[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[viper37]

I am convinced that the bundle of attributes we associate with "right" and "left" have little or no internal consistency.

True.

Remember the last big threat to humanity?  The ozone layer in our atmosphere, and acid rains.  Who tackled the issue?  Mulroney (Conservative party) and GHW Bush (Republican party).
Meaningful solutions were found and applied.  There was *a lot* of outcry from the industry, most notably the paper mill industry, they fought tooth and nails these new rules... and in the end, when they complied, they realized they were a lot more productive than before.

Same with cars.  Lots of people complain when AC was no longer using freon gaz.  "We can't refill our own AC now!".  Duh.  We barely need to "refill" and AC unit nowadays.  And they are much more efficient at cooling than before.

I think a lot of the conservatives today are scared by change, any kind of change to their life habits.  Wear white socks instead of brown ones?  Heresy!  Plus, religion got mixed into politics, something I didn't see in the early 90s.  It polarizes the issues: It's not written in the Bible, therefore it is not real.

[crazy canuck]

I believe these estimates to be on the generous side of things. 

You will understand when I say I find the scientists estimates to be more persuasive.

[viper37]

I believe these estimates to be on the generous side of things. 

You will understand when I say I find the scientists estimates to be more persuasive.

What I mean to say is, they are in need of revision regarding newlyfound data, or so I've read.  We'll see in a year or two.

[Josephus]

So recent polling show the Liberals gaining traction again.
I still stick with my assessment though that polls mean fuck all until about half an hour before the election.

[crazy canuck]

I still stick with my assessment though that polls mean fuck all until about half an hour before the election.

Agreed

[viper37]

So recent polling show the Liberals gaining traction again.
I still stick with my assessment though that polls mean fuck all until about half an hour before the election.

Individual polls mean nothing.  Tendancies through numerous polls mean a party trailing behind has to adjust its "message" to the population. 

Blunders are always possible during a campaing.  The Liberal Party of Quebec wasn't in a terrible position shortly before the last election.  Their leader, Couillard, was a very intelligent man (neuro-surgeon), but he lacked some form of empathy for the concerns of the populace.  It's similar to, I think, a debate with Reagan where he knew the price of bread and his opponent didn't. 

He was asked if a family of four could live with 75$ groceries a week.  He said yes, it was possible, but certainly not ideal.  See, that was a blunder.  Because it was true, it was possible, just not ideal.  But this coming from a guy who had an offshore bank account, who made in excess of 300k$ a year...  Ah, that didn't go well.  He could have phrased it better.  He could have said "I guess some people are living with as little as that, but my government will do everything in its power so that Quebecers won't have to".  But he was blunt and honest.  And that was a blunder.

So, yeah, polls reflect a tendancy, not an accurate prediction of the future.  Always in motion is the future.

[Grey Fox]

"Some form of empathy"

You are very nice. Couillard is a asshole doctor, he has no empathy towards any other humans.

[Josephus]

In August 2015, when the campaign for the election started, the Libs were in third place. They won a majority.

From The Star  https://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/10/20/how-did-the-pollsters-do-in-the-2015-federal-election.html

When formal campaigning began on Aug. 4, The Signal predicted a very different outcome for the NDP and Liberals. The smart poll indicates the two parties almost switched places over the course of the 78-day campaign. Data indicates the NDP were on course for 35.1 per cent, Conservatives 31.1 per cent, Liberals 24.2 per cent, Bloc 4.6 per cent and Greens 3.7 per cent on that day.

Anything can, and will happen.

[Barrister]

Anything can, and will happen.

You have to be careful though - 2015 was a rather unusual election though.  In 2011 the Conservatives led for the entire writ period (plus of course during the campaign the NDP and the Liberals effectively switched positions - and they switched back in 2015).

I think it more correct to say "Anything can happen, but it usually doesn't".

[crazy canuck]

Anything can, and will happen.

You have to be careful though - 2015 was a rather unusual election though.  In 2011 the Conservatives led for the entire writ period (plus of course during the campaign the NDP and the Liberals effectively switched positions - and they switched back in 2015).

I think it more correct to say "Anything can happen, but it usually doesn't".

I think politics in this and other countries has become much more volatile compared to a decade ago.  Add to that the uncertainty of modern day polling.

It would be very surprising if the election results bore any relationship to the polling data we have today.

edit: also think about the dramatic effect social media now has on the formation of public opinion. As a result I think what we saw in 2015 is going to become the norm.  All a party needs is something to go viral - like the devastating pictures of the young kurdish boy washed up the beach for their chances of election to change dramatically.

[Barrister]

I think politics in this and other countries has become much more volatile compared to a decade ago.  Add to that the uncertainty of modern day polling.

It would be very surprising if the election results bore any relationship to the polling data we have today.

I disagree.  Now I'm not saying this is in the bag for the Conservatives - far from it.  There will be some degree of movement.  But only because the Conservatives and Liberals are so close that this election could go either way.  So in that way the final results will certainly bore some relationship to today's polling data.

You're not going to get some kind of wild volatility where, say, you suddenly see the Greens picking up 20% of the vote, or the Conservatives or Liberals falling into 3rd place.  Like almost every election in Canadian history, is a tight race between Team Red and Team Blue.

[crazy canuck]

I think politics in this and other countries has become much more volatile compared to a decade ago.  Add to that the uncertainty of modern day polling.

It would be very surprising if the election results bore any relationship to the polling data we have today.

I disagree.  Now I'm not saying this is in the bag for the Conservatives - far from it.  There will be some degree of movement.  But only because the Conservatives and Liberals are so close that this election could go either way.  So in that way the final results will certainly bore some relationship to today's polling data.

You're not going to get some kind of wild volatility where, say, you suddenly see the Greens picking up 20% of the vote, or the Conservatives or Liberals falling into 3rd place.  Like almost every election in Canadian history, is a tight race between Team Red and Team Blue.

See my edit.  You are thinking about politics as they were before everyone got their news through social media. 

[Barrister]

See my edit.  You are thinking about politics as they were before everyone got their news through social media.

I think social media makes large shifts even less likely, not more.  Social media is self-selecting and self-referential.  I can tell you that the odds of anything popping up on my Facebook feed that is supportive of the Liberals or NDP is astonishingly small.  I say that not as a boast - it's just how FB's algorithm works considering who my FB friends are and the posts I have interacted with in the past.  Personally I will go out and read websites with views different from my own - but that stuff never shows up on my FB feed.

[viper37]

I believe these estimates to be on the generous side of things. 

You will understand when I say I find the scientists estimates to be more persuasive.

What did I tell you?
https://www.care2.com/causes/arctic-permafrost-is-melting-70-years-sooner-than-predicted.html

[viper37]

"Some form of empathy"

You are very nice. Couillard is a asshole doctor, he has no empathy towards any other humans.

allright, I was being generous and polite

I guess doctors found ways to insulate themselves from the plight of their patients, so as not to burn out by seeing patients with advanced cancers coming into their office and dying a few months later.  That does not translate well for a Prime Minister.