[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Barrister]

The Bloc cannot compete with a left wing party that might win the whole thing.

I never realized how dominant Ontario was in Canadian politics.

You haven't been paying attention then. 

Yup, it has just over one third of all the seats.  It would be like combining California, New York, Florida and Texas into one mega-state for it's proportional impact.

[viper37]

You can see the polls so far:
http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

I learned my lesson - I'm not saying the NDP can't or won't win.   

All I'm saying is that it is impossible for both the NDP and the BQ to do well at the same time.  They are competing for the same voters in Quebec.

And your link suggests the BQ will, at present, get zero seats.

I don't think the Bloc will have more than 4-5 MPs.

And Valmy is right, the Bloc can't competer with a left-wing party than might win.   Quebecers are mostly camped to the left of the political spectrum.  The Bloc's appeal may have been a protest vote at first, under Bouchard, but ever since Duceppe replaced him it's been clearly leaning to the left, and even more with the Conservatives come back.

The moment the NPD appeared as a credible alternative, most of the left abandonned the Bloc.  The big Quebec unions have recently ditched the Bloc in favour of the NDP (or officially "the candidate who stands the most chances of beating Harper" except the Liberal Party candidate, of course.)

[crazy canuck]

I agree with BB.  There cannot be both a BQ win in Quebec and an NDP victory.  If polls start showing the NDP are losing seats in Quebec the anybody but the Conservatives voters will likely shift to the Liberals.

[Malthus]

I learned my lesson - I'm not saying the NDP can't or won't win.   

Never did hear about whether your hat was tasty. 

[Barrister]

I learned my lesson - I'm not saying the NDP can't or won't win.   

Never did hear about whether your hat was tasty. 

All I could taste were my bitter, bitter tears.

[crazy canuck]

I learned my lesson - I'm not saying the NDP can't or won't win.   

Never did hear about whether your hat was tasty. 

All I could taste were my bitter, bitter tears.

I have not yet tasted my beer

[Josephus]

The Bloc cannot compete with a left wing party that might win the whole thing.

I never realized how dominant Ontario was in Canadian politics.

Us Ontarians don't really believe any other province matters at all

[Josephus]

On a scale of 1-10 how much of an effect do you think Duffy will have on this election?

[crazy canuck]

To soon to say.  I think the critical thing is whether the reasons for decision are given prior to the election.

[Malthus]

On a scale of 1-10 how much of an effect do you think Duffy will have on this election?

As far as scandals go, my prediction is that this one peaked too soon to have maximum impact on the election. So closer to the lower end of the scale.

[Valmy]

It sure seems like this is going to be a dark day for the Conservatives, but then I thought that was going to happen in the UK elections as well and instead the Tories won even more decisively than before. So what do I know?

[Malthus]

It sure seems like this is going to be a dark day for the Conservatives, but then I thought that was going to happen in the UK elections as well and instead the Tories won even more decisively than before. So what do I know?

In Canada, the fact that this is a true three-way race makes everything very unpredictable. For a while there, it looked like it might reduce down to a two-way race, with the Liberals completely knocked out of the running.

The real gamble I think is how the economy is trending when the election actually happens. The Cons have had scandals galore, but for them to lose the incumbent advantage, Canadians have to be convinced that they are bad managers. Even though it is less than fair, governments tend to get judged on that matter by how well the country is doing, even though their actual control over that is quite limited.

[crazy canuck]

On a scale of 1-10 how much of an effect do you think Duffy will have on this election?

As far as scandals go, my prediction is that this one peaked too soon to have maximum impact on the election. So closer to the lower end of the scale.

That's why I think the date the findings of the Court are important.  Right now there is a mass of conflicting evidence so everyone can be reinforced in their own bias.  If the Court finds as a fact that the PMO or even the PM did something inappropriate then that might change the view of some Conservative supporters.  But right now the trial is not scheduled to end until after the election.

The facts which are not disputed have, as Malthus pointed out, been known for a long time and are already reflected in the polls.

[crazy canuck]

It sure seems like this is going to be a dark day for the Conservatives, but then I thought that was going to happen in the UK elections as well and instead the Tories won even more decisively than before. So what do I know?

In Canada, the fact that this is a true three-way race makes everything very unpredictable. For a while there, it looked like it might reduce down to a two-way race, with the Liberals completely knocked out of the running.

The real gamble I think is how the economy is trending when the election actually happens. The Cons have had scandals galore, but for them to lose the incumbent advantage, Canadians have to be convinced that they are bad managers. Even though it is less than fair, governments tend to get judged on that matter by how well the country is doing, even though their actual control over that is quite limited.

I agree with your second point.

In relation to the notion this is a three way race while the poll numbers look close you need to look at the regional breakdown.  The only reason the Liberals are close in the national polls is because of their strong support in the Maritimes.  The problem for the Liberals is there are relatively few seats there.

[Malthus]

I agree with your second point.

In relation to the notion this is a three way race while the poll numbers look close you need to look at the regional breakdown.  The only reason the Liberals are close in the national polls is because of their strong support in the Maritimes.  The problem for the Liberals is there are relatively few seats there.

You are probably right on that. I was just reacting, and maybe over-reacting, to the perception in the recent past that the Liberals had been rendered utterly inconsequential - to the point of wondering why the Cons even bothered to spend on attack ads against Trudeau. I guess they are hoping to shake disgruntled Liberal votes out of that (though I would have thought that if the Cons convince voters Trudeau is an empty suit, they are more likely to go NDP instead, making things worse for them!).