Hungarian Politics

[Tamas]

So do I get it right that you think Orban won because his opponents were less like him? That's 100% correct.

[Sheilbh]

So do I get it right that you think Orban won because his opponents were less like him? That's 100% correct.

Yeah, and that that sort of politics only has traction in certain situations.

[Admiral Yi]

The IMF doesn't have growth "goals."  IMF programs include growth forecasts because you need those to forecast revenues.  You need to forecast revenues so you can forecast how much external financing the country needs.

There is an upside: not getting shut out of the capital market forever and running the reduced deficit that IMF financing allows you to. 

[Tamas]

So do I get it right that you think Orban won because his opponents were less like him? That's 100% correct.

Yeah, and that that sort of politics only has traction in certain situations.

But I mean that Orban was the worst of the lot!
There has been nothing here but the race of populists. Like, the 13th month pension was promised in one of the campaigns and was only taken away on IMF insistence, and Orban even promised the 14th month pension but he still lost in 2006.

Ever since the late 80s we have been stick-saving one bankrupcy danger after the other because the MOMENT we are not an inch from death the populist rat race resumes and welfare spending spikes up.

Your conclusion is plainly wrong, and if I wouldn't know you better, it would be almost insulting.

The likes of Orban are the bane of this region and my country in particular. They represent everything which is wrong about politics, and they cater to the asia-bound darker side of our culture and national habits. If none of his kind ever gets near politics it will be too much.

[Sheilbh]

The IMF doesn't have growth "goals."  IMF programs include growth forecasts because you need those to forecast revenues.  You need to forecast revenues so you can forecast how much external financing the country needs.

There is an upside: not getting shut out of the capital market forever and running the reduced deficit that IMF financing allows you to.

They have growth as a goal which part of why, running alongside austerity and banking reform in Hungary, they wanted structural reforms which should reinforce the success of austerity.  I don't mean goals as in 'we will achieve 2% growth'.  No-one has that outside Cuba.

An upside people can care about or understand then.

[Admiral Yi]

An upside people can care about or understand then.

And you think this point *supports* your argument that populists are always right? 

[Sheilbh]

And you think this point *supports* your argument that populists are always right? 

I don't think populists are always right, I mean I hate what Orban's doing.  I can't stand Thatcher.  I've got three points on this:
Populism is necessary for democracy.
Personally I'd almost always take the populists over elitist, technocratic politics.
The people almost always get it right.  I don't know in all circumstance but when I think about elections that I know about in countries I've any knowledge of I think the people get it right.  I can think of one election in the post-1918 era in the UK which was the worst choice.  Same goes for the US and France.

[Barrister]

And you think this point *supports* your argument that populists are always right? 

I don't think populists are always right, I mean I hate what Orban's doing.  I can't stand Thatcher.  I've got three points on this:
Populism is necessary for democracy.
Personally I'd almost always take the populists over elitist, technocratic politics.
The people almost always get it right.  I don't know in all circumstance but when I think about elections that I know about in countries I've any knowledge of I think the people get it right.  I can think of one election in the post-1918 era in the UK which was the worst choice.  Same goes for the US and France.

Populism is almost certainly necessary for democracy, but to say "the people almost always get it right"?  That's almost patently untrue in almost any and every country from time to time.  YOu need only look at Italy and I will rest my case.

I'm not saying that I want rule by a technocratic elite.  Certainly not.  It's just that in a democracy the price you pay is that the people are sometimes wrong.

[Sheilbh]

Populism is almost certainly necessary for democracy, but to say "the people almost always get it right"?  That's almost patently untrue in almost any and every country from time to time.  YOu need only look at Italy and I will rest my case.

I'm not saying that I want rule by a technocratic elite.  Certainly not.  It's just that in a democracy the price you pay is that the people are sometimes wrong.

I don't think you do pay that price in general.  As I say of all British elections, since suffrage, I think we made the wrong choice maybe once (Heath - 70).  In the US I think it's similar (Carter - 76).  In Presidential elections in the V Republic I don't think the French have got it wrong. 

I don't know about Canada, but I think if you look back at the available options, even though you're on the right and may back one party, the people generally get it right.

With Italy you've a point

[Neil]

Get it right?  It's not like either party is especially right or wrong, most of the time.

[Valmy]

I think they're the only sector of the poulation which has generally liberal views.  They'd be understood in modern terms.  I don't mean that we'd return to a point which ignores the achievements of the 19th century (such as abolishing child labour), far less the 20th (the security of the welfare state).  But with that electorate I think you'd be more likely to have a majority in favour of a laissez faire attitude to social issues and a generally laissez faire attitude to the economy, low taxes and all the rest.  Basically the Languish vote

The Languish vote shall prevail as our opponents break under the weight of unsustainable debt

Right now we just wait and complain on the internet.

[Tamas]

Our President (powerless figurehead, now more than ever before, being a career ass-kisser, well regarded athlete then diplomat during the commie era, great proud national olympic boss after commie times, now chief arse-cleaner of Orban) has been discovered of getting his doctorate via copying the work of a Bulgarian sport historian, back in the days.

In other words he cheated.

The ones prone to conspiracy theories raise the concern that just how the journalist who did the busting (in a left-leaning newspaper) did happen on the discovery decades after it happened, with the original source material being obscure nowadays, to say the least.
These people suspect this is the preparation to have Orban flee to Presidentship, and later change us to a Presidential system when the storm goes away.

[Tamas]

The PM was speaking in front of some farmer organization or whatever today:

-we should eat healthy hungarian food instead of foreign trash
-it is a shame that the people of the villages buy their food instead of growing it*
-the war for arable lands and drinking water is well under way already, not with weapons, but with credit downgrades


*-yes that is the Hungarian PM wishing for subsistence farming outside of cities. Thanks!

[Zanza]

Our President (powerless figurehead, now more than ever before, being a career ass-kisser, well regarded athlete then diplomat during the commie era, great proud national olympic boss after commie times, now chief arse-cleaner of Orban) has been discovered of getting his doctorate via copying the work of a Bulgarian sport historian, back in the days.

In other words he cheated.

Does he have slimy hair and is married to a great-granddaughter of Bismarck?

[Martinus]

Guess the EU Commission has lawyers who think like me and not Sheilbh:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16593827