Who's Afraid of a Hung Parliament?

[Agelastus]

The country hasn't been split into thirds since 1918.  This isn't 1974 with a tiny Liberal rump playing kingmaker.  This is three parties all getting between 26-36% really.

1923/4 would be a better example of what it looks like we are going to have. That parliament didn't last all that long, did it?

I wonder, speaking of Major, if climate change could do to Cameron's Conservative Party what Europe did to Major's.  The grass-roots and many back benchers are far, far more suspicious than the leadership.

That or Europe will do so again. That's why my prediction in the other thread was that the next parliament will not last anywhere near five years, more like three (based on the Tories gaining a small majority - and I'm still not convinced by the opinion polls, I have 1992 ringing in my head.)

The markets aren't afraid.  They were initially nervous a month or two ago, now they've got used to the idea like everyone else.

Interesting. My impression is that "the markets" have not changed their opinion one dot. "The markets" have just hunkered down to minimise the waves in the lead up to the election.

[Josquius]

I've been somewhat disappointed in by how little the Lib Dems have been able to 'moderate' the Tories.

Somewhat is putting it very mildly for me...

[Admiral Yi]

What sort of "moderation" were you hoping for Squeeze?

[Josquius]

What sort of "moderation" were you hoping for Squeeze?

Toning down some tory policies, getting rid of their worst stuff. Not whole scale going along with everything they want.

[Jaron]

If I have to go to Parliament then I hope at least the MPs are well hung.

[Admiral Yi]

Toning down some tory policies, getting rid of their worst stuff. Not whole scale going along with everything they want.

What sort of toning down and getting rid were you hoping for?

[Josquius]

Toning down some tory policies, getting rid of their worst stuff. Not whole scale going along with everything they want.

What sort of toning down and getting rid were you hoping for?

Not doing the complete opposite of their campaign promises and quadrupling tuition fees for one.
And of course toning down the cuts to more sane levels.

[Barrister]

Toning down some tory policies, getting rid of their worst stuff. Not whole scale going along with everything they want.

What sort of toning down and getting rid were you hoping for?

Not doing the complete opposite of their campaign promises and quadrupling tuition fees for one.
And of course toning down the cuts to more sane levels.

cutting expenses is the only sane thing for your country to do.

[Josquius]

cutting expenses is the only sane thing for your country to do.

Which every party agrees on.
Its not a either or decision however, there are better ways to do it than the way the current government is going about it. Far more gradual cuts would help to balance economic recovery with paying back some of the debt racked up trying to stop going under over the past few years.

[Admiral Yi]

Which every party agrees on.
Its not a either or decision however, there are better ways to do it than the way the current government is going about it. Far more gradual cuts would help to balance economic recovery with paying back some of the debt racked up trying to stop going under over the past few years.

It's not clear to me that gradual cuts would have convinced international investors to keep on buying gilts.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think they could have gone a bit slower. My suspicion is that they want the job done in 4 years; thus permitting a "giveaway" budget in the final year of this parliament before the next general election. Perhaps it should have been a six year plan...........but you will never get these in the UK given the electoral timetable.

[DontSayBanana]

I'm undecided as to how afraid I am... are we talking stereotypical Chinese hung?  Or are we talking Peter North hung?

[Sheilbh]

I think they could have gone a bit slower. My suspicion is that they want the job done in 4 years; thus permitting a "giveaway" budget in the final year of this parliament before the next general election. Perhaps it should have been a six year plan...........but you will never get these in the UK given the electoral timetable.

They could have gone a lot slower.  I get that they had to frontload cuts because otherwise things slide but I believe that my area's budget's getting cut overall by 10% over the next 5 years but in the next year there's a 20% cut from central government, and they can't increase council tax.  And this is Tower Hamlets.  You can't make 'efficiencies' of that size and you're not just cutting the flab.

Personally I think the government's really not doing very well.  Their policies are full of contradictions and confusions (not necessarily because of coalition making either, the education policy's a prime example), or it's been sprung on the country (NHS, forests), or it's been hamfisted (foreign policy - Cameron's got far too loose a tongue for a PM), or they've just fucked up the communication in a big way (the BS agenda and justice/penal policy).  I thought both parties had interesting ideas and the coalition agreement was a decent blueprint for the next few years.  I can't think of one area where I think they've actually managed to implement any sort of policy reasonably well - except, possibly, for the cuts, which I think are wrong, or the welfare reforms which have attracted broad support and seem to have the benefit of being more than just superficially attractive. 

They're really very lucky the Labour party's only got Ed Miliband against them and even he's scoring a few hits.

[Admiral Yi]

Tricky and Shelf: you may be right.  But you're also both operating at a point in which there are no repercussions to hazarding an incorrect guess.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I accept that this is just gossip my dear Admiral 

Personally I would prefer to err on the side of sound money rather than ramping up the debt to potentially unsustainable levels. So, if the economy goes back into recession and we enter a death spiral then I'll have been wrong.

@Sheilbh - indeed, this bunch seem very amateurish. I wonder if this is a perverse consequence of so many of them being "professional" politicians rather than people who have done serious work in other areas? The problem is that Labour look very similar. Vote for the amateurs who support bloodsucking bankers or vote for the amateurs who support bloodsucking bureaucrats - not much of a choice.

The NHS reforms are a case in point; they imagine that they will reduce bureaucracy with them. They also seem to think that doctors are exceptionally altruistic. I think that the doctors will hire management consultants to maximise their own incomes; my wife is knowledgeable in this area, we anticipate a consultancy bonanza - as a taxpayer I'm appalled.