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[Josquius]

Yeah, I don't think there's any doubt the assasination was directly ordered by Joffrey.
As I said (did I? or was that just on the execution?) the only room for Littlefinger being involved would be him prodding Joffrey, saying his dad doesn't like him very much and he needs to prove himself to be a better son so Robert will pay attention,etc...

[grumbler]

There is a reason why Baelish would want Joffrey to try to kill Bran.

Agreed.  As it was in his interests to have Joffrey kill Ned, and then to poison Joffrey to make sure that little discussion never came into the open.  Of course, he would have had Joffrey killed anyway, but I am sure Baelish appreciate the economy of assassinating someone he had to murder in any case.

[Berkut]

You people lack imagination, clearly.

Baelish probably sent Joffrey a personal and secret invisible raven with a coded message that only Joffrey would be able to understand along with the dagger (it was an African raven, of course, so could easily carry the dagger) and had him try to kill Bran.

[Eddie Teach]

You all seem to be discounting the possibility that it was remote mind control and Joffrey was never involved at all.

[Grey Fox]

Reverse-warg?

[viper37]

Yeah, because Ravens are such a secure way of communicating, Littlefinger would come up with this complex plan to take advantage of a situation he knows almost nothing about and try to murder a 7 year old boy. You might as weil just have him randomly pick someone to murder in order to raise some chaos - how is murdering Bran anymore useful than Sansa, Arya, Joffrey, Renly, or some other random noble?

LF being involved simply does not make sense given what we know already. A raven takes time, it isn't an email. It isn't secure. It transmits very little information. It is not plausible to think that LF would come up with such a plan, get it transmitted to someone already ready to engage in some killing, all in a matter of a day or two, and all based on a paucity of information that amounts to nothing more than "Hey, one of the Stark kids fell out of a tower and is likely to die".

Why would Bran being in an accident incent LF to such a course of action, when Bran *not* being in an accident would (presumably) not?

If LF couldn't talk to Joffrey himself, he wouldn't try anything like this.  As you note, too many things could go wrong and his secret is that he is secretive.

Yeah, this originally came up in a manner that actually made sense. If LF could talk to Joffrey, then it makes some sense - you can see how having Joffrey try to kill a STark kid could help out Baelish, whether it works or not.

Of course, the timing of that simply doesn't work.

Why people then want to turn around and drop that idea, and just presume that Baelish tries to have Bran killed himself makes no sense. Even ignoring the timing of it, the security of it, and the logistical problems, there just isn't any *reason* for Baelish to want Bran dead.

There is a reason why Baelish would want Joffrey to try to kill Bran. There is no reason for Baelish to want to kill Bran himself, or order Bran to be killed himself.

I ruled out Jaime because he wouldn't frame his brother.  His father would, but like LF he wasn't there.  And like you I think it's hard to plot the assassination attempt with your (former?) dagger while being in King's Landing.  Was it not for the dagger, he could have done it, upon being informed, he probably would have spies in the King's camp, and it's just a matter of paying someone to do it.  But the dagger makes it impossible.

I rulet out Cersei because she seemed a bit shocked at her brother's attempt to kill the Stark kid, even though she understood it was necessary.

Joffrey could have done it, even though I doubt he tought about it himself, but where did the dagger come from?  I'm pretty sure it wasn't Tyrion's dagger.

[crazy canuck]

Berkut, I have no idea why you insist on saying LF had no information.  He is amongst the best informed people in the books - perhaps the best.  To suggest that he paid no attention to the goings on of the Kings progress to Winterfell and back is nonsense.

Actually, to suggest that would be a strawman, not nonsense. I never claimed Baelish was not well informed, I said he would have little information that would lead him to decide that killing Bran would be useful.

Even with that qualification your assertion that he had no information is absurd given the amount of spies all the court notables have around the king.  The condition that he physically speak to Joffrey rather than communicate by Raven is based completely on the assumption that LF would be fearful that he might be discovered.  But that view discounts the subtle manner in which LF influences the actions at Court.  It also assumes that LF isnt crafty enough to communicate with his spies in a manner not easily detectable - for example using code, using a false identity so even if detected it can be blamed on another.  The list goes on.  But, as I stated in my first response to you - one must have a certain degree of imagination and not be constrained by artificial restrictions not found in the books.

[Berkut]

What are these "artifical restrictions not found in the books" you keep mentioning?

Do you mean like actual real contraints on people, like the fact that you can't make decisions on information you don't have?

Rather than complain about my lack of imagination, how about instead you actually address the reasons I gave that make it almost impossible for Baelish to have anything to do with the attempt on Bran's life after Jaime tried to kill him?

For example, why would Baelish wish to kill Bran, and how does Bran's "accident" incent Baelish to have him killed, when he apparently did not want him killed prior to the accident? Please remember that at this point Baelish, even if he has access to your magic, super fast, and completely secure ravens, does not even know that Bran's injury is the result of anything other than an accident, and he also thinks Bran is very likely to die anyway (asssuming he even knows that there has been an accident of course).

This is just one of many, many problems with your theory, of course.

[grumbler]

Even with that qualification your assertion that he had no information is absurd given the amount of spies all the court notables have around the king.  The condition that he physically speak to Joffrey rather than communicate by Raven is based completely on the assumption that LF would be fearful that he might be discovered.  But that view discounts the subtle manner in which LF influences the actions at Court.  It also assumes that LF isnt crafty enough to communicate with his spies in a manner not easily detectable - for example using code, using a false identity so even if detected it can be blamed on another.  The list goes on.  But, as I stated in my first response to you - one must have a certain degree of imagination and not be constrained by artificial restrictions not found in the books.

The problem with this assertion is that it assumes that some Baelish spy is going to (1) be able to communicate all the particulars to Baelish back at King's Landing (unlikely given the limits of the technology available), (2) get a complete set of instructions back from Baelish (again overcoming technology), and (3) have the ear of Joffrey to the extent that he could get Joffrey to not only secretly send an assassin after Bran, but to make sure that the assassin used a specific weapon.  I submit that the likelihood of all these being true is vanishingly small, and that the lack of logic is a bigger hamper to your analysis of this case than Berkut's lack of imagination is to his.

Any assertion that is "based completely on the assumption that LF would be fearful that he might be discovered" is probably a plausible one, and any that is not is probably an implausible one.  Baelish's power is almost completely based on the pretense that he has no real power at all - that he is a puppet, not a master.

[Berkut]

Even with that qualification your assertion that he had no information is absurd

What is absurd is your insistence that I said something I never claimed. Where have I said Baelish has "no information"?

He has the same information everyone has at that point, at most. A son of Ned Stark had an accident and is likely dying. Are you suggesting he would know more than this from these super spies he has around the king? Are you suggesting that someone other than Cersei or Jaime know that Brans injury was an attempt to murder him? And that person told Baelish? And Baelish then sent that person a directive to finish off Bran? And, btw, if the cutpurse had succeeded, nobody would have known who tried to have Bran killed since Catelyn was not supposed to be in the room, and hence the only thin reason given for Baelish to have Bran killed (the attempt to implicate the Lannisters in the death) would not even have happened?

Perhaps I do lack your imagination...

[Siege]

Considering the "assassin" was a complete moron, it makes little sense that Littlefinger would employ him, and much more sense that Joffrey just shoved a dagger and a bag of silver into some random guy's hands and sent him on his way.

What's that in your avatar?

That's not what I think it is, right?

[crazy canuck]

The problem with this assertion is that it assumes that some Baelish spy is going to (1) be able to communicate all the particulars to Baelish back at King's Landing (unlikely given the limits of the technology available)

This is the same problem that plagues Berkut's assumption.  Why is it that a LF spy cannot simply report by Raven 1) Jamie and Cersie went to a deserted tower for you know what (or some other code)); 2 Stark boy almost killed when he fell from same tower. 3) prognosis of the boy is currently unknown but he may survive 4)King has voiced his opinion that the boy should be put out of his misery.

The spy doesnt have to know how the boy had the fall ie that Jamie pushed him and the spy doesnt even have to know that the boy might have seen what Jamie and Cersie were up to.  As stated many times the benefit to LF is simply to create chaos and wedges between the Hand to be and the King's family.  Easily done by Raven.

Now you might say that Jamie and Cersie were able to find an go to the deserted tower with nobody noticing but that is asking a bit much to suggest that the Queen can simply disappear with no one (especially as spy who task is to watch her) noticing.

(2) get a complete set of instructions back from Baelish (again overcoming technology),

I am not sure what you mean by a complete set of instructions means.  There is no need for more than something like.  "instruct X to obtain The Dagger; give it to Y and have Y kill the boy with the dagger after the King has left."  There could be a large number of variations on this theme.  Pretty easy to do using Raven.  Not sure what the hang up is with "overcoming technology" since Raven was the dominant method of communicating in the books.

If you want to stick with the Joffrey did it angle its still easily explained by the same logic given by the Joffrey did it advocates though number of possible communications that could have been made including "Lay a series of hints/reminders for Joffrey that the King thinks the boy should be put out of his misery; watch Joffrey - if he arranges for such a thing to be done make sure the assassin is given The Dagger."

(3) have the ear of Joffrey to the extent that he could get Joffrey to not only secretly send an assassin after Bran, but to make sure that the assassin used a specific weapon.

If you stick with the Joffrey did is scenario, Joffrey doesnt have to give the assassin the dagger.  The dagger can be obtained by the spy and given to the assassin with instructions to use it.  Simple enough.

Any assertion that is "based completely on the assumption that LF would be fearful that he might be discovered" is probably a plausible one, and any that is not is probably an implausible one.  Baelish's power is almost completely based on the pretense that he has no real power at all - that he is a puppet, not a master

Any assertion that LF is fearful has be judged in the context of everything else he does in the books.  He is not a character that lets fear of his actions stand in his way.  The fact that LF's power is based completely on his ability to manipulate is exactly why he would try to take advantage of this situation.  You have not addressed his ability to communicate in code, misdirect responsibility if found out (which he does in other situations) and his ability to know everything about everyone and who does communicate with his network of spies reguarly.  Surely someone with that knowledge and ability can send a rather simple series of communications through a system already planned in advance in order to keep tabs on what occurs while the King's court is away on this rather significant trip.

[crazy canuck]

What is absurd is your insistence that I said something I never claimed. Where have I said Baelish has "no information"?

You are right.  You said he had almost no information, which for the reasons already stated is just as absurd.

So he has a means of spelling out what he wants in a manner that is clear enough to trigger an attempt to assassinate a kid on almost no information

[grumbler]

This is the same problem that plagues Berkut's assumption.  Why is it that a LF spy cannot simply report by Raven 1) Jamie and Cersie went to a deserted tower for you know what (or some other code)); 2 Stark boy almost killed when he fell from same tower. 3) prognosis of the boy is currently unknown but he may survive 4)King has voiced his opinion that the boy should be put out of his misery.

The problem with this question is the problem with your entire argument; this information doesn't motivate Baelish to do anything.  Why would it motivate him to try to murder the child of his childhood sweetheart?

The spy doesnt have to know how the boy had the fall ie that Jamie pushed him and the spy doesnt even have to know that the boy might have seen what Jamie and Cersie were up to.  As stated many times the benefit to LF is simply to create chaos and wedges between the Hand to be and the King's family.  Easily done by Raven.

Assassinating Bran does nothing of the sort.

I am not sure what you mean by a complete set of instructions means.  There is no need for more than something like.  "instruct X to obtain The Dagger; give it to Y and have Y kill the boy with the dagger after the King has left."  There could be a large number of variations on this theme.  Pretty easy to do using Raven.  Not sure what the hang up is with "overcoming technology" since Raven was the dominant method of communicating in the books.

Why would Baelish do this?  You aren't making any sense.  How does X obtain The Dagger?  Why does Baelish want Bran dead?  I had supposed that Baelish is setting up Joffrey.  You are now supposing that Baelish is acting directly agains Bran, for no apparent reason.  Why couldn't this be Robert, in your scenario?  Far more motive and far more opportunity.

If you want to stick with the Joffrey did it angle its still easily explained by the same logic given by the Joffrey did it advocates though number of possible communications that could have been made including "Lay a series of hints/reminders for Joffrey that the King thinks the boy should be put out of his misery; watch Joffrey - if he arranges for such a thing to be done make sure the assassin is given The Dagger."

Who is this spy you think has that kind of access to the Crown Prince?  If he/she has such high-level access, how does he/she have the time to watch the Queen 24/7 and the prince 24/7 while rendezvousing with assassins hired by the Prince 9and who don't know the spy therefor, but will accept a knife from him/her?)  Too many holes.

If you stick with the Joffrey did is scenario, Joffrey doesnt have to give the assassin the dagger.  The dagger can be obtained by the spy and given to the assassin with instructions to use it.  Simple enough.

  Why would this assassin even listen to the spy; hell, the assassin would assassinate the spy as soon as the assassin knew the spy was aware of the plot!

Any assertion that LF is fearful has be judged in the context of everything else he does in the books.  He is not a character that lets fear of his actions stand in his way.  The fact that LF's power is based completely on his ability to manipulate is exactly why he would try to take advantage of this situation.  You have not addressed his ability to communicate in code, misdirect responsibility if found out (which he does in other situations) and his ability to know everything about everyone and who does communicate with his network of spies reguarly.  Surely someone with that knowledge and ability can send a rather simple series of communications through a system already planned in advance in order to keep tabs on what occurs while the King's court is away on this rather significant trip.

I am assuming that Baelish is logical and understands cost-benefit analysis.  You are assuming he takes massive risks with little payoff (in the case of Joffrey ordering the assassination) to no payoff at all (in the case of Baelish randomly assassinating Bran).  I'd say my view of Baelish is more in keeping with what we know of him from the books than yours.

[Berkut]

There has never been any indication given anywhere at any time that anyone knew about Jaime and Cersei together in the tower room, or connected their tryst with Bran falling. This would be completely new information that has never once been revealed in some 8000 pages of text.

You are just making things up out of whole cloth at this point. You have created a super spy/assassin to go along with Baelish the super-villain.

Maybe Baelish is Jaqen, and was in the tower room itself all along, disguised as a piece of rubble! Use your imagination!