Yemen Sliding Towards Revolution & Civil War; Generals Starting To Defect

[jimmy olsen]

Given that Saleh has put down two rebellions in the past, he's definitely a survivor, but given the way the winds are blowing in the middle east these days the continued survival of his regime is questionable. If it goes down, is their any hope for the country or will it fall into anarchy like Somalia as so many predict?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42189503/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/

Yemeni army commanders defect to protesters

Longtime confidant of Saleh warns that bloody crackdown is 'pushing the country toward civil war'

msnbc.com staff and news service reports
updated 1 hour 41 minutes ago 2011-03-21T12:00:40

SANAA, Yemen — Three Yemeni army commanders, including a top general, defected Monday to the opposition calling for an end to President Ali Abdullah Saleh's rule, as army tanks and armored vehicles deployed in support of thousands protesting in the capital.

With the defection, it appeared Saleh's support was eroding from every power base in the nation — his own tribe called on him to step down, he fired his entire Cabinet ahead of what one government official said was a planned mass resignation, and his ambassador to the U.N. and human rights minister quit.
Story: Yemeni president's tribe demands he step down

All three officers who defected Monday belong to Saleh's Hashid tribe. A Hashid leader said the tribe, eager to keep the president's job for one of its own, was rallying behind one of the men, Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, as a possible replacement for Saleh.

The leader spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

Al-Ahmar, the most senior of the three officers, is a longtime confidant of Saleh and commander of the army's powerful 1st Armored Division. Units of the division deployed Monday in a major square in Sanaa where protesters have been camping out to call for Saleh to step down.

"We announce our peaceful support for the peaceful revolution of the youth and their demands and we carry out our duty ... in ensuring security and stability in the capital," al-Ahmar said on Al-Jazeera television.

"Repressing peaceful demonstrators in public areas around the country has led to a cycle of crises which is getting more complicated each day and pushing the country toward civil war."

Friday's killings of 52 anti-government protesters by rooftop snipers in Sanaa prompted Saleh to declare a state of emergency for 30 days that restricts freedom of movement and the right to gather and gives police more powers to make arrests.

Saleh's crackdown suggests he is becoming more fearful that the unprecedented street protests could unravel his three-decade grip on power in this volatile and impoverished nation.

He also tried unsuccessfully to calm the protest by pulling back riot police.

The two other officers are Mohammed Ali Mohsen and Hameed al-Qusaibi, who both have the rank of brigadier. Yemen's ambassadors to Jordan, Syria and parliament's deputy speaker also announced Monday they were supporting the opposition, further undermining Saleh's weakening authority.

Tanks and armored personnel carriers belonging to the Republican Guards, an elite force led by Saleh's son and one-time heir apparent, Ahmed, were deployed outside the presidential palace on Sanaa's southern outskirts, according to witnesses. The deployment appeared designed to counter the presence on the streets elsewhere in the city of elements of the 1st Armored Division.

News of the defections came one day after crowds flooded cities and towns across Yemen to mourn dozens of protesters killed Friday.

Saleh and his weak government have faced down many serious challenges, often forging fragile alliances with restive tribes to extend power beyond the capital, Sanaa. Most recently, he has battled a seven-year armed rebellion in the north, a secessionist movement in the south, and an al-Qaida offshoot that is of great concern to the U.S.

Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, which formed in January 2009, has moved beyond regional aims and attacked the West, including sending a suicide bomber who came tried to down a U.S.-bound airliner with a bomb sewn into his underwear. The device failed to detonate properly.

Yemen is also home to U.S.-born radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, who is believed to have offered inspiration to those attacking the U.S., including Army Maj. Nidal Hasan, who is accused of killing 13 people and wounding dozens in a 2009 shootout at Fort Hood, Texas.

Al-Ahmar has been close to Saleh for most of the 32 years the Yemeni president has been in power. He is a veteran of the 1994 civil war that saw Saleh's army suppress an attempt by southern Yemen to secede. Al-Ahmar also fought in recent years against Shiite rebels in the north of the country.

Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

[Razgovory]

Isn't Yemen already in the midst of a civil war?

[DGuller]

Or anarchy, for that matter?

[KRonn]

I predict that Yemen is a perfect Somalia candidate. 

[Caliga]

Conventiently located on the other side of the Bab el Mandeb, too!

[Crazy_Ivan80]

if it falls Yemen will probably split up again along the coldwar lines. but who knows.

[Martim Silva]

France has decided to take a stand in the Yemeni situation. First Western country to call for Salehs' resignation:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/21/us-yemen-france-idUSTRE72K3TL20110321

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said Monday the resignation of the Yemeni president was now unavoidable, as unrest there escalated and a wave of top military officers and envoys defected or resigned.


At this rate, expect the Frogs to go for Bahrain before the month is up.

[Neil]

Bahrain is under the protection of the Saudis, and there's no way the French are going to get into a shooting war with the US.

[Razgovory]

What bug crawled up France's ass?  Why are they so interventionist lately?

[Jacob]

Maybe Sarkozy thinks that a few wars for liberty will enhance his domestic profile?

[Slargos]

Jews always want to stir up shit. It's in their blood. If everyone's at eachother's throats, they needs them their money lenders to provide a steady stream of weapons. 

[Admiral Yi]

What bug crawled up France's ass?  Why are they so interventionist lately?

The FT keeps saying he caught all kinds of grief domestically for playing it cool during Tunisia and Egypt.

[Grey Fox]

What bug crawled up France's ass?  Why are they so interventionist lately?

They are trying to make us forget they picked the wrong side in Lebanon.