2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Grey Fox]

Isn't one of the big issues with modern polling that it is conducted via landlines only which tends to skew toward older and rural folks with those demographics being much redder than the voting population as a whole?

No.

There are faults with polling, but they have not relied on landlines only for years and years.

Proof: I am somehow on a list of people that answers pollsters, so I get calls pretty regularly.  A few years ago we were the Canadian equivalent of Nielson family that tracked our TV viewership.

Anyways - the fact I am regularly called by pollsters, as a middle-aged, middle-class cis-hetero white guy, might reflect a certain bias.

But they only ever call my cell phone.

I'm on a list too, I signed up for it. I've never had a land line of my own.

I'm also a middle-aged middle-class cis-hetero white guy and yet our politics are nothing alike.

[Tonitrus]

Biden v Trump debates reportedly planned on Jun 27 and Sep 10.

And the rules the Biden team insisted on seem to be aimed at neutering Trump's interruptive/off-the-cuff style...e.g. turning off the opposing microphone when it is not their turn...but I am sure nothing will stop Trump from shouting/haranguing without said microphone.

[crazy canuck]

Isn't one of the big issues with modern polling that it is conducted via landlines only which tends to skew toward older and rural folks with those demographics being much redder than the voting population as a whole?

No.

There are faults with polling, but they have not relied on landlines only for years and years.

Proof: I am somehow on a list of people that answers pollsters, so I get calls pretty regularly.  A few years ago we were the Canadian equivalent of Nielson family that tracked our TV viewership.

Anyways - the fact I am regularly called by pollsters, as a middle-aged, middle-class cis-hetero white guy, might reflect a certain bias.

But they only ever call my cell phone.

I'm on a list too, I signed up for it. I've never had a land line of my own.

I'm also a middle-aged middle-class cis-hetero white guy and yet our politics are nothing alike.

But Sophie's point is a good one, pollsters used to be able to get more randomized samples by using phone books, now people have to opt in in some way so there is more is a selection bias.

[Josquius]

Isn't one of the big issues with modern polling that it is conducted via landlines only which tends to skew toward older and rural folks with those demographics being much redder than the voting population as a whole?

No.

There are faults with polling, but they have not relied on landlines only for years and years.

Proof: I am somehow on a list of people that answers pollsters, so I get calls pretty regularly.  A few years ago we were the Canadian equivalent of Nielson family that tracked our TV viewership.

Anyways - the fact I am regularly called by pollsters, as a middle-aged, middle-class cis-hetero white guy, might reflect a certain bias.

But they only ever call my cell phone.

I'm on a list too, I signed up for it. I've never had a land line of my own.

I'm also a middle-aged middle-class cis-hetero white guy and yet our politics are nothing alike.

But Sophie's point is a good one, pollsters used to be able to get more randomized samples by using phone books, now people have to opt in in some way so there is more is a selection bias.

There is, and it is a potential problem.
But with top scale stuff they usually have a decent enough understanding of that to control for it. They understand based on someone's criteria precisely how likely they are to reply so will reach out to more busy 30-somethings than is statistically necessary to make sure they cover that group and don't just get unemployed groups.

Though I do get vibes with this political stuff in particular the selection bias is a very active one of people consciously seeking out these polls to try and play a role in shifting the discourse.

Worth remembering on polls as much as they're criticised for always being wrong et al- Trump's win was well within the margin of error.

[crazy canuck]

"They" don't actually do a good job of it.

Does this mean that polls just aren't accurate? Not always, but they can present a different picture than reality. This is largely because "the real margin of error is often about double the one reported," Pew wrote. Many polls typically have a margin of error less than 3%, which "leads people to think that polls are more precise than they really are," the outlet added. But this margin "addresses only one source of potential error: the fact that random samples are likely to differ a little from the population just by chance."


There are at least three other identifiable sources of data errors that can come from poll taking, Pew added, but most polls don't calculate these metrics into their margins of error. The differing approaches in how polls are taken can also have "consequences for data quality, as well as accuracy in elections," Pew added. As a result, a 2016 study from The New York Times showed, the actual margin of error in most historical polls is closer to 6% or 7%, not 3%. This represents an error range of 12 to 14 data points, the Times said.

https://theweek.com/politics/2024-election-polls-accuracy

[The Brain]

I'm not convinced Swedish youtubers are an authority.