[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Barrister]

Latest seat projections according to threehundredeight.com:

NDP: 38
Wildrose: 34
PCs: 12
Liberals: 3

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/alberta.html

Basically, NDP is surging hard in Edmonton, polling an unbelieveable 59% of the vote.  Wildrose on the other hand is coming on strong in rural areas, polling at 42%.  Calgary is a toss-up with Wildrose, PCs and NDP all polling within a couple of points of 30%.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/surging-ndp-changes-contours-of-alberta-race-1.3050263

Looks like minority government territory barring any big shifts.  Which would be interesting territory.  NDP might have the most seats, but hard to imagine anyone forming a coalition with them.  Would Wildrose or the PCs support an NDP budget?

Wildrose and PCs - ideologically much closer to each other than to the NDP, however there's a lot of bad blood between them as well - and bad blood that goes back years.  This is a re-fight of the old Reform / PC split.

[crazy canuck]

The success of the NDP isn't that unbelievable to an outside observer

A minority NDP government would be very interesting.  If they bring in a budget that is widely viewed as reasonable would Wild Rose really anger the voters by forcing another election over ideological issues?

And I would get a beer. 

[Josephus]

It's a bad time for the NDP assuming power in Alberta I imagine. Given that the economy is not likely to recover anytime soon from the oil crisis, what would Alberta look like in four years?

[crazy canuck]

It's a bad time for the NDP assuming power in Alberta I imagine.

But also probably their best chance. 

[Barrister]

The success of the NDP isn't that unbelievable to an outside observer

A minority NDP government would be very interesting.  If they bring in a budget that is widely viewed as reasonable would Wild Rose really anger the voters by forcing another election over ideological issues?

And I would get a beer. 

But Wildrose is running a pretty basic platform - we will not raise your taxes.  Would be hard for them to vote for a budget that raises taxes.  Question would be what would the PCs do.

There's still lots of time to go.  The PCs are massively better resourced than the other two.  I fully expect the negative ads to start up any time.  And of course there's always the 2012 example.

[Neil]

An NDP government might be tolerable if it were dependent on the PCs to keep them from doing anything crazy.  I don't think I can say the same about the Wild Rose.

[crazy canuck]

The success of the NDP isn't that unbelievable to an outside observer

A minority NDP government would be very interesting.  If they bring in a budget that is widely viewed as reasonable would Wild Rose really anger the voters by forcing another election over ideological issues?

And I would get a beer. 

But Wildrose is running a pretty basic platform - we will not raise your taxes.  Would be hard for them to vote for a budget that raises taxes. 

Exactly, if the Wildrose lose the election and then bring down the NDP government on the very same issue fought in the election wouldn't that be viewed negatively by all non Wildrose core voters.

[PRC]

Latest seat projections according to threehundredeight.com:

NDP: 38
Wildrose: 34
PCs: 12
Liberals: 3

I wonder how Prentice is feeling about calling the election after seeing the poll numbers...

[Barrister]

The success of the NDP isn't that unbelievable to an outside observer

A minority NDP government would be very interesting.  If they bring in a budget that is widely viewed as reasonable would Wild Rose really anger the voters by forcing another election over ideological issues?

And I would get a beer. 

But Wildrose is running a pretty basic platform - we will not raise your taxes.  Would be hard for them to vote for a budget that raises taxes. 

Exactly, if the Wildrose lose the election and then bring down the NDP government on the very same issue fought in the election wouldn't that be viewed negatively by all non Wildrose core voters.

I dunno.  As always, it's all in how actions are perceived and presented.  Wouldn't people view negatively the fact the NDP brought in a budget and couldn't get it passed?

[Monoriu]

Anything and everything that the NDP does is evil 

[crazy canuck]

BB,  If a majority of Alberta voters would support Wildrose bringing down the government over the same issues argued in the election (ie no tax increases) then the strategy might succeed.  But my read of the polls and my view of the present politics of the Province tell me that is a risky assumption to make.

[Barrister]

BB,  If a majority of Alberta voters would support Wildrose bringing down the government over the same issues argued in the election (ie no tax increases) then the strategy might succeed.  But my read of the polls and my view of the present politics of the Province tell me that is a risky assumption to make.

While Wildrose's r'aison d'etre in this campaign is "we will not increase your taxes".  Jean was perceived as doing poorly in the debate because he kept to that talking point by hook or by crook.

While the NDP has said they'd raise taxes, that understandably hasn't been the focal point of their campaign.

It would be very difficult for a Wildrose official opposition to support a government budget raising taxes.

The only recent example I can think of where a minority government was quickly defeated in their first budget was 1979-1980 Joe Clark.  And it was the government that was punished in the subsequent election, not the opposition.


BY the way, here's an interesting profile on Wildrose's Brian Jean.  I literally knew almost none of this information.  Interesting background for the guy.

FORT MCMURRAY — Wildrose Leader Brian Jean, 52, is not a robot. He is not the lifeless automaton we saw during the televised leaders' debate last week. And he is not a broken record. He really can talk about things other than lowering our taxes.

When I meet him for coffee Sunday morning in his home riding of Fort McMurray-Conklin, he is friendly and engaging, a veritable encyclopedia of all things to do with Fort McMurray. He has lived here for almost 50 years and was the local Conservative MP from 2004-14. Another thing becomes clear as we talk. He is proud of his youth, one of hard work and little money where he put himself through law school in Australia. But he is equally proud of how, after returning to Alberta, he boomed right along with Fort McMurray and the oilsands.

He owns the building where we're having coffee and the building next door that houses his campaign office and the one next door to that where there's a radio station. He owns a nearby car wash and a parking lot. The RV he's using as his campaign bus is his own.

He likes to hunt and fish and even has a trap line. He lives in a comfortable but modest home that is surrounded by vehicles — a truck, motorbike, ATV and jet boat — that help him get outdoors.

It's as if the Wildrose deliberately set out to find the polar opposite to their despised former leader, the urbanized, highly polished, floor-crossing Danielle Smith.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/alberta-politics/Thomson+Wildrose+leader+Brian+Jean+finally/11010532/story.html

I only quoted the first few paragraphs - follow the link for more.

[crazy canuck]

The only recent example I can think of where a minority government was quickly defeated in their first budget was 1979-1980 Joe Clark.  And it was the government that was punished in the subsequent election, not the opposition.

Yes that is my point.  The Liberals took the government down when they were ahead in the polls.  I am not saying it cant happen.  I am saying it would only work if the popularity of the Wildrose increases in the interim.  And from what you are saying it seems the Wildrose would not act pragmatically but instead would simply make their decision as a matter of ideology.  That is the main reason I think they would fail - if you go back to my first post.

edit: but I do give Jean credit for conceding he was wrong to have opposed gay marriage back in the day.

[crazy canuck]

New report out saying that Canadians are in more debt and in greater numbers than ever before.  And this data was analyzed during the good times before the crash in oil prices.  I would like to see the political parties propose what they think has caused this and what they think should be done about it.  We could also discuss it here.  Let me get the ball rolling.

It seems to me that the biggest problem is that median wages have remained the same in Canada since about the early 80s.  So what do we do about that?  Cutting individual and corporate taxes during that period of time has benefited some but certainly hasn't helped increase median wages.  If anything it seems to me that the standard of living for most people has declined.  Further, No matter how low our taxes might be they wont change the fact that most of our manufacturing sector is under wage pressure from lower wage paying jurisdictions.

So, what would be a good policy or set of policies to address the situation?

[Neil]

Wouldn't soaring housing prices factor into this as well?