Save Europe Day

[Tamas]

What, no thread on the big meeting going on?

To summarize what you already know: Thursday night, an agreement was drafted to have more rigid fiscal rules in the EU, in exchange of the ECB printing money.

Everyone seem to accept that, except European political giants UK and Hungary, who flat-out declined, according to early reports. Sweden and the Czech Republic asked for more time to ask their Parlaiment. (funny that your excuse is asking guys you usually tell which buttons to push).

Early morning today, Hungarian officials and the PM indicated that Hungary's answer was not a denial, but a definitive maybe. Latest reports seem to indicate we might change that to "probably".

But latest is that Bulgarians, Danes, and Poles also seem to be leaning toward stalling the thing, so a scenario where only the euro-zone members get to agree on having responsible fiscal policies seem closer at hand. Except of course that Ireland is a member of that and they are reportedly not too keen on having to feel responsible for their own budget.

[Sheilbh]

What's your beef with Ireland?

[Tamas]

What's your beef with Ireland?

If they refuse this deal, they will make my countryman, Sarkozy, angry. 

[Cerr]

What's your beef with Ireland?

If they refuse this deal, they will make my countryman, Sarkozy, angry. 

Sarkozy wants to bully us into increasing our corporate tax rate.

[KRonn]

Peace in our time!   

[Tamas]

So latest reports is that UK will stand alone as the sole naysayer, with the core yay-people accompanied by a crowd of indecisive ones.

In other words, I fail to see how this meeting is not a big letdown right now.

[Josephus]

England out of Europe? Perhaps?

[Syt]

What's your beef with Ireland?

If they refuse this deal, they will make my countryman, Sarkozy, angry. 

You mean the head of the Austrian union of gypsies Roma?

[Sheilbh]

In other words, I fail to see how this meeting is not a big letdown right now.

More importantly I'm not convinced by the deal. 

The element requiring constitutional amendments limiting structural deficits to 0.5% is probably pretty robust.  The timetable's to be set by the Commission in theory, but in practice amending 17 constitutions is just going to take a long time.

They're not introducing a new stronger Stability and Growth Pact.  From what I can see the current one is being 'strengthened' - the Commission will produce proposals soon - but it doesn't look automatic but subject to QMV within the EZ.  I don't see how that's any different from what we had before, if France and Germany and Italy run deficits there's nothing anyone can do about it, if Slovakia do they'll rain holy hell on them.

They're going to rapidly develop the ESM - but it still won't be ready over the next year, probably - so we're stuck with the EFSF.  The ESM will operate on QMV at least.  Of the EFSF's €500 billion current fund will be 're-assessed'.

On the upside it looks like they're going to follow IMF procedure on private sector involvement. 

Combined with Draghi's comments yesterday, though, this simply doesn't look enough to me.  It seems very much like a reheated Stability and Growth Pact.

Edit:  Also does anyone else think that the proposal to give money to the IMF who will then put it in the EFSF/ESM just kind of looks like money laundering to avoid German voters noticing what their government's doing?

[Sheilbh]

Peace in our time!   

The Sun's headline is 'Fleeced in our time'.  That was before the news of the veto I imagine.

[Ed Anger]

I'm seen some bad fiction start this way.

Time to re-read Cauldron.

[Tamas]

Edit:  Also does anyone else think that the proposal to give money to the IMF who will then put it in the EFSF/ESM just kind of looks like money laundering to avoid German voters noticing what their government's doing?

yeah, I don't get stuff like that - are German voters really that ignorant to not notice that?

[Admiral Yi]

They're not introducing a new stronger Stability and Growth Pact.  From what I can see the current one is being 'strengthened' - the Commission will produce proposals soon - but it doesn't look automatic but subject to QMV within the EZ.  I don't see how that's any different from what we had before, if France and Germany and Italy run deficits there's nothing anyone can do about it, if Slovakia do they'll rain holy hell on them.

They're going to rapidly develop the ESM - but it still won't be ready over the next year, probably - so we're stuck with the EFSF.  The ESM will operate on QMV at least.  Of the EFSF's €500 billion current fund will be 're-assessed'.

On the upside it looks like they're going to follow IMF procedure on private sector involvement. 

Combined with Draghi's comments yesterday, though, this simply doesn't look enough to me.  It seems very much like a reheated Stability and Growth Pact.

Edit:  Also does anyone else think that the proposal to give money to the IMF who will then put it in the EFSF/ESM just kind of looks like money laundering to avoid German voters noticing what their government's doing?

You guys have a lot of nerve mocking American overuse of acronyms.

[Valmy]

Sarkozy wants to bully us into increasing our corporate tax rate.

Is that necessary?  I thought the problem in Ireland was not related to Soveriegn debt but to a bank crisis.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

What's your beef with Ireland?

If they refuse this deal, they will make my countryman, Sarkozy, angry. 

Sarkozy wants to bully us into increasing our corporate tax rate.

so? That's no problem.
As belgium shows, a high corporate taxrate (or just a taxrate) need not be an impediment. The 50 biggest companies in Belgium don't even pay 10% tax via all kinds of backdoors.