Hungarian Politics

[Martinus]

Having met some Hungarians, this might be simply charming relative to the country-wide standard.

[Tamas]

Having met some Hungarians, this might be simply charming relative to the country-wide standard.

Having been to the parts of Poland outside of Warsaw many times over the past ten years (unlike you), let me tell you that the rural landscape is very much similar in the two countries.

[Tamas]

Marty, interesting. Thanks for the info on things.

I don't know how much he elaborated on this, but I am pretty sure the communist heritage is a big factor in both countries. What do I mean by that? The fact that even the "right" is pretty much out there in the left when it comes to classic economic policy classifications.

So, in Hungary at least, the difference between the major, more populist parties, is the ideological cover which they offer for their policy of high redistribution and state involvement in the economy. The left offers a spectrum of adhering to Western values and intention to catch up culturally, the right offers bigotric nationalistic pride and martyr complex.

[Tamas]

And forget the to-rent village, this is Hungary in 2015: a hospital's children's ward uses shopping carts to transfer sick children:

[KRonn]

I don't know how much he elaborated on this, but I am pretty sure the communist heritage is a big factor in both countries. What do I mean by that? The fact that even the "right" is pretty much out there in the left when it comes to classic economic policy classifications.

So, in Hungary at least, the difference between the major, more populist parties, is the ideological cover which they offer for their policy of high redistribution and state involvement in the economy. The left offers a spectrum of adhering to Western values and intention to catch up culturally, the right offers bigotric nationalistic pride and martyr complex.

Yeah, from what you guys have said, I'm finding that the old communist ways are still pretty ingrained in many political leaders and people. I wouldn't have thought that the case, like I said before, but the reasoning you speak about tells why pretty well.

[Martinus]

Having met some Hungarians, this might be simply charming relative to the country-wide standard.

Having been to the parts of Poland outside of Warsaw many times over the past ten years (unlike you), let me tell you that the rural landscape is very much similar in the two countries.

I was just poking fun at you.

[Martinus]

I wouldn't necessarily agree with what Tamas says - at least in Poland, the anti-socialist "libertarian" undercurrent is very strong in some quarters, but it is not the defining political issue (i.e. you can find people with such views both on the "right" and on the "left" - with issues such as religion, gay rights, abortion, attitude towards the Western culture etc. informing the political divide into the left and the right much more strongly).

It could be that Hungary is different or that Tamas considers pretty much everything left of Hayek to be "communist".

[Tamas]

I wouldn't necessarily agree with what Tamas says - at least in Poland, the anti-socialist "libertarian" undercurrent is very strong in some quarters, but it is not the defining political issue (i.e. you can find people with such views both on the "right" and on the "left" - with issues such as religion, gay rights, abortion, attitude towards the Western culture etc. informing the political divide into the left and the right much more strongly).

It could be that Hungary is different or that Tamas considers pretty much everything left of Hayek to be "communist".

There is a clear divide on cultural issues like abortion etc. Not nearly as much divide on economic issues. The libertarian wing existing on the fringes in Poland is superstrong compared to the 0.5% support they have in Hungary.

[Tamas]

Orban just had his "state of the country" speech.

I would like to point out two things:

One that will be taken up by foreing press for sure: he is painting doom and gloom for Europe, and declares that we are suffering under a great migration of people and cannot let ourselves be overwhelmed (he means the Kosovian exodus happening, which is Public Enemy Numero Uno for them right now).
Plus, he said "The Hungarian people by nature is politically incorrect, in other words, sane"

Second is more a sad and funny thing:
During their first government, and a couple of years after it (so more than ten years ago), their favourite buzzword was "polgar". It can mean "citizen" but in a societal context it basically means the middle class. They were "building the polgars' Hungary".

They DROPPED this slogan OVERNIGHT around ten years ago, starting to talk about them being with "the plebs" (I did quote that from Orban).

Fast forward to this week, days after their serious election defeat on Sunday, and now all the Fidesz dignitaries started using "polgar" again all the time, and even Orban in his speech today now after ten years defends the "polgars' Hungary" like as if we he never stopped using that word. Clearly there has been a new directive from the campaign minds. We have always been in war with Eurasia.

[Valmy]

Yeah I can definitely see that 'polgar' business slipping past the international press.

[Barrister]

Fast forward to this week, days after their serious election defeat on Sunday, and now all the Fidesz dignitaries started using "polgar" again all the time, and even Orban in his speech today now after ten years defends the "polgars' Hungary" like as if we he never stopped using that word. Clearly there has been a new directive from the campaign minds. We have always been in war with Eurasia.

I wouldn't see anything nefarious in that though.  Political parties like to have consistent messages, so they will in fact send out memos on what kind of specific language to use.

[Admiral Yi]

IIRC, the Polgar sisters used to be the only female chess players ranked grand master.

[Tamas]

So the upcoming investment in the new nuclear power plant (well its an extension of the old one but its basically as big as a new one) has been made state secret for 30 years. The particularities of it, I mean.

The biggest online news site tried short video interviews with Fidesz MPs seeing what they know about the bill they will shortly vote on authorising this. Basically, they have no idea what it is about. They were told to vote yes, so they will.

This is the biggest investment and debt in the country's entire history, and nobody apart from Orban and his closest circle (plus the Russians of course) will know anything meaningful about it.

Boggles the mind.

[Tamas]

Earlier here I mentioned how puzzled everyone has been over the apparent urgency Hungary has made the nucular power plant deal with Russia. All the public knew that there were considerations on doing the expansion project, then without much forewarning Orban went to Moscow, and a very short time after, the deal with Russia and Rosatom were announced. And it has been going through the steps like shit through goose ever since. The details are state secret, but from the Russian side we know details of the contract like a Russian comittee will have the right to influence electricity prices in Hungary once the power plant is done.

One of the rumours about this haphazard way of becoming a Russian satellite has been that Orban probably has a spotty past, he might had been an informant to the communist secret service, and the Russians probably have the file on that. A suspicion raised and kept alive by the fact that alone from the post-communist East Euro states, Hungary still hasn't made secret service observation files public.

And you might also recall this recent upheveal caused by Orban's closest-ally-since-high-school getting into a fight over the spoils with him and going berserk.

Well this oligarch-ally, Simicska was at it again to the press, very strongly hinting by a few anecdotes that he is suspecting that Orban WAS an informant, and that he also believes Russian blackmail with that is behind the cozy-ing up with Russia, a move which he quite openly hates.


In other news, Hungary is having his own little finance-sector meltdown. Couple of weeks ago the most renowned brokerage firm, Buda-Cash was found to have a LOT of money missing due to foul play, and a lot of small time savers are also heavily affected due to the firm running a bunch of savings cooperatives accross the country. My grandparents' would be as well but the family was fast enough to get their money out before all accounts were locked due to pending investigations.

And yesterday the investment arm of a financial company, Quaestor, filed for bankrupcy-protection, claiming they couldn't pay out people selling their bonds with the company following the Buda-Cash scandal.

Well apparently that is no surprise since they released about 500 million euros worth of fake bonds, all that to pay back their earlier bond releases since the company was very much in deficit for quite a while now.
Criminal charges are expected in both cases.

How did the two companies went through several audits and permission-granting procedures over the years without problem? Needless to say they both had extensive political connections. Buda-Cash with both sides, Quaestor's money was on Fidesz.

[Valmy]

And it has been going through the steps like shit through goose ever since.

People really need to use Pattonisms more often.

The details are state secret, but from the Russian side we know details of the contract like a Russian comittee will have the right to influence electricity prices in Hungary once the power plant is done.

What exactly is the justification for a simple power plant being a state secret?  What possible security issue would be at stake for simply knowing the financials?  It is pretty funny how many "state secrets" are nothing more than shields to stop embarrassing information from getting out rather than actual sensitive information.  I presume the paranoid and conspiracy theorists in Hungary are going to town with this one.  You might as well just announce 'it will be a massive scandal if anybody ever finds out what we just agreed to.'

One of the rumours about this haphazard way of becoming a Russian satellite has been that Orban probably has a spotty past, he might had been an informant to the communist secret service, and the Russians probably have the file on that. A suspicion raised and kept alive by the fact that alone from the post-communist East Euro states, Hungary still hasn't made secret service observation files public.

Maybe he and Putin used to work together in the old days.

And you might also recall this recent upheveal caused by Orban's closest-ally-since-high-school getting into a fight over the spoils with him and going berserk.

Well this oligarch-ally, Simicska was at it again to the press, very strongly hinting by a few anecdotes that he is suspecting that Orban WAS an informant, and that he also believes Russian blackmail with that is behind the cozy-ing up with Russia, a move which he quite openly hates.

So Orban's big face saving strategy is to doubledown?  Seems a little too....conspiracy theory.  Not even Orban would think that was a good long term strategy.

In other news, Hungary is having his own little finance-sector meltdown. Couple of weeks ago the most renowned brokerage firm, Buda-Cash was found to have a LOT of money missing due to foul play, and a lot of small time savers are also heavily affected due to the firm running a bunch of savings cooperatives accross the country. My grandparents' would be as well but the family was fast enough to get their money out before all accounts were locked due to pending investigations.

And yesterday the investment arm of a financial company, Quaestor, filed for bankrupcy-protection, claiming they couldn't pay out people selling their bonds with the company following the Buda-Cash scandal.

Well apparently that is no surprise since they released about 500 million euros worth of fake bonds, all that to pay back their earlier bond releases since the company was very much in deficit for quite a while now.
Criminal charges are expected in both cases.

How did the two companies went through several audits and permission-granting procedures over the years without problem? Needless to say they both had extensive political connections. Buda-Cash with both sides, Quaestor's money was on Fidesz.

Banks are good at avoiding oversight.  Well with everything else going on Hungary better hope she doesn't need German assistance.