[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[viper37]

http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/TV_Shows/The_National/1233408557/ID=1891645946

Apparently, the NDP will be first in Quebec tomorrow, according to CROP...
Got results:
Crop poll in Que: NDP @ 36, BQ 31, Con 17. Libs 13                   
@308dotcom: "Very (very) rough estimate with those CROP numbers: 31 NDP, 30 BQ, 10 CPC, 4 LPC seats. Hard to believe"                   
Can't wait for tomorrow.

EDIT: It.'s here
Link

36% NDP, 31% Bloc, 17% Cons.

In Montreal: 40% NDP, 28% Bloc, 17% Libs, 12% Cons.

[Barrister]

I just don't buy it.

The NDP has no network on the ground in Quebec.  No GOTV effort, no campaign workers, no nothing.

I can't see them suddenly sweeping half the province.

[viper37]

I just don't buy it.

The NDP has no network on the ground in Quebec.  No GOTV effort, no campaign workers, no nothing.

I can't see them suddenly sweeping half the province.

A very low % concentrated in Montreal as seems the case means lots of MPs.  Look at how many Libs there are in Quebec, and most of them are in Montreal.

I doubt the actual number of seats, but I think I trust the %numbers.

It's the Jack effect, for sure.  Most people have no idea what kind of ideas of the NDP spreads, except they are leftwing.

[Ancient Demon]

NDP bigger than the BQ, in Quebec? That's insane.

[Jacob]

I was just going to post on this. Here's the CBC discussion about it: http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/TV_Shows/The_National/1233408557/ID=1891645946

Looks like things might actually get a little interesting after all. Layton had a pretty decent interview with Mansbridge here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sToYptPkoz0

If Layton and the NDP does get a big bump in Quebec and gets a bunch of seats (and this is not a mid election bump that dissipates on election day), how does that change things?

[Grey Fox]

Wow. That's impressive.

I guess Layton's ads are doing magic.

[Josephus]

According to CC this was supposed to be the end of Jack and the NDP.

There was an article in the Star last week about this, though, and it said that while the points look good, it probably won't translate into seats or even into votes. Come election day, some of these people who say they'll vote NDP will end up voting strategically Liberal. Not sure if that opinion works in Quebec as well, though.

[Grey Fox]

30% creates a wave tho.

[Neil]

If Layton and the NDP does get a big bump in Quebec and gets a bunch of seats (and this is not a mid election bump that dissipates on election day), how does that change things?

If Layton and the NDP get a big bump nationally, it means a Conservative majority government.

[Jacob]

If Layton and the NDP get a big bump nationally, it means a Conservative majority government.

Wouldn't that be funny 

[viper37]

If Layton and the NDP does get a big bump in Quebec and gets a bunch of seats (and this is not a mid election bump that dissipates on election day), how does that change things?

Left-right issues in the Parliament instead of always bringing this to Quebec vs ROC.

[viper37]

According to CC this was supposed to be the end of Jack and the NDP.

There was an article in the Star last week about this, though, and it said that while the points look good, it probably won't translate into seats or even into votes. Come election day, some of these people who say they'll vote NDP will end up voting strategically Liberal. Not sure if that opinion works in Quebec as well, though.

it can work both ways

People who wanted to protest instead of not voting now see they have a chance to put the NDP in a strong position.  They can either be scared at the tought and change their mind or happy to vote for power and more electors will go that way.

It's the first time in my life I see any kind of poll where the Bloc isn't first in Quebec, so I really don't know what to make of it.

Chrétien once had more votes than the Bloc, but the Bloc still finished ahead in the number of MPs.

[crazy canuck]

According to CC this was supposed to be the end of Jack and the NDP.

Are you seriously trying to suggest you saw this coming?  The NDP were dropping fast.  Not sure what they have done in Quebec to turn their numbers around.  Not sure it will help them win seats in the rest of the Country.  But it might.

If this splits votes away from the Liberals in the rest of the Country because Layton is now talking about trying to form an NDP government then the chances of the Conservatives winning in ridings where they are in tight races with the Liberals just went up.

I dont agree it means a majority for the Conservatives.  There are a lot of ridings where the Conservatives and the NDP are the main rivals and the Liberals are about as popular as the Greens.  If the NDP can gain Lib supporters in those ridings the Cons could be in some trouble.

Hopefully the threat that the NDP might get anywhere near power will get out the Conservative vote and will encourage right leaning Liberals to vote Conservative since it now looks like the Libs have no shot and a vote for the Libs may be a vote for the NDP.

Long term, if current polls hold we are in for an interesting election night,  Iggy should be drafting his resignation speech and if the Conservatives dont win a Majority there will be some very interesting (read disturbing) discussions between the Libs and NDP over powersharing.

[Grey Fox]

Why do you hate Canada CC?

[crazy canuck]

Why do you hate Canada CC?