[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Jacob]

Harper has endorsed Poilievre: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/harper-poilievre-endorsement-1.6531995

[crazy canuck]

Harper has endorsed Poilievre: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/harper-poilievre-endorsement-1.6531995

Viper beat you to it

[viper37]

I am not sure, but that CPC number looks to be basically what the Conservative vote always is - and concentrated in Alberta.  As usual, the election will be decided in Ontario with Quebec being the wild card (can any federal party gain seats there).

I think the take away is that one will attract from the centre of Canadian politics and the other only really appeals to the far right.  But the bulk of voters are going to stand pat whoever the Conservative leader is.

BB is likely a good example of the stand pat group - he will probably vote Conservative no matter who is elected as the leader.  But the real question is how do the Conservatives gain a majority government, or even a minority by attracting sufficient support outside the Conservative base.  Neither leadership hopeful looks to be able to pull that off.

BB might cancel his vote if Poilievre is elected.
I'm considering not voting at all.

I can't see Québec turning Conservative with Poilièvre.
I can't see Québec electing more than 6-7 Conservatives with Charest, he's kinda burnt here.  The party will have traction, not him.
But Poilièvre his the kind of man that will burn everything in its path and people will turn away from the party.

[crazy canuck]

I am not sure, but that CPC number looks to be basically what the Conservative vote always is - and concentrated in Alberta.  As usual, the election will be decided in Ontario with Quebec being the wild card (can any federal party gain seats there).

I think the take away is that one will attract from the centre of Canadian politics and the other only really appeals to the far right.  But the bulk of voters are going to stand pat whoever the Conservative leader is.

BB is likely a good example of the stand pat group - he will probably vote Conservative no matter who is elected as the leader.  But the real question is how do the Conservatives gain a majority government, or even a minority by attracting sufficient support outside the Conservative base.  Neither leadership hopeful looks to be able to pull that off.

BB might cancel his vote if Poilievre is elected.
I'm considering not voting at all.

I can't see Québec turning Conservative with Poilièvre.
I can't see Québec electing more than 6-7 Conservatives with Charest, he's kinda burnt here.  The party will have traction, not him.
But Poilièvre his the kind of man that will burn everything in its path and people will turn away from the party.

Your assessment is likely correct.  The scary unknown is weather the Canadian conservative movement will reject the politics or PP or Take the next step and go full GOP.  There are enough connections across the border, including Canadians watching FOX, to make that a non zero risk.

[Jacob]

Apparently the Quebec side of the Conservative Party is going all in on anti-vaccine conspiracy theory candidates: https://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/quebec-s-conservative-party-surges-in-the-polls-as-some-of-its-candidates-spread-conspiracy-theories-1.6532486

Quebecois posters, how worried should we be? Is this an indication of how fringe the Quebec Conservatives are, that this is the only way they can get a semblance of traction? Or is this an indication that the Quebec Conservatives may become a real force by tapping in to previously significant amounts of unrepresented Q-Anon conspiracy nonsense?

[Oexmelin]

Note: this is the newly founded/rebranded  Conservative party of Quebec, that has, AFAIK, no ties to the CPC.

I think this is a reaction to the right-of-center dominance of the CAQ, that their opponent has to stoke the more extreme right-wing crazies.

The problem is that the right-wing crazies have long had an echo chamber in the trash radios of Quebec City, and I think, unfortunately, that the CAQ is inordinately worried by that sort of rhetoric - and it pushes them to tacitly adopt some of their talking points.

[Grey Fox]

It's an interesting development in the politics of Quebec for sure. Can that party be extreme right and gain seats while also nit pick which extreme policies (Anti-vaccine but non anti-gay, their leader is openly gay) they adhere too and also survive in the post-covid policies world. Right now, they are the angry francophone party, nothing more.

The next election, in 2026, will be the real test.

[Sheilbh]

In Europe with countries that have a strong tradition of laicite/state secularism a sort of homo-nationalism has definitely worked as a wedge for the far right.

[Jacob]

Note: this is the newly founded/rebranded  Conservative party of Quebec, that has, AFAIK, no ties to the CPC.

I think this is a reaction to the right-of-center dominance of the CAQ, that their opponent has to stoke the more extreme right-wing crazies.

The problem is that the right-wing crazies have long had an echo chamber in the trash radios of Quebec City, and I think, unfortunately, that the CAQ is inordinately worried by that sort of rhetoric - and it pushes them to tacitly adopt some of their talking points.

Ah I see, thank you. I somehow missed that (lack of) connection.

[Jacob]

In Europe with countries that have a strong tradition of laicite/state secularism a sort of homo-nationalism has definitely worked as a wedge for the far right.

I'm not sure emulating Ernst Röhm is a good move, but I suppose it's appealing to some folks...

[Sheilbh]

I'm not sure emulating Ernst Röhm is a good move, but I suppose it's appealing to some folks...

And yet.

I was thinking more in Europe of figures like Pim Fortuyn and a lot of rhetoric in some (not all) European countries of migration/Muslims being a threat to gay rights and incompatible with a Western society - so vote for the fascists. I think in a few countries it's biggest success has been as a wedge to break a cordon sanitaire against the far-right.

Different from an anti-vax party but a way homo-nationalism has worked here.

[PRC]

I really reject that.  Conservatism has never been about being mean.  It's about being cautious and pragmatic - being cautious about not making welfare too generous as you don't want to cause a disincentive to work for example.  But not about being mean.

The people who call themselves conservative today are clearly not adhering to the "cautious and pragmatic" approach that may have clicked with you as a young man turning you into the brand conservative you are today.  If that tagline is your lodestone then the movement has left you behind.

Today's conservatives assault the status quo and are themselves  seeking radical change.  The woke leftist crowd they rail against is a shield against their own anarchistic nature.

Todays conservative's are conspiratorial, radical and populist libertarians attacking our long serving institutions.  Health care, education and "government as the enemy" are at the forefront of the modern conservative movement.  Government is the source of all evil in this present libertarian conservative cultural push.

If you truly believe "cautious and pragmatic" is a conservative approach... you may be alone amongst your comrades.

[crazy canuck]

The mantra that government is the problem is not a recent development for conservatives.  It has been there since at least the early 80s and was well developed as the lodestone concept of the Canadian conservative movement into the 90s.

[Jacob]

Do you folks have any thoughts on the UCP leadership race in Alberta?

[PRC]

Do you folks have any thoughts on the UCP leadership race in Alberta?

Danielle Smith is a crazy person.  She can talk a good game and sounds confident.  If she wins the leadership race and the premiership she would be dangerous for Alberta and probably the country.  Her recent comments on cancer, boiling down to "cancer is preventable if you take care of yourself", and comments from her past radio show indicate she believes health and prosperity is a question of moral character. 

As for the rest...

The possibly sane (doubtful chance of winning):








Of Questionable sanity (doubtful chance of winning):






The Batshit crazy (the front runners):