Hungarian Politics

[KRonn]

How much opposition does Orban have from other political parties/leaders? I would think there are a lot of people who have had enough with Russia during Soviet days and don't want to get to entrenched again. If I remember right, Hungary was one of the earlier nations to slowly and peacefully move away from Soviet dominance. I'm just surprised that politics there has the nation cozying up so much with Russia under Putin. What's the reason? Is it the politics that agree with Putin? Is it mainly Orban and his crowd or is it a more widespread move? I can understand the economics side if Hungary is so heavily dependent on Russian energy, but Orban would seem to be going well beyond that.

[Tamas]

How much opposition does Orban have from other political parties/leaders? I would think there are a lot of people who have had enough with Russia during Soviet days and don't want to get to entrenched again. If I remember right, Hungary was one of the earlier nations to slowly and peacefully move away from Soviet dominance. I'm just surprised that politics there has the nation cozying up so much with Russia under Putin. What's the reason? Is it the politics that agree with Putin? Is it mainly Orban and his crowd or is it a more widespread move? I can understand the economics side if Hungary is so heavily dependent on Russian energy, but Orban would seem to be going well beyond that.

There still is anywhere between one and two million voters who will believe whatever Orban tells them, on a "we have always been at war with Eurasia" 1984 level.

Other than that, their media portrays Putin how he potraits himself: the last bastion of traditional values. Coupled with a general negativity toward anyone who does things better than us (US and most of EU), it works to some level.

As for the opposition, the only properly organised rival is Jobbik and they are financed by Russia, so there you go.

The rest of the oppisition (varying degrees of leftists) range from incompetent to complacent. I think they have been bought off: they are just way too silent when one government debacle follows the next.

[Martinus]

How much opposition does Orban have from other political parties/leaders? I would think there are a lot of people who have had enough with Russia during Soviet days and don't want to get to entrenched again. If I remember right, Hungary was one of the earlier nations to slowly and peacefully move away from Soviet dominance. I'm just surprised that politics there has the nation cozying up so much with Russia under Putin. What's the reason? Is it the politics that agree with Putin? Is it mainly Orban and his crowd or is it a more widespread move? I can understand the economics side if Hungary is so heavily dependent on Russian energy, but Orban would seem to be going well beyond that.

It's more complex than that. If you discount his U-turn and alliance with Russia, he represents the anti-communist part of Hungarian legacy. This is the part that is so difficult to understand to a Westerner about countries like Hungary or Poland.

Now this is a gross oversimplification (and this is just the extremes I am talking about here) but when communism fell, it was mainly the former commies (especially the younger generation) who turned out to represent liberal, Western ideals - part of it was self-serving, sure, but I think part of it was genuine - after all they were kids of former apparatchiks who ended up being most exposed to the West, through (limited) foreign exchange programmes and scholarships. And, unsurprisingly, being more likely to be well educated and to know a foreign language, they quickly became the new professional elite even if you discount the "nomenclatura" effect and cronyism - they were simply, objectively and meritocratically better.

The opposite extreme were uneducated, poor masses who did not catch up on the gravy train of capitalist transformation - they were already very supportive (and supported by) the traditional institutions such as the churches (which, at least in Poland, remained quite strong and came out of the communism era as pretty much the only non-government-controlled influential social institutions - there were no NGOs under commusnim). These people often represented the anti-communism opposition during the communism era and their xenophobia - and, ultimately, resentment for liberal democracy - has only deepened over the years.

Now, of course, subsequent generations (such as mine) did not clearly fit these two groups but one way or another, you had to pick your tribe. As it happens, the second tribe quickly realised it has much more in common with Putin than it does with the EU - and only very strong historical resentment (like that in Poland) can prevent them from acknowledging that.

[Duque de Bragança]

I have just learned two amazing new things.

First that there is a variety of football called 'futsal' and that there is a dedicated facility and futsal community in my own city.  Who knew?

Futsal = indoor football
Just in case it is not clear for everybody.

[Valmy]

That seems straightforward enough.  Thanks Mart.

[alfred russel]

A journalist made a VERY good point about what this is revealing: this is a fine system, but what happens after they lose an election? Control of the state media will go to the new government (the state TV especially has a nice tradition of always being the PR team of the current party in power), while their own private media empire will be in shambles, basically cut off and eliminated.

There is only one possible logical explanation for this move: Orban has stopped calculating with an election defeat as a possibility.

There are two other possibilities I think:

-they are stupid.
-The benefits of possibly staying in power a bit longer through better media control are worth the costs when they eventually lose power.

[KRonn]

There still is anywhere between one and two million voters who will believe whatever Orban tells them, on a "we have always been at war with Eurasia" 1984 level.

Other than that, their media portrays Putin how he potraits himself: the last bastion of traditional values. Coupled with a general negativity toward anyone who does things better than us (US and most of EU), it works to some level.

As for the opposition, the only properly organised rival is Jobbik and they are financed by Russia, so there you go.

The rest of the oppisition (varying degrees of leftists) range from incompetent to complacent. I think they have been bought off: they are just way too silent when one government debacle follows the next.

Well, between what you and Martinus say I guess that pretty much answers the question. That the main political opposition is also supported by Russia is sad. So there must be at least some good sized opposition among many people like the two of you? To be sliding back to the old ways but wrapped up in a new look has to have at least some real opposition, small as it might be. Any chance of new leaders emerging to oppose this trend of being in bed with Russia and Putin?

[Martinus]

Well, between what you and Martinus say I guess that pretty much answers the question. That the main political opposition is also supported by Russia is sad. So there must be at least some good sized opposition among many people like the two of you? To be sliding back to the old ways but wrapped up in a new look has to have at least some real opposition, small as it might be. Any chance of new leaders emerging to oppose this trend of being in bed with Russia and Putin?

Well, that's also a complex issue.

I don't know enough about Hungarian politics, but at least in Poland there is a right wing clinch that is not easy to break (the only difference between us and Hungary is that Poles are much more russophobic). So you have a centre-right (but with a very strong conservative wing) ruling party (PO) and even-more-to-the-right nationalistic/religious main opposition party (PiS).

They effectively dominate the political scene, sharing 70-80% of the vote (if not necessarily the popular opinion - 20-30% of people feel like they have no political representation) between themselves (and some ephemereal satelittes that sometimes split off them only to rejoin). At least in Poland, PiS has also appropriated many socialist policies and slogans (they represent the unsuccesful poor people, as I said before), but continue being staunchly conservative on social and political issues.

In that part that is left to share between other parties you have several wildly different political choices, not all of them leftist (e.g. libertarians) but even among the left the problem is that there continues (despite many efforts to date) a significant divide into two main streams.

One is the remnants of the post-communists who used to hold power for a while in the 90s (they were very well entrenched and managed to regain power after the initial disarray of the "democratic opposition") but then committed a spectacular PR suicide in the early 2000s because of a major corruption scandal. Since then they failed to come back into power but also failed to die - because they represent the interests of the nomenclatura, retired military and police officers etc. Often they are not very leftist in the political sense, especially the "old guard" (e.g. they are for death penalty, support CIA torturing people and the like). They keep getting 5-15% in general elections, but recently fell on hard times.

The other are various attempts to revive a leftist-liberal (sorta like Lib Dems in the UK, in terms of politics) movement of people who take their political heritage from the democratic opposition of the 1980s. This movement is not really a single party but a cavalcade of constantly dying, reforming, and splitting parties, with one or two occassionally gaining dominance. The popular movement of the guy I voted for in last elections fits this stream - but since then he has committed a number of blunders and his party will probably not survive till the next. They poll around 2-10% depending on how lucky they get.

There have been attempts to reconcile both leftist streams but so far without much succes (as their leaders called each other during a particularly heated parliamentary debate they see each other as "post-communist war criminals" and "pot-smoking degenerates" respectively).

So, to answer your question, we have plenty of generals on the left, just not enough soldiers.

[Martinus]

It also doesnt help that we have a voting system that favours larger parties.

While Parliamentary elections for Seym are proportional, a party needs to gain 5% of national vote to even get past the post - and then mandates are split according to a system that favours larger parties as all fractions get rounded up or down in a way favouring the strongest.

Senate, on the other hand, is first-past-the-post and out of 100 Senators, only 3 are NOT from PO or PiS, so it is even worse.

[Valmy]

While Parliamentary elections for Seym are proportional, a party needs to gain 5% of national vote to even get past the post - and then mandates are split according to a system that favours larger parties as all fractions get rounded up or down in a way favouring the strongest.

The Left clearly needs some kind of big tent party if they want to have any power then.  The 'Liberal Communists'.

[celedhring]

No place for your run-of-the-mill European social-democrats in Poland?

[Tonitrus]

Corruption is on a totally incredible rate.

Orban's previous finance minister, Gyorgy "Hungarians and Japanese are related because their newborns have red spots on their buttocks" Matolcsy has been Central Bank president for a while now.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongolian_spot

I'd be surprised if a lot of Hungarians had it tbh.

That reminds me of something I heard once.  A classmate of mine back in the day (who claimed some Native American heritage) talked about some physiological trait that apparently identifies those with NA background.  Forgot what it was though (it was rather obscure).

[KRonn]

Marty, interesting. Thanks for the info on things.

[Martinus]

No place for your run-of-the-mill European social-democrats in Poland?

Well, the "lib dems" are closest to that, but given that both commies and right wingers poach the "poor vote" (and Poles are naturally anti-social, as anything socialist has a bad vibe) there isn't just enough vote to make the difference.

[Sheilbh]

Things continue to go well in Hungary:

Entire Hungarian village for rent: includes horses, cows and a bus stop
Mayor of the village of Megyer tries to raise funds for his village and says leaseholder can even be his deputy


A community-owned horse is seen in a village east of Budapest. The village of Megyer is being put up for rent by its mayor - along with its six horses, two cows and a bus stop Photograph: Bernadett Szabo / Reuters/REUTERS
Agence France-Presse
Wednesday 25 February 2015 05.42 GMT

A Hungarian mayor is putting his entire village up for rent to put it on the map and bring in some cash, even offering the deputy mayorship as part of the bargain.

For 210,000 forints - around 700 euros - a day, interested parties can rent out all facilities in the pretty but largely deserted village of Megyer, which has a population of 18 and is located 180 kms (110 miles) southwest of Budapest.

An advertisement posted online says rental includes use of Megyer's four streets, two of them asphalted and two gravel, as well as the mayor's office, the cultural centre, the bus-stop, and seven furnished "peasant-style" houses.

"A law I brought in means an outsider can also become deputy mayor for a weekend, and even change the street names if you want," Megyer Mayor Kristof Pajer told AFP by telephone Tuesday.

Tenants can also use the village cooperative's six horses, two cows, three sheep, poultry house and four hectares of arable land.

A 42-year-old engineer from Budapest, Pajer said he fell in love with tiny Megyer when he first passed by it by chance ten years ago.

A year later, soon after buying a property there, he was elected mayor.

Pajer told AFP his goal was to save Megyer from the slow death suffered by many remote Hungarian villages whose young people leave for Budapest or abroad as soon as they can.

"Megyer was always poor, but it has kept its charming rustic atmosphere," says Pajer, who lives and works mostly in Budapest but visits the village once a week.

Only five of the village's twenty houses are lived in around the year.

"I hope the advertisement will bring Megyer some revenue, but more importantly some attention," Pajer said.

Also searching for images, I think I'd define 'charming' differently: