Hungarian Politics

[Tamas]

In my personal opinion, while he must be a talented businessman, and we would need an unpolitical technocrat like him to take the political suicide pill and reform the country, his nation-leading genius is overplayed: he received a list of demands from the IMF, and he kept to it. He did nothing more, nothing less.

But the ting is - the secrets to good government aren't exactly all that mysterious or difficult.  Keep your books balanced, moderate regulation, make sure your taxes aren't punitive.  It's just that so many governments can't resist trying to do more than that and wind up in trouble.

You are right, except that then you have a populist charismatic asshole stand up and say "we should care for our poor pipple! we should let the seniors use mass transit for free! we should support the youth in buying housese! we should make higher education free! we should pay more pensions! we should decrease energy prices by state degree!"

and he wins the election.

[Sheilbh]

All of those things are do-able in a responsible way though Tamas.

[Neil]

All of those things are do-able in a responsible way though Tamas.

Are they?  It doesn't seem like that's possible anymore.

[Admiral Yi]

With sufficient tax revenue they're very possible.

[Tamas]

All of those things are do-able in a responsible way though Tamas.

Given sufficient tax income yes. Which of course must be carefully and responsibly balanced so it does not suffocate the economy on the long term.

And in case of economic hardships, severe cuts to these welfare spendings must be made, sometimes maybe on short notice, to ensure the longevity of the system.

Do we really, REALLY think this (the selfless and responsible spending of untold amounts of money, over generations) is managable by us humans? By the political class in general?
Example shows we can't. Everyone is flocking to German bonds because Germany is the exception, not the rule.

[Martinus]

In my personal opinion, while he must be a talented businessman, and we would need an unpolitical technocrat like him to take the political suicide pill and reform the country, his nation-leading genius is overplayed: he received a list of demands from the IMF, and he kept to it. He did nothing more, nothing less.

Errr, if you are part of a nation of untermensch, the smartest thing you can do is to do what others tell you. 

You guys are even worse, you filthy Russian.

No real argument there. We have been always doing what others told us. The gist of it is that we finally understand that doing what Brussels and Berlin tell us is better for us than doing what Moscow, London, Washington DC or Vatican tell us.

[Tamas]

Besides, you detracked me.

My original point was that no matter what you do, a populist can outpromise you on state spending, given a juvenile enough population. Juvenile in terms of political culture and fiscal education.

[Valmy]

All of those things are do-able in a responsible way though Tamas.

How can you dictate prices by decree in a responsible way?

[Neil]

No real argument there. We have been always doing what others told us. The gist of it is that we finally understand that doing what Brussels and Berlin tell us is better for us than doing what Moscow, London, Washington DC or Vatican tell us.

I meant you personally.  Now do what I tell you to do and hit yourself over the head with the heaviest Apple product in the room.

[Neil]

With sufficient tax revenue they're very possible.

But then the populist has to up the ante.

[Sheilbh]

How can you dictate prices by decree in a responsible way?

Well nothing really can be done reasonably by decree.  Process matters and I hadn't really read that one.

Having said that, governments can influence energy prices and should - in this country I think we've got an oligopoly of utility providers who should probably get attacked by the regulator to promote competition.

Do we really, REALLY think this (the selfless and responsible spending of untold amounts of money, over generations) is managable by us humans? By the political class in general?
Example shows we can't. Everyone is flocking to German bonds because Germany is the exception, not the rule.

Of course it's manageable and it can only be managed by the political class.  It's either them or 'technocrats'.  Politics needs a strong dose populism to work in a remotely democratic way.  The danger for me doesn't tend to be on the fiscal side in general but when the government tries to massage the economy too much - for example what seems to be going on in Turkey right now, or New Labour's third term, that leads to real problems.

You're using the example of over generations, I think by that criteria France, Germany, the Anglo-Saxon world and Northern Europe have more or less managed this in a relatively responsible way, most of the time.  They've all been able to make adjustments and respond to different economic situations in different ways.  I've got a lot of faith in democracy,  I think it genuinely works and the electorate is almost always right.

It's worked with less success in states that are built on corruption - I think this was the nature of post-war Italian politics, it was more Latin America than Europe in many ways - and it's too soon to tell in younger democracies.  But generally I think they right themselves.  Poland will comfortably grow, Spain will come back and though this regime's a nightmare I think Hungary'll work out too.

[Tamas]

Politics needs a strong dose populism to work in a remotely democratic way

Why? I mean, I know why. Because the plebs are stupid. But why should we accept this as something good and okay? Why should we be content with the fate of a nation being in the hands of it's lowest? The poorest and least educated?

[Sheilbh]

Politics needs a strong dose populism to work in a remotely democratic way

Why? I mean, I know why. Because the plebs are stupid. But why should we accept this as something good and okay? Why should we be content with the fate of a nation being in the hands of it's lowest? The poorest and least educated?

Because more often than not they get it right.  Also without a connection between governors and governed you'll end up with an elite serving their own interests - which are not those of most people or, necessarily, the country.  The reaction against elitist rule will always be a far stronger, more virulent populism.  The two should temper one another, if you give into one then you'll end up with the other as strongly - Hungary is an example of that in the move from technocracy to populism.  I wouldn't be surprised if the same happens in Greece, Ireland and Italy.

The EU is probably the most anti-populist and elitist institution in the free world.  With the exception of Hungary (sorry ) I'd probably trust any democratically elected government over the Troika of Commission, ECB and IMF.

[Admiral Yi]

What a terrible, terrible example Shelf.  The IMF is not in the business of making judgement calls, it's in the business of getting countries in shape so they can reaccess private capital markets.  Your beloved populists are on the streets of Athens without a clue in the world about credit worthiness.

[Sheilbh]

What a terrible, terrible example Shelf.  The IMF is not in the business of making judgement calls, it's in the business of getting countries in shape so they can reaccess private capital markets.  Your beloved populists are on the streets of Athens without a clue in the world about credit worthiness.

What's do you mean by judgement calls?

Having said that I don't mind the IMF.  I'm attacking the EU and its elements in the Troika, the IMF is, I think the best of the three.