Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Minsky Moment]

This is going to end up as a Russian victory, won't it?

I mean it depends on what you mean by "victory" - I don't think Russian troops are marching through Kiyev, but I don't think Ukraine is going back to pre-2014 borders (which of course is my preferred outcome).

Russia lost the war two years ago, nothing is likely to change that unless a Trump-led United States shifts from malign neglect to outright support for Putin. Otherwise, the best Russian case is that they may occupy more pieces of a devastated eastern Ukraine, which will further drain already taxed resources. But their strategic position will remain considerably worse then pre-2022.

Of course it is possible for both sides to lose a war and that is looking increasingly likely as an outcome. Ukraine will have cemented its nationhood but at terrible cost.