[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

People in Quebec may view immigration more favourably because Quebec has more control over immigration than any other province.

The rest of have to live with the mistakes made by the Liberals over the last few years.

No, that's not it. I think we need to examine why white anglophone Canadians are so inherently racists. It must be something about culture or language. You guys need to open yourself up to the world more. Nationalism and ethnostate thinking is a thing of the past. Join us in the 21st century, anglos.

OK so two questions.

Why do you think that control over the immigration system is not related to trust or approval of the immigration system at the provincial level?

Why do you think that white people in Canada are inherently racist?

[crazy canuck]

One of the many interesting storylines coming out of the BC election is what the greens will do this time around with the balance of power.  In 2017 when they were in essentially the same position, they made an agreement with the NDP which the NDP ignored.  The centrepiece of that agreement was changing the first past the post system.

Will the Greens, get their way this time and achieve electoral reform or will the NDP outmaneuver them again?

The NDP may have more motivation to change the electoral system now that the centre right vote has lost its home.  The long-term strategy may be to try to keep that centre right vote fragmented.

The greatest fear of the NDP right now has got to be the Conservative Party of B.C. moderating and appealing more voters.  The old BC Liberal party probably would have won a big majority in this election, if it had still existed, and that's the sort of thing the NDP is going to want to avoid.

[Grey Fox]

Zoupa is parroting the RoC discourse whenever Quebec has reservations on immigration.

[crazy canuck]

Thanks for the explanation. 

[Barrister]

Is something going to happen this week with Trudeau?

There's a paywalled article about how Mark Carney is going to enter politics:

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/mark-carney-says-he-plans-to-enter-elected-politics-as-liberals-begin-to-organize-leadership/article_0eaf81b4-8fbd-11ef-b46a-b7a3e36cae79.html

And another on how Christie Clark want's Trudeau's job.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/christy-clark-justin-trudeau-step-down-1.7357740

[Grey Fox]

He'll be reaffirmed has the LPC leader, imo.

[saskganesh]

There's been a recruit Mark Carney faction in play for a few years. Mark Carney has yet to get his public hands dirty.

Christy Clark piece is science fiction.

[saskganesh]

It's funny how we usually have election results in minutes. I don't know all the fine details, but if it takes BC a week to find out who the fuck their government is, I think a bunch of people should be fired. there needs to be a Royal Commission.

[crazy canuck]

There's been a recruit Mark Carney faction in play for a few years. Mark Carney has yet to get his public hands dirty.

Christy Clark piece is science fiction.

Yes, I am not sure why people are putting her name forward

It's funny how we usually have election results in minutes. I don't know all the fine details, but if it takes BC a week to find out who the fuck their government is, I think a bunch of people should be fired. there needs to be a Royal Commission.

I'm not sure what you mean.  We had the election results very quickly this year because of the new ballot machines that tabulated the vote as the ballots were submitted.  Elections B.C. just needed to download the votes after the polls closed.  All results were known within an hour of closing with the exception of the out of riding votes.

The reason why we won't know who will form government is because there were a number of races that were with 100 votes and so those are subject to automatic recounts, and perhaps even judicial recounts.

That is the system working as it should.

[Barrister]

There's been a recruit Mark Carney faction in play for a few years. Mark Carney has yet to get his public hands dirty.

Christy Clark piece is science fiction.

I just can't help but think that Carney is going to be Ignatief 2.0.  Clearly an incredibly bright guy - but with no experience as a retail politician.

The fact the names being floated are Carney and Clark - neither of who are in Parliament, never mind Cabinet, shows how Trudeau has hogged all the limelight and not allowed any of his ministers to get much of a profile.

[crazy canuck]

Yes, that - and many of the Ministers who had merit have left.  Triggering the bi-elections and causing the trouble he is now in.  Karma.

[crazy canuck]

'semi-witting or witting participants" in foreign interference activities.

CSIS is unwilling to divulge their sources publicly.

As well they shouldn't.

PP is unwilling to compromise one of his electoral base and lose financial support.

All he has to do is get the clearance, get the list of compromised or targeted MPs, Senators, candidates and clean up his party.  He will simply not sign their documents pertaining to their candidacy for the next election and they will go out quietly.  End of story.

So are you suggesting that part of Poilievre's base is either Chinese voters, or Indian(or Sikh) voters?  While the Conservatives have support in both groups, so do the Liberals and I don't see either as possibly being a "electoral base".

Otherwise - spell this out more literally for me please.

The Liberal Party relies on Sikh voters and money for their support.

The Conservative Party relies on Indian voters and money.  They do not want to be seen as being pro-Sikh or anti-Modi for fear of alienating part of their new base.

Just after India's diplomates were expelled, Poilièvre attended a Diawali event with India's high commissioner as if nothing happened.  He has also remained very silent on the matter, for a leader of the opposition.

Something does not add up here.

He needs to get his security clearance and clear up the air around his party.  This is smelling like Trump and Russia.  We need to know who's involved with who in our political parties, or at least, be certain they won't be at the next election.

I don't think that is accurate.  The support for the Conservative Party amongst Sikh's in the lower mainland of B.C. is high.  It is one of the reasons Conservative candidates have historically done well in Ridings where there is a significant Sikh population.

As another example, if the B.C. Conservatives win the hotly contested ridings in Surrey in the provincial election today, it will be because they get a lot of support in the Sikh community.

Viper, as a follow up.  The BC Conservatives did swing a number of seats in Surrey, and to do it they relied on the support of the South Asian (predominantly Sikh) community.

Here is an article in today's Globe speculating that if the Federal Conservatives can gain that kind of support in Toronto ridings that have similar demographics, the Liberals will be in serious trouble. Gifted link

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/519974dc5e28f762a87fb14c1570523f4fb873adfcfcb945043907ccc3c41650/XSJV3VRF4BCGBGMMQAOI22LKMU/

[Sheilbh]

Christy Clark piece is science fiction.

What's the mechanism for replacing Trudeau?

Would you need a stalking horse candidate? Could one help keep Carney's hands clean in an initial challenge/leadership tilt?

[Barrister]

Christy Clark piece is science fiction.

What's the mechanism for replacing Trudeau?

Would you need a stalking horse candidate? Could one help keep Carney's hands clean in an initial challenge/leadership tilt?

This is going off of memory from the old Chretien/Martin tilts, but cabinet itself has no ability to remove a leader.  It can only be done through a vote of delegates at a party convention.

Last Liberal Party convention looks like it was in 2023.  Not sure when the next one would be (no convention in 2024) but understandably a 2025 convention forcing Trudeau to step down would be very little time given a fall 2025 federal election.

I think the "play" here is similar to Biden - just convince him it's time to go, thus giving any successor enough time to be selected.  Obvious difference of course is Trudeau's age versus Biden.

[crazy canuck]

BB nailed it, there is no way to remove him absent a formal vote at a party convention. He has to be convinced to step away.