[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

On the carbon tax, isn't that just the sane move for a provincial politician in Alberta?   If the province does not enact similar legislation then the Federal legislation applies - so why take the political risk?

[Barrister]

So latest polling results:

https://338canada.com/federal.htm

Conservatives are at 41%.  That's majority government territory baby.  Conservative growth has all come from the Liberals as well.  In terms of seats they project Conservatives 203, Liberals 70, BQ 36, NDP 27, Greens 2.

It would be the biggest conservative majority since Mulroney.

So interesting to see where we go from here.  Election doesn't need to be called until 2025 so Trudeau does have some time.

The two inflection points are:

1. Does Singh pull his support from Trudeau?  The confidence-and-supply agreement hasn't really worked for the NDP that well as theyr'e still stuck at that 19-20% threshold.  But a lot of NDPers may not like puling support only for a Conservative majority.

2. Does Trudeau pull the plug?  That would be the traditional wisdom.  He's been in office almost 10 years, he's facing defeat.  But does he think he has it in him to pull off another upset?  Remember 2015 looked like it would be the NDP's year, and the Liberals entered the election at third place in Parliament.

[Grey Fox]

12 conservatives in Quebec?

Yeah, no. The model still needs refining.

[Jacob]

If we have an early election resulting in a Conservative majority, it will absolutely hold that against whomever of the NDP or Libs who've been the biggest idiots about it.

[Barrister]

12 conservatives in Quebec?

Yeah, no. The model still needs refining.

They're mostly all ridings the Conservatives already hold

[Barrister]

If we have an early election resulting in a Conservative majority, it will absolutely hold that against whomever of the NDP or Libs who've been the biggest idiots about it.

Should that read "I will absolutely hold against"?

And what does being the "biggest idiot" look like to you?

[Jacob]

Should that read "I will absolutely hold against"?

Yes 

And what does being the "biggest idiot" look like to you?

It's hard to predict the future, and in any case it'll be a decision made in the moment... but generally, whoever comes across as thinking it's a "smart strategic decision"; or whoever is being the most inflexible and "fuck you" to the other part, causing government to collapse.

Of course, if either of them do that and somehow we end up without a Conservative government, I won't hold it against them... but right now that doesn't seem to be the most likely scenario.

[Sheilbh]

2. Does Trudeau pull the plug?  That would be the traditional wisdom.  He's been in office almost 10 years, he's facing defeat.  But does he think he has it in him to pull off another upset?  Remember 2015 looked like it would be the NDP's year, and the Liberals entered the election at third place in Parliament.

So to an extent this is the dilemma Sunak has (and the polling is far worse: Labour on about 45%, Tories on 25%). The general rule here is that they'll hold on for as long as they can until they absolutely have to call an election (like Major, like Brown etc).

I think in part because all politicians are fundamentally optimistic - they think they can do things, so think with time they can turn things round. But also a more fatalist Micawberism that something will turn up.

At this point in the electoral cycle the polls should be narrowing as we get closer to an election and the don't knows and soft swing/just dissatisfied vote start returning home. So far no sign of that happening 

[crazy canuck]

The Federal Court just came down hard on the Federal government and cited a letter the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Canada sent to the PMO expressing his deep concern regarding the on going failure of the Feds to fill superior court vacancies in all of the provinces.

The Chief Justice described the situation as critical and described the ongoing failure to fill vacancies as "appalling" and "untenable".

In the case before the Federal Court, the government took the position that they could delay as much as they wanted and that they could wait until suitable candidates for appointment came to the attention of cabinet.

That was flatly rejected by the Federal Court and ordered that all vacancies be filled within a reasonable time.

The Conservatives will be able to make a lot of hay out of this.


https://decisions.fct-cf.gc.ca/fc-cf/decisions/en/item/524977/index.do#_Toc158641771

[Barrister]

2. Does Trudeau pull the plug?  That would be the traditional wisdom.  He's been in office almost 10 years, he's facing defeat.  But does he think he has it in him to pull off another upset?  Remember 2015 looked like it would be the NDP's year, and the Liberals entered the election at third place in Parliament.

So to an extent this is the dilemma Sunak has (and the polling is far worse: Labour on about 45%, Tories on 25%). The general rule here is that they'll hold on for as long as they can until they absolutely have to call an election (like Major, like Brown etc).

I think in part because all politicians are fundamentally optimistic - they think they can do things, so think with time they can turn things round. But also a more fatalist Micawberism that something will turn up.

At this point in the electoral cycle the polls should be narrowing as we get closer to an election and the don't knows and soft swing/just dissatisfied vote start returning home. So far no sign of that happening 

Sunak's in a different position though because he's still new on the scene, and has never led the party through a general election.  So why would he step down without giving it at least one go?

Plus, I feel like politicians have to have a kind of over-inflated sense of their own worth.  I mean in order to say "I should be the leader of the entire country" you can't be lacking in self-confidence.


On a totally different note though - this might be a little too inside baseball, but I did here one suggestion why Trudeau might call a much earlier election than we'd think.  After April 2024 new electoral maps go into place.  Principally, they give 3 extra seats to Alberta, 1 each to BC and Ontario, and one less to Quebec.  It's thought that might be a more favourable map for the Conservatives (plus I think the boundaries within the provinces are thought to be more helpful).

So the theory is Trudeau calls an election - but he makes the writ period super long.  Like until September or something.  So now he doesn't have to answer questions in QP - he can go jetting off across the country

[Barrister]

The Federal Court just came down hard on the Federal government and cited a letter the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Canada sent to the PMO expressing his deep concern regarding the on going failure of the Feds to fill superior court vacancies in all of the provinces.

The Chief Justice described the situation as critical and described the ongoing failure to fill vacancies as "appalling" and "untenable".

In the case before the Federal Court, the government took the position that they could delay as much as they wanted and that they could wait until suitable candidates for appointment came to the attention of cabinet.

That was flatly rejected by the Federal Court and ordered that all vacancies be filled within a reasonable time.

The Conservatives will be able to make a lot of hay out of this.


https://decisions.fct-cf.gc.ca/fc-cf/decisions/en/item/524977/index.do#_Toc158641771

CC, God Bless you man - but that will not move the needle in the slightest.

[Sheilbh]

Sunak's in a different position though because he's still new on the scene, and has never led the party through a general election.  So why would he step down without giving it at least one go?

Fair - but it's at the fag end of 14 years of Tory rule. And as true of Brown, or Major, or Callaghan etc that you hold on for as long as you can in hope/expectation. Although as you noted Canadian leaders seem to leave on a high before they're voted/forced out - while in Britain, all political careers end in failure

Plus, I feel like politicians have to have a kind of over-inflated sense of their own worth.  I mean in order to say "I should be the leader of the entire country" you can't be lacking in self-confidence.

Yes

[Barrister]

Sunak's in a different position though because he's still new on the scene, and has never led the party through a general election.  So why would he step down without giving it at least one go?

Fair - but it's at the fag end of 14 years of Tory rule. And as true of Brown, or Major, or Callaghan etc that you hold on for as long as you can in hope/expectation. Although as you noted Canadian leaders seem to leave on a high before they're voted/forced out - while in Britain, all political careers end in failure

I guess - you don't really have any equivalents to a Kim Campbell or a John Turner, a caretaker PM who went down to massive defeat after the disgraced former PM resigned.

I mean - it did kind of look like that was going to be John Major's fate - but then he wound up winning.

[Sheilbh]

I guess - you don't really have any equivalents to a Kim Campbell or a John Turner, a caretaker PM who went down to massive defeat after the disgraced former PM resigned.

I mean - it did kind of look like that was going to be John Major's fate - but then he wound up winning.

Yeah Major turned it round very impressively (and, ultimately, I just don't think people bought Kinnock as a potential PM). Gordon Brown, I suppose, but he was not a caretaker in any sense of the word

I suppose the last real caretaker was Alec Douglas-Home, who was almost kidnapped by some students who'd broken into the house he was staying in Aberdeenshire during the 1964 election campaign - until he explained to them over a beer, that it was possibly the only thing that could inspire a Tory victory from sympathy votes. He later only revealed the story in his memoirs not wanting to ruin the lives of the students for a misconceived caper, or affect the career of his police protection officer. He also, famously, was told by someone on the train that she always thought it was a shame he never advanced any further as she thought he would have made a very good Prime Minister to which he replied, "I was, actually"

[Grey Fox]

12 conservatives in Quebec?

Yeah, no. The model still needs refining.

They're mostly all ridings the Conservatives already hold

Yes. What's PPs position on our milk supply system?