Syria Under Increasing Pressure After Suspension by Arab League

[jimmy olsen]

If Assad goes down won't Syria fracture into a bloody tribal & religious civil war? Where does this go that's in a positive direction? Every option from Assad falling to getting overthrown seems bad.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-14/syria-under-increasing-pressure-after-suspension-by-arab-league.html

Syria Under Increasing Pressure After Suspension by Arab League

By Glen Carey and Nayla Razzouk

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- International pressure on Syria increased, with calls for President Bashar al-Assad to quit, after the country was suspended from the Arab League over his government's eight-month crackdown on protesters.

The European Union widened its sanctions on Syria, while King Abdullah of Jordan said Assad should step down. In Saudi Arabia, the Jeddah-based Arab News, which has links to the kingdom's royal family, published an editorial yesterday with the headline "It is time for Assad to go."

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem called the Arab League's decision to suspend the country's membership "very dangerous" and said the bloc had given in to external pressure. U.S. support for the organization's decision was "incitement," he said yesterday during a news conference televised from Damascus, a day after the government called for an emergency summit of the Cairo-based Arab League to address Syria's crisis.

Assad's government has continued targeting dissenters since saying it had accepted a Nov. 2 Arab League plan for ending the violence. Security forces killed 37 demonstrators yesterday, Al Arabiya television reported, citing protest activists. The U.S. said Nov. 7 that 71 civilians had died in the previous three days. More than 3,500 protesters have been killed in the eight months of violence, the United Nations said Nov. 8.

The EU added 18 people in Syria alleged to be "responsible for human-rights violations" to a list of those targeted by an asset freeze and travel ban, according to an EU statement yesterday.

'Change Status Quo'

The Jordanian king made his comments on Assad in an interview aired yesterday by the British Broadcasting Corp.

"If I were in his shoes, I would step down," Abdullah said. "I would step down and make sure whoever comes behind me has the ability to change the status quo that we're seeing."

Assad has blamed foreign provocateurs and Islamic militants for the violence surrounding anti-government protests that erupted in March.

"We are determined to implement the Arab League decision," al-Muallem said. "We are the ones who want an end to violence, wherever it comes from." Syria would defend its land and confront armed groups, he said.

Army defectors attacked a bus carrying Syrian soldiers in the southern city of Idlib and killed nine of them, the Observatory for Human Rights in Syria said Nov. 13.

Monitors Arriving

Arab League Secretary-General Nabil el-Arabi said yesterday he received a letter from al-Muallem with Syria's request for an emergency summit and that 15 member countries must agree for such a meeting to take place. "When we have 15 approvals, then we hold a summit," he told reporters in Cairo.

The League will send 500 monitors from Arab human-rights and civil-society groups, along with military experts, to areas of unrest in Syria, Ibrahim al-Zaafarani, an official from the Arab Doctors' Union, told reporters after meeting with the League's chief in Cairo yesterday. The bloc will sign an agreement with Syria to guarantee the safety of the monitors, who will be ready to go to Syria within 48 hours, he added. Syria had said it would welcome monitors before the suspension begins Nov. 16.

Syria's parliament denounced the Arab League resolution, saying that it violated the organization's charter and was a "blatant interference in Syria's internal affairs," the state- run Syria Arab News Agency reported yesterday. Thousands rallied Nov. 13 in cities to condemn the League's decision, it said.

Syria isn't worried about foreign military intervention and won't face the same scenario that led to the toppling of the Libyan government under Muammar Qaddafi, al-Muallem said. "Syria isn't Libya," he said. Syria also has close ties to Iran, which isn't an easy country to threaten, he said.

League's Demands

The Arab League said on Nov. 12 that Syria will be barred from the group's meetings until it withdraws tanks from cities, releases detained protesters and starts supervised talks with the opposition. Syria is the second Arab nation this year to be suspended from the regional bloc, after Libya.

Assad "is worried about the Arab League lines concerning political and economic sanctions, and the organization's engagement with the opposition," Andrew Tabler, a Syria analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said in response to e-mailed questions. "Those are debates he will seek to influence."

U.S. President Barack Obama said the Arab League's action shows "the increasing diplomatic isolation of a regime that has systematically violated human rights."

Following the Arab League decision to suspend Syria, attackers stormed embassies and consulates in the country.

Saudi Embassy

Saudi Arabia's embassy in Damascus sustained broken windows and there was "tampering with its contents," the state-run Saudi Press Agency said. Saudi Arabia condemned the attack and said it holds the Syrian government responsible for the safety of Saudi interests, SPA said Nov. 13, citing unidentified Foreign Ministry officials.

About 1,000 people attacked the Turkish Embassy in Damascus before police intervened, Turkey's state-run Anatolia news agency said. France condemned the attacks on embassies and consulates in Syria and summoned the Syrian ambassador to a meeting in Paris, the French Foreign Ministry said.

"I apologize for attacks on foreign embassies," al- Muallem said.

Syria is ready if neighboring Turkey decides to conspire against it, he said. Syria plans to "defend its territory" against any attempt by Turkey to set up a buffer zone on the Syrian side of the border, al-Muallem said.

'Decisive Stance'

Turkey will take "the most decisive stance" against Syria following attacks on its embassy and consulates, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said. Turkey responded to the assaults through diplomatic channels and will continue to support the Syrian people's "righteous struggle," Davutoglu said, according to Anatolia.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the Arab Syria League measure "incorrect" and "premeditated," Interfax reported yesterday.

Of the Arab League's 22 members, 18 voted for Syria's suspension, with Iraq abstaining and Yemen and Lebanon opposing the decision. The bloc also called on all Arab countries to withdraw ambassadors from Damascus, and said it plans to impose economic and political sanctions on Syria.

--With assistance from Abdel Latif Wahba, Ola Galal and Mariam Fam in Cairo, Mourad Haroutunian in Riyadh, Paul Tighe in Sydney and Zaid Sabah Abd Alhamid, Nadeem Hamid and Greg Stohr in Washington. Editors: Heather Langan, Andrew Atkinson

[Josquius]

Probally. Apparently the regime really butters up the christians, so they stand to lose a lot when the revolution comes around, especially given the pointers towards Islamicism we've had in other countries that have revolted.

Anyway, attacking the Turkish embassy, good news, that's what is needed in Syria, Turkey.

[Darth Wagtaros]

Probally. Apparently the regime really butters up the christians, so they stand to lose a lot when the revolution comes around, especially given the pointers towards Islamicism we've had in other countries that have revolted.

Anyway, attacking the Turkish embassy, good news, that's what is needed in Syria, Turkey.

Yes. The Christians, Druze, and Alawi, along with the Shi'ites will be creamed when Assad goes.

[KRonn]

http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/17/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

(CNN) -- Security personnel killed at least eight people across Syria and explosions and gunfire rocked the suburbs of the capital Damascus, activists said on Thursday, another day of deadly street rage portending worldwide fears of wider violence.

This comes a day after the Free Syrian Army, the band of military defectors, said it attacked an air intelligence base in Harasta outside Damascus and planted "powerful explosions inside and around the compound that shook its foundations." The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said security forces embarked on raids in Harasta on Thursday, set up checkpoints and arrested dozens.

As for the eight slain people, security forces and soldiers killed them, the Local Coordination Committees of Syria, an activist group with a network across the country, said on Thursday.

The dead include four military defectors outside the western city of Hama, an 8-year-old in the western city of Deir Ezzor, two dead in the western city of Homs and one killed in the northwestern city of Idlib. The LCC reported raids and arrests in Hama neighborhoods, snipers in Idlib and demonstrations in Deir Ezzor and the southern city of Daraa.

The Observatory also said that army defectors in Idlib province used rocket-propelled grenades to attack the pro-government Revolutionary Youth Association office and clashed with Syrian security personnel.

International leaders have been intensifying their pressure on President Bashar al-Assad to end violence against protesters in the uprising the United Nations says has killed well over 3,500 people. Russia and Turkey are the latest world powers to weigh in on the crisis.

"Violence in Syria must stop -- whatever its origin," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, according to state-run RIA Novosti news agency. "Violence in Syria originates not only from government structures as more and more weapons are being smuggled in from neighboring countries."

Turkish Prime Minsiter Recep Tayyip Erdogan compared the reaction to the Libyan and Syrian crises, according to the semi-official Anatolian Agency. NATO forces helped Libyan rebels oust the Moammar Gadhafi regime in Libya, but international powers haven't intervened in Syria.

"I want you to know that the people losing their lives in Syria are just as human as those who lost their lives in Libya. That those who had the appetite for Libya remain silent and without reaction in the face of the slaughters in Syria opens wounds hard to repair in human conscience," Erdogan said

One expert, Andrew Tabler of Washington Institute for Near East Policy said the strike on air intelligence reflects the growing sophistication of the Free Syrian Army and "opens up a new era of the conflict. Air intelligence has been deeply involved in the eight-month crackdown by the Syrian government against protesters," he said

"Until now, most of the protests have been peaceful."

Germany, France and Britain will hand in a draft U.N. resolution on Thursday condemning the Syrian government's actions, a German diplomatic spokesman in New York told CNN on Wednesday. Diplomats from Arab countries are considering co-sponsoring the resolution.

The Arab League, which met in Rabat, Morocco on Wednesday, has given Damascus three days to implement a protocol to allow observes to enter the nation and verify whether Syria has taken measures to protect civilians.

The league has also called on member states to withdraw their ambassadors from Damascus, a decision that will be up to each nation. In a sign of Syria's growing international isolation, France withdrew its ambassador Wednesday after attacks on its missions in the nation.

CNN is not able to independently verify claims of fighting and casualties because the Syrian government has restricted international media access to the country.

[jimmy olsen]

From what I've seen on the news lately fighting is really intensifying. Looks like full blown civil war is at hand.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-18/syrian-rebels-launch-new-attack-on-security-agents/3678476/?site=melbourne

Rebel troops hit offices of Syria's ruling party a day after a spectacular raid on an intelligence base that prompted warnings of civil war.

An activist group said the rocket-propelled grenade attack targeted regime youth offices where security agents were meeting in Idlib province in the north-west of the country, close to the Turkish border.

It came as security forces killed four people, including a nine-year-old girl, despite a three-day ultimatum from the Arab League to halt the bloodshed or risk sanctions.

There has been an angry response from president Bashar al-Assad's supporters, who have attacked several diplomatic missions belonging to those countries most critical of him.

There is no indication yet he will comply with the Arab League's demands.

The rebels' attack was hot on the heels of a raid on an air force intelligence base in Harasta, outside the capital, on Wednesday by fighters of the Free Syrian Army, a rebel group formed by army deserters that has inflicted mounting losses on the regular army in recent months.
Civil war warning

US state department spokesman Mark Toner said it was "not surprising" the opposition was resorting to violence in its campaign to end Mr Assad's 11 years of iron-fisted rule.

"We don't condone it in any way, shape or form but... it's the brutal tactics of Assad and his regime in dealing with what began as a non-violent movement (that) is now taking Syria down a very dangerous path," he said.

"We think that this kind of violence... it really plays into Assad's and his regime's hands when this becomes violent."

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said the world community should call on all sides in Syria to stop violence, including the opposition.

"There are more and more weapons that are being smuggled in from neighbouring countries," Mr Lavrov said.

"Today I saw a television report about some new so-called rebel Free Syrian Army organising an attack on the government building, on the building belonging to Syria's armed forces. This was quite similar to a true civil war."

Russia has been deeply opposed to Western efforts to internationalise the crisis in its Cold War ally, fearing it might clear the way for Libya-style Western military intervention under UN mandate.

On October 4, it joined with China in vetoing a Western-drafted Security Council resolution that would have threatened Mr Assad's regime with "targeted measures" if it continued its deadly crackdown on protesters, which the UN says has killed more than 3,500 people.
'Legitimate target'

Leading Syrian dissident Haithem al-Maleh took issue with Russia's warning of civil war, saying the intelligence base, where a number of detainees were being held, was a legitimate target in the protection of civilians.

"This attack on one of the worst departments of the security services does not mean a civil war. This army of defectors is protecting civilians, no more, no less," Mr Maleh told the satellite news channel Al-Jazeera.

Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said security forces killed a nine-year-old girl during a search operation in the town of Subkhan, in the eastern oil hub of Deir Ezzor.

Two civilians were killed in the flashpoint central city of Homs and a fourth near Maaret al-Numan in Idlib province, the watchdog added.

[KRonn]

From what I've seen on the news lately fighting is really intensifying. Looks like full blown civil war is at hand.

That's what I've been seeing discussed in the news earlier this week, if this is, or close to becoming, a full blown revolution or civil war. Interesting to see Turkey asking why NATO/UN don't intervene. I hope they'll join in if those agencies do go in. I think Turkey took part in Libya?

[jimmy olsen]

From what I've seen on the news lately fighting is really intensifying. Looks like full blown civil war is at hand.

That's what I've been seeing discussed in the news earlier this week, if this is, or close to becoming, a full blown revolution or civil war. Interesting to see Turkey asking why NATO/UN don't intervene. I hope they'll join in if those agencies do go in. I think Turkey took part in Libya?

I don't think they did. I thought Qatar was the only Middle Eastern state to actively participate.

If Turkey offers to make a substantial effort in such an intervention I think we should consider it, otherwise no.

[Razgovory]

Well, I thought the Libya thing was a bad idea, and it turned out okay (I guess).  Is the US interested in intervening in Syria?

[Tamas]

question:

Is Syria still an Iran satellite? If yes, a Turkish intervention will become Regional Supremacy Round #1, will it not?

[Razgovory]

Syria was never a satellite of Iran.  Allies, yes.  Satellite, no.

[Ed Anger]

I'd like to see the Leopard MBT in action. Just for the lulz.

[jimmy olsen]

Syria was never a satellite of Iran.  Allies, yes.  Satellite, no.

Haven't the Iranians shipped in troops to Syria on the sly to help put down the rebellion?

[Mr.Penguin]

Syria was never a satellite of Iran.  Allies, yes.  Satellite, no.

Haven't the Iranians shipped in troops to Syria on the sly to help put down the rebellion?

It has been rumored that Iranian Revolutionary Guard has been used to suppress protests, in the form of snipers shooting at protesters from rooftops, but so far does it look like it's only a rumor like the mythical "black mercenaries" reported helping Gaddafi...     

[PDH]

Is the Arab League like the Justice League?

[Razgovory]

Syria was never a satellite of Iran.  Allies, yes.  Satellite, no.

Haven't the Iranians shipped in troops to Syria on the sly to help put down the rebellion?

Rumors are a dime a dozen in the Middle East.