Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

Started by mongers, August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM

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Josquius

My worry with Putin popping off and the inevitable power struggle is what happens to the nukes.
It doesn't seem too hard to believe some could fall to an absolute psycho who thinks firing off a few/handing them over to other willing crazies is a good idea.
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Tamas

Quote from: Josquius on Today at 03:27:04 AMMy worry with Putin popping off and the inevitable power struggle is what happens to the nukes.
It doesn't seem too hard to believe some could fall to an absolute psycho who thinks firing off a few/handing them over to other willing crazies is a good idea.

Yes, that's the only reason to not wish for a complete breakup of the Russian Empire. Bunch of medieval warlords with hundreds of nukes each sounds like a terrible idea.


The Brain

Hopefully many nukes are in pretty poor shape.
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https://x.com/feher_junior/status/1793389136503546339?s=46&t=k-p3IFGuNJl6IL9qeh-mQA

QuoteMichael McCaul: -"Congress gave them [Ukraine] the equipment, but it did not put any restrictions on the use of those weapons. It is Jake Sullivan and your administration that have put restrictions on them,"
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The Minsky Moment

#16789
Quote from: crazy canuck on Today at 02:37:40 AMThere is more clarity now on the US prohibition on using arms to attack within Russia.

If the quote JR linked was accurate, it did not reflect the policy of the US.  Here is an article describing the debate within the Biden administration to remove the prohibition.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/us/politics/white-house-ukraine-weapons-russia.html?unlocked_article_code=1.uE0.vFpt.wkH5BNkBfTQA&smid=url-share

Blinken's position -- that the US would not either ban or encourage the use of American armaments for hitting the Russian territory -- was expressed in an official joint press conference and transcript has since been posted to the State Department website.  By definition, it is the policy of the US, unless countermanded by the President.  And the President has made no statement on the matter.  Some back channel communication from Jake Sullivan - which may or may not exist and whose content is unknown - is not policy, and the Ukrainians are free to consider it as they wish.  Sullivan's position is important and influential, but at the end of the day he is a glorified staffer with a purely advisory role.

If sometime today, Ukrainian armed forces used US equipment to strike targets in Russia, they would not be in violation of any official US policy and if questioned, could point to Blinken's official statement as authorization. 

I can't comment on how the NYT reports, but I will say that nothing in the article contradicts what I've said above.
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The Minsky Moment

So there is no misunderstanding, personally I do not agree with the Biden admin policy - I think it has been too cautious and has miscalibrated the different risks.  I think the administration was far too slow getting key weapons systems out the door and has been too cautious on use.

But I also believe these are hard and complicated decisions to make.  I'm aware that Biden and Sullivan have access to intelligence sources and information that I don't.  And that they are making and have to make judgments about the domestic political impact of different policies, where securing aid dollars depends on threading through the eye of the Congressional needle and where Putin's Bitch is waiting in the wings to take over.

It's always easier to play QB behind the monitor and keyboard than on the field.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Tamas

Estonia acuses Russia of creating a border incident after Russian border guards last night removed Estonian lighting buoys from the river on their border.

This and the pushbto redraw sea borders, all it takes is successful capture of a few villages for the Russians to get in your face again. This is not going to end until they are defeated decisively

It's lile Germany after WW1. Their empire collapsed but their own belief in their right to bully and dominate people has not. The tricky question is how to destroy them like the Germans without destroying human civilisation along with them.


Legbiter

Sweden's setting up further long-term assistance to Ukraine including material directly from industry. Every vatnik should have a Swedish artillery shell with his name on it.  :thumbsup: 

https://x.com/minna_alander/status/1793202883413860385
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Tamas

Apparently Russia's Deputy Chief of the General Staff has been arrested today along with 3 more Russian generals on charges of bribery (which I have no doubt are true). Belarus' Chief of General Staff has been fired today on reaching maximum military age at 50-something.

Again, this does not strike me as things going well in Russia.

Jacob

Tamas - I don't know who you are watching, but a while ago I saw a gentleman claiming that the arrest of that one colonel protégé Shoigu's indicated the start of a full blown elite power struggle.

These recent arrests of General level staff seems to support that hypothesis.

Syt

I'm pretty sure that anyone in the upper echelons of Putin's regime and military could be arrested for corruption with plenty of justification. For it to happen you have to lose favor or be too obvious about it (the latter seems unlikely). However, taking someone down with charges of corruption has to be managed carefully lest they squeal and take down large chunks of a network with them.
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