

That's all very exciting, but what did they think would happen if there was a bankruptcy?  You can't go to bankruptcy court and say "Hi - I am Mr. X - I have a security interest in this big pile of inventory here - hope you don't mind if i just walk off with it."  You have to prove your security interest and make public filings, and you can't do it under a pseudonym.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

The Brain

Women want me. Men want to be with me.

MadImmortalMan

If I were a bondholder, I'd have gone public and been a hero for scuttling the deal. Death threats be damned.
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

DontSayBanana

Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 14, 2009, 02:56:32 PM
I'm not shedding any tears for the unsecured bondholders.  But it seems the secured bondholders basically got blackmailed into signing off on the deal.

I'm surprised we're not criticizing the media hype of this more; these disclosures are required with every bankruptcy filing, and it's just the media attention that has drawn the radical nuts to this issue in such large numbers. This is not the first messy bankruptcy, nor will it be the last. I'm also fairly sure it's not the first bankruptcy to involve a company that's been effectively subsidized by the government.

Without seeing the disclosures firsthand, I'm going to presume that these secured creditors were not shafted, that they were given fair liquidation value (that they would try to claim more than such value, citing government subsidies, is more than a little silly), but those are beside the point. The "shaft" came in the form of a decision that the rules would not suddenly be changed for a handful of bondholders to compensate for bad press.
Experience bij!

alfred russel

Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 14, 2009, 04:21:49 PM
If I were a bondholder, I'd have gone public and been a hero for scuttling the deal. Death threats be damned.

I think a few bondholders tried, but their problem was that a significant majority of the bondholders didn't want to go along, which may or may not have been influenced by a significant majority being TARP recepients. It is one thing to tell the government to shove it, it is another to tell the government to shove it when you only exist at their sufferance.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

Hansmeister

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 14, 2009, 03:47:24 PM
Quote from: Savonarola on May 14, 2009, 03:16:31 PM
They had asked to have their identities kept secret; they claimed they had received death threats.

That's all very exciting, but what did they think would happen if there was a bankruptcy?  You can't go to bankruptcy court and say "Hi - I am Mr. X - I have a security interest in this big pile of inventory here - hope you don't mind if i just walk off with it."  You have to prove your security interest and make public filings, and you can't do it under a pseudonym.

The problem is that the threats came from the Obama administration, which threatened to use the WH press corps to go after the creditors.

Hansmeister

Quote from: DontSayBanana on May 14, 2009, 04:26:30 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 14, 2009, 02:56:32 PM
I'm not shedding any tears for the unsecured bondholders.  But it seems the secured bondholders basically got blackmailed into signing off on the deal.

I'm surprised we're not criticizing the media hype of this more; these disclosures are required with every bankruptcy filing, and it's just the media attention that has drawn the radical nuts to this issue in such large numbers. This is not the first messy bankruptcy, nor will it be the last. I'm also fairly sure it's not the first bankruptcy to involve a company that's been effectively subsidized by the government.

Without seeing the disclosures firsthand, I'm going to presume that these secured creditors were not shafted, that they were given fair liquidation value (that they would try to claim more than such value, citing government subsidies, is more than a little silly), but those are beside the point. The "shaft" came in the form of a decision that the rules would not suddenly be changed for a handful of bondholders to compensate for bad press.

Since the secured bondholders receive less than the unions for their unsecure claim is prove in itself that the creditors were shafted.

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Hansmeister on May 14, 2009, 05:07:59 PM
Since the secured bondholders receive less than the unions for their unsecure claim is prove in itself that the creditors were shafted.

It is evidence of it but not proof in itself.  You would have to look at the benefits the union settlement brings to the reorganized entity.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

DontSayBanana

Quote from: Hansmeister on May 14, 2009, 05:07:59 PM
Since the secured bondholders receive less than the unions for their unsecure claim is prove in itself that the creditors were shafted.

Bullshit. The secured claims are processed according to the terms when the collateral was fronted; the unsecured claims are processed according to the value of the company's assets immediately prior to the bankruptcy- they're two totally different beasts.
Experience bij!

Neil

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on May 14, 2009, 05:17:45 PM
Quote from: Hansmeister on May 14, 2009, 05:07:59 PM
Since the secured bondholders receive less than the unions for their unsecure claim is prove in itself that the creditors were shafted.

It is evidence of it but not proof in itself.  You would have to look at the benefits the union settlement brings to the reorganized entity.
It allows the unionized employees a couple more years of sucking on the teat before the company collapses once and for all?  After all, no matter how much money you pump into the company, you can't make up for the fact that Chrysler doesn't make any cars worth buying.
I do not hate you, nor do I love you, but you are made out of atoms which I can use for something else.

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: DontSayBanana on May 14, 2009, 05:22:06 PM
Quote from: Hansmeister on May 14, 2009, 05:07:59 PM
Since the secured bondholders receive less than the unions for their unsecure claim is prove in itself that the creditors were shafted.

Bullshit. The secured claims are processed according to the terms when the collateral was fronted; the unsecured claims are processed according to the value of the company's assets immediately prior to the bankruptcy- they're two totally different beasts.

The secured creditors get the value of their collateral AND and unsecured claim for whatever is left over.  So all else equal it is a bit odd for an unsecured creditor to make off with a higher % recovery than a secured one.

Of course, when its a Chapter 11, and the unsecured creditor is also an essential supplier, it may play out a little differently than according to Hoyle.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Admiral Yi

Quote from: alfred russel on May 14, 2009, 03:06:27 PM
Maybe so, but from where I sit--which is an uninformed chair--they weren't pressured to give up more than they would have been entitled to in a liquidation; they were pressured not to demand a handout with the threat they would create a messy bankruptcy process.
Perhaps I've been operating under a huge cloud of misinformation, but here's how I thought it worked:

I own a $100 Chrysler bond.  I also purchased a credit default swap which pays off if Chrysler is liquidated.  If I accept 20 cents on the dollar in a voluntary settlement the CDS issuer laughs in my face and owes me nothing.

So the issue as I saw it was not whether they were forced to accept liquidation value but whether they were forced to give up CDS value.

It's also possible I've been using "secured creditor" when that's not the correct term.

The Minsky Moment

CDS are privately negotiated so what may constitute a triggering event may vary - a bnakruptcy filing is not necessarily required.

There is no connection between status as a secured lender and holding CDS (although secured lenders may indeed also be CDS holders)

A secured lender is just a lender who has obtained a secured interest in an identified asset in return for a loan.  Just like a mortgage in the RE context.  In the case of Chrysler it might be some equipment, or inventories of unsold cars, or real estate holdings, or receivables owed to them.  Holding a CDS is not a secured interest.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson