[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Barrister]

Canada approves the J&J vaccine.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/canada-authorizes-one-shot-covid-19-vaccine-from-johnson-johnson-1.5335065

[crazy canuck]

I think time is running out for the Conservatives.  In BC there is talk of having everyone vaccinated by latest the end of June.  BC's practices have now been adopted by the Feds and will likely be adopted by the rest of the country, so even if one compares us to the US, that comparison is going to look pretty good.

The Conservatives have failed to establish what they stand for under their new leadership other than to say they are not Liberals.

You have to think, after a few more good news COVID announcements, the Liberals are going to pull the pin and take us to the polls.  The NDP in this province showed that conducting an election during COVID can actually work out well for the governing party.

[Jacob]

Going all in on "the Liberals fumbled vaccine management" won't be super effective if they turn it around, no. It's not turned around yet, though. I do hope BC will be fully vaccinated by June as you say, as we have a wedding to go to in July. Do you have a source for that projection? If that turns out to be true, then yeah I think the vaccine line of attack is going to be pretty ineffective.

And as for the Conservatives, they definitely have the "Trudeau sucks" message locked down, but I think you're right that they haven't established much more of a message beyond that and "they fucked up with the vaccine". Then again, that's sort of Canadian politics, isn't it? IIRC, during most of the Harper years the opposition message often seemed to coalesce around "Harper sucks".

[crazy canuck]

BC has not changed its formal Vaccination schedule, but that will changed when the impact of the decision to go to a 4 month gap is calculated in to revise the existing schedule.  News reports have been talking about the June date.  You should see something official shortly as the official program is updated.  The other huge impact is going to be if J+J's vaccine comes across the border as they ramp up their production in April.

I disagree about why the Liberals defeated Harper.  Remember the context, it looked like the NDP were going to win.  They were running on the plank that they were the fiscally responsible non Conservatives you can trust.  The Liberals went left with their policies rather than trying to argue that they were the fiscal non Cons that people should trust.  Huge policy and political mis-step by the NDP.  I do agree though that Harper won by saying he was not the corrupt Liberals.

[HVC]

The Conservatives have failed to establish what they stand for under their new leadership other than to say they are not Liberals.

That's enough for a lot of people.

[Barrister]

Going all in on "the Liberals fumbled vaccine management" won't be super effective if they turn it around, no. It's not turned around yet, though. I do hope BC will be fully vaccinated by June as you say, as we have a wedding to go to in July. Do you have a source for that projection? If that turns out to be true, then yeah I think the vaccine line of attack is going to be pretty ineffective.

And as for the Conservatives, they definitely have the "Trudeau sucks" message locked down, but I think you're right that they haven't established much more of a message beyond that and "they fucked up with the vaccine". Then again, that's sort of Canadian politics, isn't it? IIRC, during most of the Harper years the opposition message often seemed to coalesce around "Harper sucks".

Elections are almost invariably referendums on the government in power.  As an opposition party you have to put forward your own platform because to not do so would be strange and make you look unprepared, but if Canadians are more-or-less comfortable with the existing government there's nothing an opposition party can do to win.

[crazy canuck]

The Conservatives have failed to establish what they stand for under their new leadership other than to say they are not Liberals.

That's enough for a lot of people.

In your province sure.  But a big gamble for the Cons if that is all they have in the rest of the country.  It worked for Harper but that was in the wake of a huge Liberal corruption scandal.  The Conservatives have been trying to create those conditions again, but there is nothing that comes close to the Sponsorship Scandal.  Everybody seemed to agree the Liberals needed a lengthy time out after that and Harper did a good job of presenting a moderate option that people could trust.  By contrast, can anyone really say what the current Con leader stands for?  He is going to have to figure out a way to communicate that effectively before the Liberals tell the country why we should fear him during the election.

[crazy canuck]

Going all in on "the Liberals fumbled vaccine management" won't be super effective if they turn it around, no. It's not turned around yet, though. I do hope BC will be fully vaccinated by June as you say, as we have a wedding to go to in July. Do you have a source for that projection? If that turns out to be true, then yeah I think the vaccine line of attack is going to be pretty ineffective.

And as for the Conservatives, they definitely have the "Trudeau sucks" message locked down, but I think you're right that they haven't established much more of a message beyond that and "they fucked up with the vaccine". Then again, that's sort of Canadian politics, isn't it? IIRC, during most of the Harper years the opposition message often seemed to coalesce around "Harper sucks".

Elections are almost invariably referendums on the government in power.  As an opposition party you have to put forward your own platform because to not do so would be strange and make you look unprepared, but if Canadians are more-or-less comfortable with the existing government there's nothing an opposition party can do to win.

As a concept devoid of any context, sure.

But in the Canadian context where the the concern with the Conservatives is always whether they will be unduly influenced by their far right elements, not so much.  You have a leader who played to social conservatives to win the leadership.  Do you suppose there might be an advantage to make Canadians feel more comfortable that he will not implement that agenda if he takes power?

[HVC]

i'm using viper and BB as a sample for Quebec, Manitoba, and Alberta. and according to my calculations *reads scribbles on palm* conservatives will win by a huge landslide.




Now its very fair to say that i don't know much about the political process outside of Ontario, but it seems canada is becoming more polarized just like everywhere else. how many canadians change the party they vote for?

in the past i've voted conservative and liberal. Hell i even voted for harper. Then he went all weird and and started edging racist to get the far right vote. and that's not something i support so i wouldn't vote for him. in the past people seemed more likely t move around, from NDP to liberal at least, if not to conservative. it seeming to become less common.

[Valmy]

Hell I just hope my family is vaccinated by June.

[Barrister]

i'm using viper and BB as a sample for Quebec, Manitoba, and Alberta. and according to my calculations *reads scribbles on palm* conservatives will win by a huge landslide.




Now its very fair to say that i don't know much about the political process outside of Ontario, but it seems canada is becoming more polarized just like everywhere else. how many canadians change the party they vote for?

in the past i've voted conservative and liberal. Hell i even voted for harper. Then he went all weird and and started edging racist to get the far right vote. and that's not something i support so i wouldn't vote for him. in the past people seemed more likely t move around, from NDP to liberal at least, if not to conservative. it seeming to become less common.

Quite honestly a lot of Canadian politics comes down to how well third parties are doing.

The strongest two leaders of the NDP in my lifetime have been Ed Broadbent and Jack Layton.  The NDP did very well in the polls, won a lot of seats - and both corresponded with Brian Mulroney and Stephen Harper being Prime Minister.

Similarly Chretien had a long run as Prime Minister - because Reform had split the vote.

[crazy canuck]

i'm using viper and BB as a sample for Quebec, Manitoba, and Alberta. and according to my calculations *reads scribbles on palm* conservatives will win by a huge landslide.




Now its very fair to say that i don't know much about the political process outside of Ontario, but it seems canada is becoming more polarized just like everywhere else. how many canadians change the party they vote for?

in the past i've voted conservative and liberal. Hell i even voted for harper. Then he went all weird and and started edging racist to get the far right vote. and that's not something i support so i wouldn't vote for him. in the past people seemed more likely t move around, from NDP to liberal at least, if not to conservative. it seeming to become less common.

I think that is correct.  There was a book written in the 80s about Canadian Federal Politics called One Eyed Kings - the main thesis of which was that while there were differences amongst the main parties in Canada, they were really only superficial.  The three main parties agreed on most policy positions.  The differences were really in the details.

I think what changed in the Canadian context was the Reform movement.  That became a safe place for the far right to congregate and win some seats in Parliament, and the Conservatives have been vexed with that wing ever since.  They were in effect our Tea Party moment, except they were a lot more successful and eventually took over the Conservative party. 

[Barrister]

New vaccine distribution plans in Alberta.  Starting March 15 Albertans ages 65-74 can book their first shot.  So that means my mom.

Starting March 10 Albertans ages 50-64 can get a shot of the Astra-Zeneca vaccine.

Curious - they're clearly using the AZ vaccine as a second-class vaccine, because they've never specified which vaccine you would receive before.

Edit: My understanding is Alberta is able to go a little younger in our vaccine distribution because vaccines are being distributed proportionally across Canada, and Alberta has a noticeably younger population.

[Jacob]

Current polling puts the Liberals at 45% for a majority and 43% for winning the most seats but not a majority, while the Conservatives sit at 11% for winning the most seats (but not a majority).

Obviously polls are polls, and things change, but it does look like CC's point about O'Toole needing to define himself a bit more in the Canadian consciousness is correct.

[viper37]

how many canadians change the party they vote for?

Enough to provide a change a of government per decade.  I think we should just extend the term limit to 10 years, we might just save money

I can't see the Prairies massively swinging toward the Libs, no more than I can see West-Montreal massively shifting massively toward the Cons.  In fact, GMA and GTA will remain Liberal, not enough people change their minds there.  Will we see movement in the regions, and will it be enough?  I don't know.  there's always a part of the population that moves from one party to another, often influenced by surveys, or new promises, or the nasty fear/smear campaign of the Liberals.  Anything is possible.

I do remember seeing the Conservatives going from a majority of MPs to having 2 elected MPs, and shortly later only one left standing.  But that was a very special case.