Hungarian Politics

[Tamas]

I would agree with Josq as that's the only rational explanation left, but what could it be? He is way past even Trump in what he is able to make his followers swallow, I cannot imagine what Russian blackmail material would be worth all this for him.

[Jacob]

It may not be super egregious. As long as it's enough that it has a reasonable chance to be usable by someone - whether an internal rival or some sort of opposition - as a lever to replace Orban at the top, it's enough of a threat.

[Tonitrus]

Maybe he also deathly afraid of polonium?

[PDH]

Maybe he is just an super egotistical douche?

[Tonitrus]

He can be both. 

[Tamas]

Sadly I haven't seen an English summary of it, but Orban gave an interview to the Swiss Weltwoche paper, where he among other things explained how he understands why Putin had sleepless nights due to NATO, and how a Russian defeat is such a terrible and worst possible outcome that he can't even bear to entertain it.

[HVC]

Whatever else he is Putin did a very good job of paying off western politicians and parties.

[Tamas]

So the husband of the country's President (who is, needless to say, a completely powerless stamping machine at this stage of Orban's autocracy) has finished his 8 weeks basic training as a professional soldier in the army.

And has been promoted immediately to lieutenant-colonel.

Incidentally a lot of officers were sacked a month or two ago on the basis of "introducing a younger cadre of officers". Which was followed by a call by the army last week that retired officers are welcome to come back.

[Jacob]

It would be shocking if retired officers were welcomed back on the basis of the political affiliation and willingness to play ball with Orban's political machine....

[Tamas]

Indeed. I wager that at this stage the army had to be one of the very last places of (relative) power where people were not in position due to the grace of Orban. Now that's gone as well. 

[HVC]

What was the likelihood of a military coup anyway? He's probably running out of positions to reward cronies with, so military it is.

[Tamas]

What was the likelihood of a military coup anyway? He's probably running out of positions to reward cronies with, so military it is.

Zero chance. Yes, likely the only places left to reward people with.

But also, having to be a feudal vassal of Orban is an important thing. Years ago he forfeit a ton of grant money from Norway because a small portion of it would have gone to Hungarian NGOs directly instead of him having final say on what they are spent on.

[Sheilbh]

I would agree with Josq as that's the only rational explanation left, but what could it be? He is way past even Trump in what he is able to make his followers swallow, I cannot imagine what Russian blackmail material would be worth all this for him.

Listened to a podcast by a Russian specialist who'd just been in Budapest - generally noted that (and he wasn't original in this) the similarities of Orban with Putin circa 2007. But on Russia he said he didn't get the sense Orban was pro-Putin or pro-Russia, but rather just pro-Orban. The analogy he had which I thought was really interesting because I'd not heard it before was with Lukashenko. That, basically, Lukashenko always tried to play a double game with the West and Russia. But ultimately when it came down to it he sided with Russia (but not the point of getting properly involved) because what other option did he have.

He thought there was a similar thing with Orban noting that actually despite all the talk from Hungary, they go along with EU sanctions rather than using their veto - at worst they will (like, occasionally, Belgium and Ireland) abstain on Ukraine measures - because Orban knows who's bankrolling his state/politics.

He added that the Russian perspective on Orban (and he's not been able to visit Russia since 2022) is not that he's their man or that he's a useful idiot, but that he's a "useful cynic".

[Jacob]

That seems pretty plausible to me.

[Tamas]

So there was this ridiculous theatre where the Fidesz "parliamentary faction" "challenged" Orban ( ) over agreeing to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

So to "address concerns" a delegation was assembled of some semi-prominent Fidesz people (almost exclusively "moderates" who probably needed some good old public humiliation before they forget they are garbage) and sent to the two countries to discuss... stuff.

From the little attention I paid, they had a rather frosty reception in Finland, but Sweden was more willing to assist to the theatrics and treat them seriously.

For which they have received their due reward when the Parliament -in close synch with Turkey- announced that they'll vote only on Finland's membership for now (11 April I think).