Hungarian Politics

[Martinus]

I know plenty of gay parents.

Sorry I can't adopt. I expect gay people in Hungary can't either.

And do you really want to have to prove to the government that you don't have kids because you're barren, and not out of deliberate choice?  Sounds overly complicated to me.

That's an idiotic argument and it makes me so mad you would say something like that. So it is fine to discriminate against people based on some characteristic because it would be awkward for people to prove that characteristic? That's unbelievably stupid.

Adjustments to pension isn't completely unconnected with child-rearing.  If you're raising kids that is less money you'd be able to save for your retirement.

Not true. State pension system collects a percentage of your income. The percentage is the same whether you have kids or not.

[Martinus]

Most of Europe seems to have some hang-ups over immigration however.

And in the case of eastern/former communist europe, immigrants don't seem to have a desire to move their, either.

Again, noone is really putting forward any convincing argument why having the population to decrease is such a bad thing. This is ultimately a sort of xenophobic/jingoistic argument that we can't allow the population gap against some other nation that will overrun us. This is 19th century thinking. The end result is global population constantly growing to the breaking point.

[Barrister]

What is it with idiot right wingers and breeding obsession.

Central and Eastern Europe is also facing serious unemployment. I fail to see how incentivising people to have more children (especially where such incentives work mainly for the poor, because noone with a decent income in these countries is counting on the state pension) is such a great idea.

It's pretty simple, really.  If you want your society to survive, if you want there to be services available to you in your old age, you have to have children roughly in proportion to the number of deaths per year.  You want someone to work in your nursing home and change your diapers when you're in your dotage Marty.

Well... there is one other option.  Canada has a pretty shitty fertility rate too, but we make up for it in immigration.  Most of Europe seems to have some hang-ups over immigration however.

And I utterly fail to see the connection between high unemployment and fertility rates.  Babies aren't in the labout market.

They will be in the labour market when they grow up. It's not like we need more people, which unemployment rates prove. If you want to reduce the argument to absurd levels, one working person can change diapers of 20 old people so it's not like you need to keep the replacement rates. Again, the whole "we need to keep the population growing to survive" is a false argument, that reeks of 19th century style nationalistic mentality.

Overpopulation is the problem, not "there isn't enough people".

Unemployment is a fairly short-term problem.  It goes up and down year by year.  Four years ago you didn't have an unemployment problem, and four years from now you may not have it again.  It's incredibly short-cited to look at such a short-term issue when compared to a long-term issue like demographics and fertility.

I'm not saying you want a growing population, and I'm not saying you need to ensure a particular "race" survives, but you do need a fairly stable population.

Do some google-fu on Japan and it's demographics.  It has one of the world's lowest fertility rates, and of course is almost completely closed to any immigration.  The general consensus is that Japan is completely fucked in the long term.

[Martinus]

Do some google-fu on Japan and it's demographics.  It has one of the world's lowest fertility rates, and of course is almost completely closed to any immigration.  The general consensus is that Japan is completely fucked in the long term.

In the long term, the life on Earth will be extinct. Long term demographic planning has never worked in the past - there are too many variables. And in any event, when it comes to long term predictions, overpopulation and a Malthusian catastrophe is more likely (and more worrying) than there won't be enough Hungarians to wipe old Tamas's ass. If anything, we should find a way to reduce population globally.

[Barrister]

Most of Europe seems to have some hang-ups over immigration however.

And in the case of eastern/former communist europe, immigrants don't seem to have a desire to move their, either.

I doubt that very much.  If, say, Hungary opened its doors to immigrants from the Phillipines or Bangladesh or Pakistan (and not to mention places like Somalia) they'd have as many immigrants as they would want.

[alfred russel]

Not true. State pension system collects a percentage of your income. The percentage is the same whether you have kids or not.

Marty, while I don't think the policy is a good idea, you seem to be overlooking how these programs work (assuming they Poland and Hungary are similar to how it is in most of the world). Your pension payments go to support current pensioners. They aren't in a bank account that you will draw on when you retire.

When you are a pensioner your payments will be received from then current workers. If there aren't many current workers, your generation won't have much of a pension. There is a logic in tying your pension payments to your contribution to the next generation that is paying for them. One of the reasons given for the falling birth rate in the west--which is a real problem for pension schemes--is that previously people wanted large families to support them in retirement, but now the government fills that role of support. This would reestablish that link.

[alfred russel]

I doubt that very much.  If, say, Hungary opened its doors to immigrants from the Phillipines or Bangladesh or Pakistan (and not to mention places like Somalia) they'd have as many immigrants as they would want.

In a schengen world I don't know if they could get away with that.

[Martinus]

Not true. State pension system collects a percentage of your income. The percentage is the same whether you have kids or not.

Marty, while I don't think the policy is a good idea, you seem to be overlooking how these programs work (assuming they Poland and Hungary are similar to how it is in most of the world). Your pension payments go to support current pensioners. They aren't in a bank account that you will draw on when you retire.

When you are a pensioner your payments will be received from then current workers. If there aren't many current workers, your generation won't have much of a pension. There is a logic in tying your pension payments to your contribution to the next generation that is paying for them. One of the reasons given for the falling birth rate in the west--which is a real problem for pension schemes--is that previously people wanted large families to support them in retirement, but now the government fills that role of support. This would reestablish that link.

That's not entirely true, at least in Poland (you have both elements). But that means that a person who pays the pension now and has no kids pays a greater rate already than someone who receives discounts and benefits from the state - so that evens out in the end, presumedly.

Not to mention, linking this to simply a number of babies coming out of someone's uterus (as opposed to e.g. raising a child to adulthood) is entirely moronic.

[Barrister]

I know plenty of gay parents.

Sorry I can't adopt. I expect gay people in Hungary can't either.

And do you really want to have to prove to the government that you don't have kids because you're barren, and not out of deliberate choice?  Sounds overly complicated to me.

That's an idiotic argument and it makes me so mad you would say something like that. So it is fine to discriminate against people based on some characteristic because it would be awkward for people to prove that characteristic? That's unbelievably stupid.

Most of the gay parents I know had kids the old-fashioned way.  In your case Marty all you need is to rent a womb for 9 months and a turkey baster.   

And it is common sense to base public policy over what can be easily measured.  We don't tax you based on what you could have earned, but what you actually earned, because what you could have earned would be incredibly difficult to prove.

I'll try again Marty - google "demographic decline" or the slightly more hysterical "demographic decline".  Russia, eastern europe and Japan are all in for a heap of trouble in the coming decades.

[Barrister]

Not to mention, linking this to simply a number of babies coming out of someone's uterus (as opposed to e.g. raising a child to adulthood) is entirely moronic.

If the actual policy was this I would agree with you.  I imagine though it is tied to raising children, not merely being a biological parent.

[Richard Hakluyt]

New immigrants to Hungary would probably move swiftly on to greener pastures elsewhere within the EU.

[Martinus]

Most of the gay parents I know had kids the old-fashioned way.  In your case Marty all you need is to rent a womb for 9 months and a turkey baster.   

My partner would not have any legal rights to the child in case something happened to me. And btw, I knew you were not exactly romantic, but I pity your attitude to child rearing.

[Tamas]

I have been saying for a while now: want more children, from parents who can actually feed and raise them on their own? Offer tax breaks after children. Not a fix monthly sum like we do, running a breeding program in the lowest strata, because their shitty lifestyle actually benefits from this (they can keep the child in shitty conditions and get by on the grants).

[Barrister]

Most of the gay parents I know had kids the old-fashioned way.  In your case Marty all you need is to rent a womb for 9 months and a turkey baster.   

My partner would not have any legal rights to the child in case something happened to me. And btw, I knew you were not exactly romantic, but I pity your attitude to child rearing.

What do you know about my attitude to child rearing?  I love my kid, eagerly await my second, and wish more people could experience that feeling.

[Barrister]

New immigrants to Hungary would probably move swiftly on to greener pastures elsewhere within the EU.

That probably is a problem.  I know it's an issue in Canada - areas like the east coast would like to attract more immigrants, but they all tend to get pulled into Toronto / Vancouver / Alberta.

As a total aside I was reviewing an impaired driving charge the other day.  The accused knew very little english, and asked to be read his rights in punjabi.  Well this being Edmonton in 2012...

... it was no problem, because the cop's partner who was with him also spoke punjabi. 

Back to the topic at hand: It's a problem, but there are measures that could be taken to combat it.  Quebec has been quite pro-active at inviting immigrants specifically to live in Quebec and learn French and with some success.  Make their residency contingent on residing in Hungary and/or taking Hungarian lessons.  Once they get citizenship some may ultimately leave, but some will stay.