I TOLD YOU SO!

[Barrister]

Does this mean you are finally out of the REAL hockey thread?

V

why on earth would I do that?   

Now I have a real, living team to talk about.  Not just hope and memories.   

[Jacob]

I never said they would never come back. I just said you were annoying the shit out of everybody by posting 15 updates a day about Glendale council meetings nobody cared a flying fuck about. 

And that was the truth. Maybe you can post minutes of Montreal city council meetings in response to anything BB posts about his new team.

[crazy canuck]

Happy for BB, even more happy he started another thread about this rather than clogging up the important thread.

[Barrister]

Happy for BB, even more happy he started another thread about this rather than clogging up the important thread.

So when are you going to admit you were wrong?   



And I don't understand how you guys don't find this stuff fascinating.  All this big money behind the scenes look at the sport is very interesting.  I imagine I'm going to continue to follow the Phoenix train wreck until they wind up moving to Quebec City.  I might even keep posting about it.

[crazy canuck]

Happy for BB, even more happy he started another thread about this rather than clogging up the important thread.

So when are you going to admit you were wrong?   

When I am wrong I will let you know.  My prediction continues to be that Winnipeg will not be able to support an NHL team in the long term. They will probably be able to sell the necessary number of season tickets to secure the approval of the league but afer the initial euphoria wears off it will be harder and harder to sell those tickets as the team continues to lose.

The NHL had no choice but to go to Winnipeg. There was simply no other city that could take them.  It was either that or let the team fold.  Frankly the latter option was probably the better long term option.

So, in answer to your question about why this news is not interesting - it is for the same reason that takeovers of failed businesses are rarely interesting other than for the people directly involved.

[Barrister]

Happy for BB, even more happy he started another thread about this rather than clogging up the important thread.

So when are you going to admit you were wrong?   

When I am wrong I will let you know.  My prediction continues to be that Winnipeg will not be able to support an NHL team in the long term. They will probably be able to sell the necessary number of season tickets to secure the approval of the league but afer the initial euphoria wears off it will be harder and harder to sell those tickets as the team continues to lose.

The NHL had no choice but to go to Winnipeg. There was simply no other city that could take them.  It was either that or let the team fold.  Frankly the latter option was probably the better long term option.

So, in answer to your question about why this news is not interesting - it is for the same reason that takeovers of failed businesses are rarely interesting other than for the people directly involved.

Apparently what they say is true - Haters just gotta hate.

I'll agree with you that the NHL had no choice but to go to Winnipeg, but that was always TNSE's plan - put together an NHL-ready arena and NHL-ready organization, and wait for the NHL to come calling.

Winnipeg was always capable of supporting an NHL team.  What screwed us over in the 90s was that the city, province, and Shenkarow talked for years about the need for a new arena, but never did anything about it.  When crunch time came in the 90s they crunched the numbers are the team could survive in a new arena, and plans were drawn up to build (and pay for) a new arena, but it foundered over nobody being willing or able to pay for the team's ongoing losses until the arena was built.

Plus - David Thomson, despite his flowery answer at the press conference about how much he loves Winnipeg because he once visited a Bay store he owned, isn't in this for love of Winnipeg.  He's a businessman, and figures he can make money on this deal.  I trust you won't be offended if I trust his business sense over yours.

[crazy canuck]

He's a businessman, and figures he can make money on this deal.  I trust you won't be offended if I trust his business sense over yours.

He wont be the first successful billonaire who thought they could make money on an NHL team only to be disappointed and he wont be the last.  Truth is there are few profitable NHL teams. Every other businessman made a poor business choice.  But when it comes to owning sports teams there is a lot of prestige involved and that helps the bottom line woes.

Also, I do think Thompson is a very good businessman which is why I think it unlikely he will fund a losing enterprise.  We dont know what the terms of the partnership agreement are.  But if you do think he is primarly using his business sense then the chances of me being right increase since he probably entered into a deal with little risk to him and the ability to bail if things are not profitable.

[Barrister]

He wont be the first successful billonaire who thought they could make money on an NHL team only to be disappointed and he wont be the last.  Truth is there are few profitable NHL teams. Every other businessman made a poor business choice.  But when it comes to owning sports teams there is a lot of prestige involved and that helps the bottom line woes.

Also, I do think Thompson is a very good businessman which is why I think it unlikely he will fund a losing enterprise.  We dont know what the terms of the partnership agreement are.  But if you do think he is primarly using his business sense then the chances of me being right increase since he probably entered into a deal with little risk to him and the ability to bail if things are not profitable.

I heard on the radio some speculation about what Thomson's (No P) angle is in all of this.  They speculated it was a plan to flip the team into southern Ontario.

They're right he has an angle, but S Ontario isn't it.

How did Thomson get involved in this in the first place?

His Real Estate development company, Osmington, owned the old Eaton's building land that the MTS centre was built on.

Thomson's angle is real estate.

Land in downtown Winnipeg is cheap.  Compared to other Canadian cities, it is dirt cheap.  And he (and Chipman) have been buying.  With an NHL team drawing 15,000 fans downtown for 41 nights a year, that is going to draw a lot of business.  That will drive up the price of real estate all around the arena, and will draw in new businesses.  And that causes Thomson's real estate investments to pay off.

The team doesn't have to make money for this to work.  It just has to break even, or keep losses to a minimum.  The money gets made elsewhere.


And finally, Thomson has very much been a silent investor in this.  This is the first time I ever saw him in person connected to Winnipeg.  At the press conference he didn't say anything, and only spoke in response to a question from the Free Press (and for the record he ducked the question).  I don't see him as being in this for the prestige.  Besides he's Canada's richest man - how much more prestige does he need?

[crazy canuck]

I see, so this could really just be a very sophisticated pump and dump.  buy up cheap land nobody wants.  Bring in a team likely to fail but fans in Winnipeg wont care about that - they just want a team - so the up front cost is going to be low.  Live through a couple of years for values to rise then sell the land before the team fails and land prices go back to normal.

Then when the team eventually fails move them to another market in which you have bought up cheap land - rinse and repeat.  Brilliant.

[Barrister]

I see, so this could really just be a very sophisticated pump and dump.  buy up cheap land nobody wants.  Bring in a team likely to fail but fans in Winnipeg wont care about that - they just want a team - so the up front cost is going to be low.  Live through a couple of years for values to rise then sell the land before the team fails and land prices go back to normal.

Then when the team eventually fails move them to another market in which you have bought up cheap land - rinse and repeat.  Brilliant.

It wouldn't be the first time that's been done in pro sports (see Steve Ellman in Phoenix), but is not at all how the Thomson's carry on business.

It's more buy up cheap land, bring in a bunch of successful businesses and make money leasing the land to them.  That's an investment that makes money year after year.

[crazy canuck]

It's more buy up cheap land, bring in a bunch of successful businesses and make money leasing the land to them.  That's an investment that makes money year after year.

Except you are assuming the Jets are going to be successful and will not fold eventually. Like I said, he is a good businessman and as a good businessman he is not going to be betting the long shot but he will put himself in a position to profit either way.

The mistake you are making is assuming that simply because he has made this investment that a sound long term business case can be made for the hockey team.  But that is not necessarily so.  He can make money even if they fail.

[viper37]

Not one person has been man enough to admit they were wrong about this day. 

Katmai, CC, PRC, Viper, HVC, Zoupa, Ed Anger, I'm waiting.   

I will admit I had serious doubt it was going to happen, and I was wrong
And I am glad I was wrong.

And I do believe that a hockey franchise in Winnipeg can be successful, given the new conditions of the market since 1996.  Same goes for Quebec city.

[Barrister]

Not one person has been man enough to admit they were wrong about this day. 

Katmai, CC, PRC, Viper, HVC, Zoupa, Ed Anger, I'm waiting.   

I will admit I had serious doubt it was going to happen, and I was wrong
And I am glad I was wrong.

If you guys can get that building built, I believe you're next.

[Neil]

CC is fighting hard to playerhate as best he can.

[crazy canuck]

Hopefully we dont have another crash so this thread can be accessed in 5-10 years to see whether BB's optimism is justified.