Chinese Entrepreneurs Are Leaving China

[Monoriu]

Heck, I have done it myself.

You did it to get a Canadian passport, not to work abroad.

So?  Like I said, Chinese are emmigrating for a huge variety of reasons, and grabbing passports is certainly one of the most common reasons.  A foreign passport is a huge deal to a Chinese.  It is a big status symbol, a convenient travelling tool (visa free status to a lot of places), a backup hiding place when shit hits the fan, a magnet for finding a good wife/husband, better job prospects (the company can send you overseas without worrying about job visas) and enhanced protection (the government will think twice before arresting a US citizen, for example.  It isn't much, but it is better than nothing). 

[Monoriu]

Seems like you are talking about wire transfers here, not bank notes?

Yes, but the wire transfers can be turned into bank notes in short order. Of course, that was in $CDN not RMB, so I guess that doesn't show that you can withdraw RMB 5 million (or whatever) from your bank account without too much trouble, should you want to.

I'll ask and get back to you on that

The Chinese have capital and foreign exchange controls.  They cannot legally bring more than a small amount of money, cash or otherwise, outside China every day.  I think the limit is about US$1k per day.  In HK, we cannot legally buy more than RMB$20,000 per day. 

Of course, there are a lot of other ways to do that.  It is said that there is a huge underground banking system in Shenzhen. 

[Pat]

Question.

You have the ageing saving for retirement, lending out money, investing in the young who are forming families, buying cars and houses (borrowing money). Chinese don't trust investing in China. China has a one-child policy, and birth rates are plummeting elsewhere as well. Too many ageing people and not enough young people to invest the money in = formation of bubbles because there simply aren't enough valid investment options. Feasible hypothesis?

[Admiral Yi]

Question.

You have the ageing saving for retirement, lending out money, investing in the young who are forming families, buying cars and houses (borrowing money). Chinese don't trust investing in China. China has a one-child policy, and birth rates are plummeting elsewhere as well. Too many ageing people and not enough young people to invest the money in = formation of bubbles because there simply aren't enough valid investment options. Feasible hypothesis?

Except I don't think China has much (if any) of a consumer credit market.

[Monoriu]

Question.

You have the ageing saving for retirement, lending out money, investing in the young who are forming families, buying cars and houses (borrowing money). Chinese don't trust investing in China. China has a one-child policy, and birth rates are plummeting elsewhere as well. Too many ageing people and not enough young people to invest the money in = formation of bubbles because there simply aren't enough valid investment options. Feasible hypothesis?

What is the hypothesis?

[alfred russel]

Actually, that's a question I wouldn't mind to put to the more economic minded languishites: does the fact that most of the properties in the Chinese driven property bubble are paid for in full (rather than with mortagages) alter the likely ramifications of the bubble bursting?

Most certainly, I would think.  The most devastating effect of bubbles bursting by far is that it forces everyone to deleverage at once, and do desperate things to get some liquidity.  When you don't owe anyone money, you're much less concerned with what is happening to other people.

I think this is incorrect. Housing is relatively illiquid, so it may not take a lot of homebuyers to cause a big runup in home prices. Still, I assume the vast majority of Canadian homes are not Chinese investment properties that were paid for in cash. If it goes on for long enough, you are still going to end up with a situation where the vast majority homes were purchased with debt and at bubble prices run up by speculators.

[Admiral Yi]

Canada will be saved from a bubble by their ingenious adjustable rate mortgage system.

[MadImmortalMan]

Canada will be saved from a bubble by their ingenious adjustable rate mortgage system.

So how do we fix school loans? Make the school cosign for every one?

[Admiral Yi]

So how do we fix school loans? Make the school cosign for every one?

Uh, what now?