Who will be the Republican Nominee for President (post Cain)

[Ed Anger]

Adolf Hitler 77%
Napoleon 61%
Caracalla 45%
Caligula 41%

Wish I'd thought of that.

I would vote for 3 out of 4 of those historical figures. If you can guess who I wouldn't vote for, you win nothing.

[Ideologue]

I love him and all, but I don't think I could in good conscience vote for Caliga.

[Ed Anger]

The answer is Caracalla. Thank you for playing!

[Eddie Teach]

Poor Cal, he's never going to get that Colonelship.

Isn't it a colonelcy?

Red squiggly lines agree with me.

[Caliga]

Jon Huntsman - 80.1 %
Newt Gingrich - 64.3 %
Mitt Romney - 61.3 %
Ron Paul - 56.5 %
Rick Perry - 55.2 %
Michele Bachmann - 51.6 %
Rick Santorum - 48.0 %

[stjaba]

Back to the topic at hand....

Gingrich has been leading nearly every single state poll outside of New Hampshire. But the latest Iowa poll actually has Romney with a two point lead over Gingrich. And Gingrich's numbers on Intrade have dropped dramatically. As recently as a couple days ago, Romney's chances for winning the nomination were around 40% and Gingrich was around 35%. Now, Gingrich has dropped to 15% and Romney is almost at 60%.

That sounds like a good bet on Gringrich. Rogue poll? The previous two had Romney trailing Paul (and Perry in one)

Gingrich's numbers appear to be dropping in multiple polls, so it's possible he has peaked and is on his way down.  Gingrich has been getting heavily attacked as the front runner. Most of the mainstream conservative voices are very anti-Gingrich and have been really vocal the past two weeks. The National Review(an influential conservative magazine) ran an anti-Gingrich editorial this week.  Romney's surrogates having been going negative.  Gingrich has been facing a lot of negative ads from multiple sources in Iowa. The narrative appears to be that Gingrich is on his way down and I think that's reflected in the Intrade numbers. Of course, it's definitely possible that Intrade traders have over-compensated and Gingrich is under-valued  at this point.

[Razgovory]

The answer is Caracalla. Thank you for playing!

He did build some impressive baths.

[Ed Anger]

The answer is Caracalla. Thank you for playing!

He did build some impressive baths.

Killed while taking a leak. DISQUALIFIED.

[Habbaku]

Paul - 74.5%
Huntsman - 57.1%

[Caliga]

Great, another Raz rant about Paul is headed our way.

[Habbaku]

That's okay; he'll tire himself out eventually.

[Razgovory]

Great, another Raz rant about Paul is headed our way.

The one ranting was either Paul or his ghost writer.  Not me.

[Razgovory]

The answer is Caracalla. Thank you for playing!

He did build some impressive baths.

Killed while taking a leak. DISQUALIFIED.

I didn't know how he was killed.  All I knew was he considered one of the bad emperors, he built some baths and was assassinated.

[dps]

Newt Gingrich    77.4%
Mitt Romnry   71.5%
Jon Huntsman   70.3%

[Razgovory]

I admit, I have a soft spot for Gingrich.  Yeah, he's an arrogant prick, but he's an intelligent arrogant prick.  He's more an idea man, a wonk.  While I disagree with much of what he says, and he has a tendency toward low blows and cheap tricks I still respect his intellect.  His biggest weakness is that he's an asshole.  And everyone who knows him thinks that, so it's hard for him to build consensus and the like.  I am reminded of the statement about FDR: That he had "a second-rate intellect but a first-rate temperament".  This made him an excellent president.  Gingrich is the opposite.

I'd really like to know what Hans thinks and who he supports.  It's a shame he rarely posts here anymore.