Canada "too small" to develop Northwest Passage shipping, diplomat says

[Viking]

I think the infrastructure required might be a fleet of 10-20 heavy ice breakers along with 10-20 safe harbours capable of supplying and repairing the same ice breakers as well as sheltering any ships that might seek to make the passage.

Then the Canadians are being sensible; it is premature to make that kind of investment.

Basically the NW (or NE) passage investments need to be compared to running PANAMAX ships only, the political risk of using Suez and the costs of expanding either canal (with the ship size and political limitations that would entail).

[The Minsky Moment]

Basically the NW (or NE) passage investments need to be compared to running PANAMAX ships only, the political risk of using Suez and the costs of expanding either canal (with the ship size and political limitations that would entail).

But how is that the correct comparison from Canada's point of view?
Canada would bear the full cost of upgrading its northern infrastructure - not the case of canal expansion costs.

[Siege]

What are the weather projections?
How long this thawing will go on until the next Ice Age (short or long) begins?

The last short one was in the middle ages, right?

[Josephus]

They should have got the rust proofing plan when they bought the subs. Yeah, you pay a bit extra at the start, but it saves down the road.

[Viking]

Basically the NW (or NE) passage investments need to be compared to running PANAMAX ships only, the political risk of using Suez and the costs of expanding either canal (with the ship size and political limitations that would entail).

But how is that the correct comparison from Canada's point of view?
Canada would bear the full cost of upgrading its northern infrastructure - not the case of canal expansion costs.

Both the NW passage and an increased panama canal have value to the shipping companies. It's the increased value to the shippers that needs to be compared to the cost to canada of building the infrastructure. So, yeah, the comparison is relevant from Canada's point of view. The NW passage would be a service to world shipping rather than a improvement in local canadian infrastructure.

The shipper moving freight from the north atlantic to the north pacific has multiple options around the capes, through the canals and through the passages. Canals are shortest but require smaller ships, round the capes is longest but has no size or safety restrictions, through the passages will require new shipping standards as well as fees to operate and maintain ice-breakers and ports along the way.

The NW passage is not only competing with the Russians they are competing with both canals and both capes. A container is a container is a container, that is the commodity. (or bulk or liquids) Time is also a factor (which is why the BDI has differing prices for SUEZMAX, PANAMAZ, CAPEMAX (unlimited size), CHINAMAX (fits certain ports) and HANDYMAX (smaller ships often with self loading capability)).

Those should all be relevant factors for Canada.

[crazy canuck]

What are the weather projections?
How long this thawing will go on until the next Ice Age (short or long) begins?

The last short one was in the middle ages, right?

Estimates vary widely but irc 30-50 years out the passage could reliably be ice free 6 months of the year.  A few years ago it was ice free for a brief period of time which started the whole debate.

Who knows.  30 years ago climate scientists were warning about a coming ice age.  All we really know is climate changes occur - sometimes dramatically.  I am not so sure we know enough to reliably predict how things will be 30-50 years out let alone when the next cooling event might occur.

[crazy canuck]

Those should all be relevant factors for Canada.

If the Northwest Passage ever becomes viable as an actual passage way those will become relevant factors.  But they are not relevant right now.  Right now the relevant factor is whether Canada has soveriegn control over the passage.  And that is really the point of the aricle.

[Viking]

Who knows.  30 years ago climate scientists were warning about a coming ice age.  All we really know is climate changes occur - sometimes dramatically.  I am not so sure we know enough to reliably predict how things will be 30-50 years out let alone when the next cooling event might occur.

Scientists do. 30 years ago much less was known and inferior research tools were available. It is not that as time progresses what we know changes back and forth. We learn more and more and clarify and understand the nature of things better. We will not all of a sudden change our minds and declare the world to be flat again. We simply get more and more precise in our knowledge as time passes, the shape of the world does not swing between flat and round, to went from flat to round to orange shaped to pear shaped, each shape being more and more accurate. At the same time we know more and more about what factors affect climate and how much these factors affect climate we become better and better at understanding and predicting future climate.

[Siege]

The little ice age:


"The Little Ice Age brought colder winters to parts of Europe and North America. Farms and villages in the Swiss Alps were destroyed by encroaching glaciers during the mid-17th century.[17] Canals and rivers in Great Britain and the Netherlands were frequently frozen deeply enough to support ice skating and winter festivals.[17] The first River Thames frost fair was in 1607; the last in 1814, although changes to the bridges and the addition of an embankment affected the river flow and depth, hence diminishing the possibility of freezes. Freezing of the Golden Horn and the southern section of the Bosphorus took place in 1622. In 1658, a Swedish army marched across the Great Belt to Denmark to invade Copenhagen. The Baltic Sea froze over, enabling sledge rides from Poland to Sweden, with seasonal inns built on the way.[18] The winter of 1794-1795 was particularly harsh when the French invasion army under Pichegru could march on the frozen rivers of the Netherlands, while the Dutch fleet was fixed in the ice in Den Helder harbour. In the winter of 1780, New York Harbor froze, allowing people to walk from Manhattan to Staten Island. Sea ice surrounding Iceland extended for miles in every direction, closing harbors to shipping."



Wow. Way cooler than now.

[Razgovory]

I don't think anyone considers the 17th century medieval.

[crazy canuck]

Who knows.  30 years ago climate scientists were warning about a coming ice age.  All we really know is climate changes occur - sometimes dramatically.  I am not so sure we know enough to reliably predict how things will be 30-50 years out let alone when the next cooling event might occur.

Scientists do. 30 years ago much less was known and inferior research tools were available. It is not that as time progresses what we know changes back and forth. We learn more and more and clarify and understand the nature of things better. We will not all of a sudden change our minds and declare the world to be flat again. We simply get more and more precise in our knowledge as time passes, the shape of the world does not swing between flat and round, to went from flat to round to orange shaped to pear shaped, each shape being more and more accurate. At the same time we know more and more about what factors affect climate and how much these factors affect climate we become better and better at understanding and predicting future climate.

Granted we wont say the world if flat or that the sun revolves around the earth.  But what the hell does that tell us about our current ability to predict when the NW passage will become ice free with sufficient certainty to start pouring billions of dollars in infrastructure costs into the North.  You are not a member of the US congress by any chance are you?  This is beginning to sound more and more like something they might do.

[Viking]

Who knows.  30 years ago climate scientists were warning about a coming ice age.  All we really know is climate changes occur - sometimes dramatically.  I am not so sure we know enough to reliably predict how things will be 30-50 years out let alone when the next cooling event might occur.

Scientists do. 30 years ago much less was known and inferior research tools were available. It is not that as time progresses what we know changes back and forth. We learn more and more and clarify and understand the nature of things better. We will not all of a sudden change our minds and declare the world to be flat again. We simply get more and more precise in our knowledge as time passes, the shape of the world does not swing between flat and round, to went from flat to round to orange shaped to pear shaped, each shape being more and more accurate. At the same time we know more and more about what factors affect climate and how much these factors affect climate we become better and better at understanding and predicting future climate.

Granted we wont say the world if flat or that the sun revolves around the earth.  But what the hell does that tell us about our current ability to predict when the NW passage will become ice free with sufficient certainty to start pouring billions of dollars in infrastructure costs into the North.  You are not a member of the US congress by any chance are you?  This is beginning to sound more and more like something they might do.

You were suggesting that the previous less good science which predicted an ice age 30 years ago could return. That is what I was criticizing.

[Razgovory]

When did people think the Earth was pear shaped?

[Viking]

When did people think the Earth was pear shaped?

When GPS satellites showed us that the southern hemisphere is a few meters fatter than the northern hemisphere. It has something to do with the southern hemisphere having more ocean.

[viper37]

Who knows.  30 years ago climate scientists were warning about a coming ice age.

it's a common myth, since only a few, and not really scientists, were warning about a coming ice age, and it was longer than 30 years ago, as I've heard about the warming effect ever since I was in high-school.  It's more like 50 years ago.

There are still lunatics warning us about the climate getting colder.  Doesn't mean they qualify as scientist just because they say so.