[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Neil]

Honesty being relative, of course.  I think that basing half of his last campaign around Ignatieff's attendence in the House of Commons was a low blow, and there's the political fiefdom that his family holds in Toronto, but he wasn't all that bad.  I don't see how he was more honest or had more integrity than Ignatieff, he just had much more charisma and was far, far, far better managed.

His 70% absent figure turned out to be a bit inaccurate (IIRC it was more like 59%), but I would say its more of an astute observation than a low-blow. He simply hit a theme that Joe Q. Public could understand - if I don't show up to work, do I expect a promotion? Most would not, so it was easy to make the connection. And well, Ignatieff left himself open to it by happening to have the worst attendance record of the leaders, particularly in relation to Layton and the Prime Minister.

But because Ignatieff had other, more important work to attend to (trying to rebuild the Liberal Party, travelling around the country to attempt to build support, etc.), his attendence record isn't especially important.  Moreover, in the past they've always kept attendence out of elections, and it was informally considered improper to try and campaign on this.  Layton knew this, but still used it to his advantage.  It's something of an ethical breach, and will certainly contribute to increasing the toxicity of politics for years to come.

Mind you, I find less fault with Jack for employing it than I do with you for defending it.  Layton was devoted to doing anything he could to advance his party and I can understand that.  I can't understand you defending his exploitation of the gross stupidity of the Canadian voters.

[Malthus]

I respected Layton as a political leader and he seemed a down-to-earth kinda guy, whose struggle with the disease that killed him was certainly inspirational. Though I think the NDP are crackers on most issues.

I thought Harper's reaction on Layton's death - to extend a state funeral (which wasn't required) and publicly honour his memory with a farewell speech - was appropriate and tasteful, and reflected well on him. He almost appeared human. 

[Neil]

I thought Harper's reaction on Layton's death - to extend a state funeral (which wasn't required)

I think it was appropriate for a Leader of the Opposition who died in office.

[Barrister]

I started out doubting the whole state funeral, but then realized he was (even if fairly briefly) the leader of Her Majesty's Opposition and resided in Stornoway, so it made sense.

[Neil]

I started out doubting the whole state funeral, but then realized he was (even if fairly briefly) the leader of Her Majesty's Opposition and resided in Stornoway, so it made sense.

Yeah.  I figure he's roughly as worthy as a Cabinet Minister who dies in office, so it makes sense.  If Elizabeth May died, not so much.

[crazy canuck]

Unsurprisingly the NDP have enjoyed a big bump in the polls.

The Harris/Decima survey conducted for The Canadian Press pegs NDP support at 33 per cent – tied with the ruling Conservatives and well ahead of the Liberals at 21 per cent.

I also see the Liberals have held a news event to discuss the economy in an effort to remind people they still exist.  It will be interesting to see if the NDP can keep some of this good will over time.  A lot of pressure on the next leader to solidify the party's position.

[Barrister]

Unsurprisingly the NDP have enjoyed a big bump in the polls.

The Harris/Decima survey conducted for The Canadian Press pegs NDP support at 33 per cent – tied with the ruling Conservatives and well ahead of the Liberals at 21 per cent.

I also see the Liberals have held a news event to discuss the economy in an effort to remind people they still exist.  It will be interesting to see if the NDP can keep some of this good will over time.  A lot of pressure on the next leader to solidify the party's position.

As you said, the bump in the polls is utterly unsurprising, and completely unlikely to be maintained.

[crazy canuck]

As you said, the bump in the polls is utterly unsurprising, and completely unlikely to be maintained.

I dont know about the last part.  If the NDP do a good job building on the Layton Legacy (for want of a better phrase) I think they may well keep a good portion of that support.  The Liberals are dead in the water and pretty easy pickings atm on both the left and right.  I think there are interesting times ahead for the NDP.

[Barrister]

As you said, the bump in the polls is utterly unsurprising, and completely unlikely to be maintained.

I dont know about the last part.  If the NDP do a good job building on the Layton Legacy (for want of a better phrase) I think they may well keep a good portion of that support.  The Liberals are dead in the water and pretty easy pickings atm on both the left and right.  I think there are interesting times ahead for the NDP.

It's not that the NDP couldn't rise in the polls in future.  But this is clearly a sympathy bump - something we've seen before in politics.  And it never, ever lasts.  It is sometimes meaningful if the death is right before the election itself, but ehre, with another election 4 years away, this bump will be short lived.

[crazy canuck]

Political memory is short to be sure.  But I think this is something a bit more visceral.  The NDP rode the Douglas name for years.  Now they have a new Tommy Douglas type to build on.  It is part of their brand if you will and I dont think that will fade as easily as you think.

[Barrister]

Political memory is short to be sure.  But I think this is something a bit more visceral.  The NDP rode the Douglas name for years.  Now they have a new Tommy Douglas type to build on.  It is part of their brand if you will and I dont think that will fade as easily as you think.

Tommy Douglas gained fame as the Father of Medicare (and even then it was more that he was recognized years later as such).

No offence, but Layton's heritage is as a Toronto City Councillor and an opposition politician in Ottawa.  A tragic death doesn't change that fact.

[crazy canuck]

No offence, but Layton's heritage is as a Toronto City Councillor and an opposition politician in Ottawa.  A tragic death doesn't change that fact.

That is what you are missing.  The thousands that lined up for him were not lining up for an ex city councillor or an opposition leader.  They were lining up for a person people genuinely admired and people have come to associate Layton with everything good about politicians.

[Barrister]

Are you arguing that Jack Layton is experiencing the Princess Diana effect, whereby a nice enough but generally unremarkable figure gets transformed by a tragic death into someone completely different?

[crazy canuck]

Are you arguing that Jack Layton is experiencing the Princess Diana effect, whereby a nice enough but generally unremarkable figure gets transformed by a tragic death into someone completely different?

No, but your bias is clearly showing.  I am arguing that Layton's manner and the way he conducted his political life was admirable and he has become much beloved for that fact.

[Josephus]

Unsurprisingly the NDP have enjoyed a big bump in the polls.

The Harris/Decima survey conducted for The Canadian Press pegs NDP support at 33 per cent – tied with the ruling Conservatives and well ahead of the Liberals at 21 per cent.

I also see the Liberals have held a news event to discuss the economy in an effort to remind people they still exist.  It will be interesting to see if the NDP can keep some of this good will over time.  A lot of pressure on the next leader to solidify the party's position.

Hmmm....maybe Harper can call an election. 

I agree that four years is a long time to ride that tide; but I agree with CC over Beeb that you never really know. Most people who lined up at his funeral probably had no clue he was a city councillor. His legacy is the man with the cane who captured people's hearts and then died. In fact, i do see a bit of Lady Di effect.
Can it last. No, not so much but it comes down to how well the NDP can play it up. Don't rule out Chow replacing him and she'll forever be Layton's Wife.