Are Republicans Turning Into Libertarians?

[MadImmortalMan]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/29/us/politics/28web-nagourney.html

Signs G.O.P. Is Rethinking Stance on Gay Marriage

By ADAM NAGOURNEY
Published: April 28, 2009

WASHINGTON — It was only five years ago that opposition to gay marriage was so strong that Republicans explicitly turned to the issue as a way to energize conservative voters. Yet today, as the party contemplates the task of rebuilding itself, some Republicans say the issue of gay marriage may be turning into more of a hindrance than a help.


The fact that a run of states have legalized gay marriage in recent months — either by court decision or by legislative action — with little backlash is only one indication of how public attitudes about this subject appear to be changing.

More significant is evidence in polls of a widening divide on the issue by age, suggesting to many Republicans that the potency of the gay-marriage question is on the decline. It simply does not appear to have the resonance with younger voters that it does with older ones.

Consider this: In the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, released on Monday, 31 percent of respondents over the age of 40 said they supported gay marriage. By contrast, 57 percent under age 40 said they supported it, a 26-point difference. Among the older respondents, 35 percent said they opposed any legal recognition of same-sex couples, be it marriage or civil unions. Among the younger crowd, just 19 percent held that view.

Steve Schmidt, who was the senior strategist to Senator John McCain of Arizona during his presidential campaign, said in a speech and an interview that Republicans were in danger of losing these younger voters unless the party comes to appreciate how issues like gay marriage resonate, or do not resonate, with them.

"Republicans should re-examine the extent to which we are being defined by positions on issues that I don't believe are among our core values, and that put us at odds with what I expect will become, over time, if not a consensus view, then the view of a substantial majority of voters," he said in a speech.

This does not mean, Republicans said, that most Americans are suddenly embracing the idea of same-sex couples going to the chapel. It is more that, for a lot of these Americans, gay marriage is not something they spend a lot of time worrying about, or even thinking about.

For younger respondents, this shift may in part be cultural: the result of coming of age in an era when openly gay people have become increasingly common in popular entertainment and in public life, not to mention in their own families or social circles. Familiarity in this case breeds relative comfort, or perhaps just lack of interest.

The other reason, members of both parties said, is that the argument over gay marriage seems beside the point at a time when the country is facing a severe economic crisis, remains on edge for another domestic terrorist attack and has just inaugurated its first black president.

"Right now, people are not concerned about issues like gay marriage because they are concerned about the economy," Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former Republican mayor of New York, told reporters in Albany after meeting with Republican members of the state Senate, who are opposing legislation to legalize gay marriage.

Mr. Giuliani explained that he opposed gay marriage — while supporting civil unions — but that he did not think it made much sense for Republicans to be harping on the issue if the party had any serious interest in returning to power.

"The Republican party does best organizing itself around economic issues and issues of national security," said Mr. Giuliani, 64, who ran for president last year and is now thinking about running for governor of New York.

The difference in attitudes among age groups has been noted by Republicans at a time when party leaders are engaged in discussion about what policies and messages can best help them regain some of the power they have lost to Democrats. Some conservative leaders said that unless something happened to reverse the trend, it would simply be a matter of time — perhaps as many as 10 years, perhaps as few as 3 — before opposition to gay marriage would get traction in only a few parts of the country.

In this latest New York Times/CBS News Poll, 42 percent of all respondents said they supported gay marriage, compared with 22 percent in March 2004. By contrast, 18 percent of Republicans supported gay marriage, while 49 percent said they opposed any kind of recognition of gay unions. The electorate at large seems to be moving while Republican base voters are not, a challenge to any Republican seeing to win his or her party's nomination in 2012.

"It's a problem," said Mr. Schmidt said in an interview.

This was reflected in a recent conversation with Tim Pawlenty, the Republican governor of Minnesota, a social conservative who opposes gay marriage and is considering a run for president.

Asked if he thought, given recent events, that Republicans were making a political mistake in emphasizing gay issues, Mr. Pawlenty, who is 48, responded: "I think it's an important issue for our conservative voters." But he notably did not dwell on the subject.

Before joining Mr. McCain's ill-fated campaign, Mr. Schmidt was known in Republican circles for arguing that the party needed to move away from social issues to be successful; he managed Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign for governor in California.

"The Republican Party is shrinking," he said. "One of the reasons it is shrinking is because there are large demographics in this country that view the party as intolerant or not relevant to them. Politics is about addition."

For Republicans, the complications of this issue could very well focus on the very first state on the nominating calendar in 2012, Iowa. The courts there overturned a law banning gay marriage earlier this month, and social conservatives — who are a strong force in Republican politics in Iowa — are already organizing to try to amend the state Constitution to restore the ban.

Should developments continue apace, Republican candidates for president are going to be pressed to support that effort, and to spend time talking about an issue that could undercut their appeal to more centrist voters in a general election.

Will that matter? As Mr. Schmidt noted, the winner of the Iowa Republican caucus is hardly assured of becoming the party's nominee; Mr. McCain lost there in 2008. Still, he said it would be difficult for any Republican candidate to win his party's nomination in 2012 without opposing gay marriage.

"I think it's likely that all our candidates will be against gay marriage," Mr. Schmidt said. "But the point is this: There should be a de-emphasis on this issue. This is not the most important issue facing the country. In states where this has been made legal, there has been a collective yawn from the citizenry in a lot of these states. The party should focus on disagreeing with the president on the axis of issues that we agree on."

Mr. Schmidt is 38 years old.

[Faeelin]

My guess is you'll see this on a state by state level first; the NY Republicans have already said that wihle they're opposed to gay marriage, they'll let the Republicans vote with their conscience.

Meanwhile, the Democrats are refusing to bring the bill to the Senate floor for a vote, in accordance with the chronic corruption of the NY Senate, where bills are only brought if they're assured passage, and several of the Democratic Senators are vehemently against it, infuriating the Democratic party's state support, which is a terrible sign for them in the upcmoing gubernatorial and senatorial elections, since NY GLBT funding was pretty significant in the 2008 elections.

As strategies go, it's not bad.

[Berkut]

After living in NY for 7 years, I am still mystified and bemused by NYS politics.

[Jacob]

Yeah, similarly the Dems have been a lot quieter about Obama continuing Bush policies on War on Terror.

Yeah, there are similarities.

[Jacob]

one more time :actually if you leave the languish bubbleboy reality, and head to some leftist-dem sites, you'll see there's a lot of anger, dissapointment and debate.

Yeah, I hang out on a gaming board where the American posters are pretty left-Dem and many of them are quite disappointed in Obama on a variety of fronts and they're not particularly quiet about it.