Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[MadImmortalMan]

What's the most efficient way to short gold in the long term?  I'm thinking that buying puts in the gold ETF, like GLD, would be that, but are there better ways?

That's the way I would do it. I made some trades with calls on GLD last week. I also had a pile of shares in it that I unloaded about two hours ago.

[Ed Anger]

I wake up, and things seem a bit more....stable.

They are waiting for the regular "everything is under control" speech from Bernanke, to rally. Then crash again.

I bet 6 quatloos it stays positive today. Of course, I'm not putting anything into this market.

Huh. I am: great.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I'm back in, but with only about half what I had invested before. It is in safe shares, you know, the ones that go down just like all the others when the market is tanking 

[Ed Anger]

I turn on CNBC, and see that French banks are getting punched in the balls.

My investing stance has moved from Calm to Mildly Spooked.

[MadImmortalMan]

If we could just keep the Europe markets closed for a couple weeks, we'd have an awesome rally.

[Martinus]

And we're back!

[alfred russel]

I have a personal rule against shorting anything that I've only broken once, and I've never shorted an interest bearing instrument, however...if 10 year treasury notes go under 2%, I'm going to be tempted to short treasuries.

[alfred russel]

So an informal poll: by month end, what are the chances we crash?

Condition 1: A one day drop of 10% or more?

Condition 2: We drop 20% from where we are now by the end of the month (S&P 500 is 1135)?

I think the odds are good if we get some bad news (such as a major bank failure, or a worsening debt crisis in europe).

[DGuller]

I'm willing to bet that there is no crash, with real money.  The bad shit always happens in September.

[MadImmortalMan]

I got some puts on silver just after it peaked a bit ago.

[citizen k]

It is in safe shares, you know, the ones that go down just like all the others when the market is tanking 

But have juicy dividends that soften the market's drops?

[alfred russel]

I'm willing to bet that there is no crash, with real money.  The bad shit always happens in September.

If I can't make a caveat (such as I did in the previous post), I'd say the odds are less than 50-50. But I still think there is a significant risk of a crash.

[MadImmortalMan]

The S&P's dividend yield is now higher than Treasuries.

[Richard Hakluyt]

It is in safe shares, you know, the ones that go down just like all the others when the market is tanking 

But have juicy dividends that soften the market's drops?

Yeah, British utilities that are yielding 6% and slowly increase their dividends year-on-year. Their price though is, to me at least, surprisingly volatile 

[MadImmortalMan]

If we could just keep the Europe markets closed for a couple weeks, we'd have an awesome rally.

Once again, Europe closes for the day, we rally.