Iran warns the US carrier against returning to the Persian gulf

[Malthus]

I remember when this was first reported and it sounded like the guy was told to pretend he was screwed and to just roll over for the Blue FOrce, but it was never clear on just how much he was gaming the system, or how much the Pentagon was to justify its own policies.

Von Ripper's problem was that he was a specops type who didn't understand anything about the problems of localizing and identifying ships at sea, as well as overcoming deception efforts and communicating effectively with widely-dispersed forces.  What he claimed he could do with fishing vessels couldn't be done, nor could they communicate the resulots of their efforts back to the shore HQ without using radios, nor could the HQ disseminate its firing orders by motorcycle to widely-dispersed launchers (whose locations were not even known to the HQ sending the orders nor the couriers carrying the orders) and carrying out a simultaneous pinpoint-accurate mass launch (based on tageting magically provided by the fishing boats and somehow not obsolete).  The whole von Ripper scenario was laughable, and would only have been proposed by someone so ignorant of the facts that he wasn't even aware how ignorant he was.

That doesn't mean the exercise was not valuable.  The Blue-Red freeplay CPX was a tiny portion of the overall exercise.

If you claim to do something that cannot be done, wouldn't the umpires or whoever sets the game mechanics simply rule that whatever you attempted to do didn't work?

I am totally ignorant of the way these wargames work - from the article (of dubious veracity) it would appear that Ripper managed a win. Was this exploiting bugs in the mechanics?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

They are west of Afghanistan.

they wouldn't be after the US is done with them :p

[Ideologue]

You guys worry too much, Obama will sit down to have some tea with them and talk it out.

Well, how could thet resist a genuine Nobel Peace-Prize winner?

You know what would be fantastic?  A bomb with Obama's medal welded to it.  The best part is that because it changed the aerodynamics of the device, it might land off course and hit a Chinese embassy.

[Ideologue]

Mainly thinking of the Iraq sanctions, but yes.

The reason I ask is I could see it as hyperbole (there have been times when the US has not been as concerned about the humanitarian effects of sanctions as I would wish) but it doesn't work at all as a literal statement of fact.  The US responded to the claims of civilian suffering caused by the Iraqi sanction regime to approve the food for oil program.  A country that is utterly indifferent to human suffering doesn't do that.

No kidding.  The U.S. has always displayed some measure of humanitarian concern in its military operations, outside of WWII.  Hell, perhaps to some extent even during WWII, given the quasi-lies about "precision bombing" promulgated by the USAAF in regards to Germany.

[grumbler]

If you claim to do something that cannot be done, wouldn't the umpires or whoever sets the game mechanics simply rule that whatever you attempted to do didn't work?

Yes, and when they did that, General Van Riper claimed he was being unduly constrained, and quit.

I am totally ignorant of the way these wargames work - from the article (of dubious veracity) it would appear that Ripper managed a win. Was this exploiting bugs in the mechanics?

The "sinkings" were the sinking he claimed when he complained to the press that he had been "unduly constrained" by the structure of the exercise.  He claimed that Red was launching Silkworm missiles from fishing boats, for example.  He completely glossed over the fact that there were serious problems with trying to emplace a Silkworm on a fishing vessel, let alone give it targeting data and fire control.  What he was trying was a bold measure, but he couldn't think things through because he didn't have the data he needed to think those things through.  IMO, he was trying to be too clever, and was trying too hard just to win, without testing his idea against what was really possible.

It was a command post exercise (CPX).  No matter how successful he would have been in a more well-thought-out operation, the landings and whatnot (the real-world stuff) would have been carried out.  They simply were not going to send a carrier battle group and amphibious  task force home without exercising them because the CPX said they were "sunk."  Van Riper knew damned well that "sunk" ships in an exercise always "regenerate," so that element of his complaint is simply a result of pique over the fact that the umpires had ruled that he was not successful, IMO.

I have been Blue forces, Red forces, and an umpire in these kinds of exercises.  Their purpose is to generate the best possible "Lessons Learned" document, not give any player some sense of ego-gratification because they "won."  There can be some ego-gratification (especially as Red, because you are not constrained by doctrine and your equipment, being constructive, cannot break down), but that isn't the object.

I would agree with the assertion that "Blue always wins" in these exercises, even if they only do so because they have to - the exercise is carried to its conclusion no matter how many times any Blue forces have to be "regenerated" - to do otherwise means that training opportunities are lost.  Red's objective isn't to "win," but to get as many items into the "Lessons Learned" log as possible.  It sounds to me like General Van Riper lost sight of that objective.

The Lessons Learned document is classified, btw, so I don't know how much his efforts got translated into entries into that document.  If his efforts got totally blown off in the Lessons Learned, he has cause for complaint.  Just not the complaint he actually made.

[Jacob]

Interesting, grumbler. It does seem a little silly for the general to complain he was robbed of his victory. Or is there actually some career advantage to being the victorious hero of one of these exercises?

[Malthus]

Yeah, interesting stuff. Sounds like the good general is grandstanding.

I guess that goes with having an awesomely appropriate name. 

[alfred russel]

Interesting, grumbler. It does seem a little silly for the general to complain he was robbed of his victory. Or is there actually some career advantage to being the victorious hero of one of these exercises?

I thought this was a really cool story, and was reading some things on the internet, all of which took the general's side. He was retired, so it wasn't so much a career advantage, but he is a harsh critic of Rumsfeld and the military doctrine under him. It sounded as though he thought his victory was proof that current military doctrine is fubar, and while refloating the fleet made sense, the changing of the rules was done to make sure current doctrine was vindicated.

It makes sense that all the articles I saw supported the general; Rumsfeld and the military ignoring evidence their policies are deeply flawed is a story, an old retired general cheating at a game and then quitting when made to stop isn't so interesting. Grumbler, do you have anything to read from the military point of view?

Whatever the case, this game sounded like a $250 million boondoggle.

[The Minsky Moment]

Sadly, grumbler is just giving the company line on Van Riper.

Yes, and when they did that, General Van Riper claimed he was being unduly constrained, and quit.

Nonsense, he couldn't quit, he was already retired.   

He claimed that Red was launching Silkworm missiles from fishing boats, for example.  He completely glossed over the fact that there were serious problems with trying to emplace a Silkworm on a fishing vessel, let alone give it targeting data and fire control.

The computers they have on fishing boats these days are really impressive.  They can tell you the depth, type and approximate numbers of fish - all with color displays and USB connections!  Fire control for a Chinese-made Iranian missile is simple in comparison.

What he was trying was a bold measure, but he couldn't think things through because he didn't have the data he needed to think those things through. 

Typical Pentagon bean counting thinking.

It was a command post exercise (CPX). 

The oldest trick in the Pentagon book - when you are out-foxed, fall back on acronyms.

They simply were not going to send a carrier battle group and amphibious  task force home without exercising them because the CPX said they were "sunk."  Van Riper knew damned well that "sunk" ships in an exercise always "regenerate," so that element of his complaint is simply a result of pique over the fact that the umpires had ruled that he was not successful, IMO.

I've heard these kinds of rules before - in Paradox naval AI.

I've been Blue forces, Red forces, and an umpire in these kinds of exercises.  Their purpose is to generate the best possible "Lessons Learned" document, not give any player some sense of ego-gratification because they "won." 

So says every sore loser.  Why not sing a chorus of kumbaya at the end while they are at it.

I would agree with the assertion that "Blue always wins" in these exercises, even if they only do so because they have to - the exercise is carried to its conclusion no matter how many times any Blue forces have to be "regenerated" - to do otherwise means that training opportunities are lost.  Red's objective isn't to "win," but to get as many items into the "Lessons Learned" log as possible.  It sounds to me like General Van Riper lost sight of that objective.

Perhaps he thought the objective was to teach sailors how to kick ass, not learn to maximize paperwork.

[mongers]

So who hacked Minsky's account ?

I'd think one of Grumbler's objections to fishing boats lauching anti-ship missiles is that those silkworms are quite big, approaching the size of a small 2seater 200hp light aircraft and they need a bit of a ramp to lauch off of.   

Unless it's the size of a substantial fishing vessel like a North Sea trawler or bigger, I don't see how you'd adapt such a vessel to carry these weapons.

[Habbaku]

So who hacked Minsky's account ?

[Darth Wagtaros]

So who hacked Minsky's account ?

You admit it.  That is the first step on the Road to Recovery.

[The Minsky Moment]

I've always been Hansmeister's sock puppet.  Then I accidentally fired myself and I was stuck with this identity.

[Malthus]

Now I'm intrigued.

Was Van Riper a grandstander gaming the game for yuks and glory, or a brave pioneer exposing the weaknesses of the US naval system?

[grumbler]

Nonsense, he couldn't quit, he was already retired.   

Nonsense; he was a consultant hired to play a Middle Eastern dictator.  He wasn't a real dictator, he just played one on TV.  He can quit that job.

The computers they have on fishing boats these days are really impressive.  They can tell you the depth, type and approximate numbers of fish - all with color displays and USB connections!  Fire control for a Chinese-made Iranian missile is simple in comparison.

While true, you are describing the situation now, and the exercise was set in 2002.  Silkworm connections through USB 1.1 were crap.