Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

Started by MadImmortalMan, December 21, 2009, 04:32:41 AM

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Admiral Yi

#4140
April 21, 2022, 08:42:08 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:21:38 PMSo I am following Hab's advice from facebook and waiting for May 1st for the new I series US savings bonds. Supposed to get 9%+ rate on on them. I plan on buying them on May Day while wearing a top hat and monocle.

No shit? :o

Valmy

#4141
April 21, 2022, 08:48:48 PM Last Edit: April 21, 2022, 08:51:22 PM by Valmy
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 08:42:08 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:21:38 PMSo I am following Hab's advice from facebook and waiting for May 1st for the new I series US savings bonds. Supposed to get 9%+ rate on on them. I plan on buying them on May Day while wearing a top hat and monocle.

No shit? :o

I mean that is what he said they would be at next month. Right now they are at 7.12%

If true I am buying the $10,000 dollar max.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Admiral Yi

#4142
April 21, 2022, 08:51:04 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:48:48 PMI mean that is what he said they would be at next month. Right now they are at 7.12%

Well shit.  How can Treasury bonds be at 3ish when savings bonds are at 7?  Savings bonds have always been the poor cousin of the family.

Jacob

#4143
April 21, 2022, 08:52:04 PM
Quote from: DGuller on April 21, 2022, 08:26:07 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 08:07:42 PMIt's a variable cost.  You don't build a gigantic marketing supertanker that costs the same whether you market to one person or a billion, you spend incremental dollars to market to each person.
I think it's a fixed cost from the point of view of needing to create a network of a certain size in order for your business model to be viable.  A lot of startups spend absurd amounts of their venture capital acquiring customers, it can be many times over the revenue from the customer. 

Are they doing it because they think it's a viable business model to spend 300% of customer revenue on customer acquisition?  Probably not, I think they realize that it's hard to be profitable when your variable expense is more than 100% of your revenue.  The reason they're doing that is because they need to get the critical mass, before their business model starts generating a momentum of their own.  Until they get that critical mass, it doesn't make sense to relate their customer acquisition costs to their revenue.

This makes sense if you think there's a significant network effect and you want to lock in your first mover advantage. Otherwise, less so... except, of course, if customer numbers is part of your sales pitch for acqusition/ IPO.

Valmy

#4144
April 21, 2022, 08:53:55 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 08:51:04 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:48:48 PMI mean that is what he said they would be at next month. Right now they are at 7.12%

Well shit.  How can Treasury bonds be at 3ish when savings bonds are at 7?  Savings bonds have always been the poor cousin of the family.

The way he explained it they are indexed to the inflation rate by some formula. I don't anticipate this current inflation to last long, at least not 30 years long, so it seems insane not to jump on it.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Habbaku

#4145
April 21, 2022, 08:56:11 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:21:38 PMSo I am following Hab's advice from facebook and waiting for May 1st for the new I series US savings bonds. Supposed to get 9%+ rate on on them. I plan on buying them on May Day while wearing a top hat and monocle.

If you can afford to do so and already have your account set up, there's no reason not to buy them now. Then you're effectively locking in the 7.12 + estimated 9.6%. Remember, that 9.6% is only guaranteed to last the six months. Hypothetically, the CPI crashes and you might only get 5% for the year!  :lol:
The medievals were only too right in taking nolo episcopari as the best reason a man could give to others for making him a bishop. Give me a king whose chief interest in life is stamps, railways, or race-horses; and who has the power to sack his Vizier (or whatever you care to call him) if he does not like the cut of his trousers.

Government is an abstract noun meaning the art and process of governing and it should be an offence to write it with a capital G or so as to refer to people.
-J. R. R. Tolkien

Valmy

#4146
April 21, 2022, 08:59:19 PM
Quote from: Habbaku on April 21, 2022, 08:56:11 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:21:38 PMSo I am following Hab's advice from facebook and waiting for May 1st for the new I series US savings bonds. Supposed to get 9%+ rate on on them. I plan on buying them on May Day while wearing a top hat and monocle.

If you can afford to do so and already have your account set up, there's no reason not to buy them now. Then you're effectively locking in the 7.12 + estimated 9.6%. Remember, that 9.6% is only guaranteed to last the six months. Hypothetically, the CPI crashes and you might only get 5% for the year!  :lol:

Safest and easiest money ever. Thanks for alerting me to this situation :mono:

So really? Buy them now and not wait until May 1st? Well alright then. I will go get my top hat and monocle.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Habbaku

#4147
April 21, 2022, 09:00:08 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on April 21, 2022, 08:51:04 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 21, 2022, 08:48:48 PMI mean that is what he said they would be at next month. Right now they are at 7.12%

Well shit.  How can Treasury bonds be at 3ish when savings bonds are at 7?  Savings bonds have always been the poor cousin of the family.

I Series bonds are designed to be good wards against inflation. They have their rates built off two components--a fixed rate (0% at the moment, lol), and a CPI-based component. At the moment, the CPI component--due to high inflation--is 7.12%, as Valmy intimated. Next month, they go up to an estimated 9.6%.

It's a ridiculously good opportunity if you're sitting on spare cash or looking for a place to diversify for ~1 year.

There are a few downsides, however. Foremost is the purchase cap--$10,000 of electronic bonds and an additional $5,000 for paper per Social Security number. In addition, you have to register for the charmingly Geocities-era Treasury website which may or may not send you down a bit of a rabbit hole of having to go to a local financial institution to get them to validate you.

Next is that the rates are only fixed in six-month increments, so hypothetically the CPI could crash over the next several months and the rate will go down with it. Not the worst thing, except...

Selling any time before 1 year is forbidden. Selling between 1-5 years incurs a 1-quarter coupon penalty, so if you sell right at the 1 year mark, you're "only" getting 3 quarters of interest. Not the worst thing if the rate is a constant 9.6% and then crashes right after...
The medievals were only too right in taking nolo episcopari as the best reason a man could give to others for making him a bishop. Give me a king whose chief interest in life is stamps, railways, or race-horses; and who has the power to sack his Vizier (or whatever you care to call him) if he does not like the cut of his trousers.

Government is an abstract noun meaning the art and process of governing and it should be an offence to write it with a capital G or so as to refer to people.
-J. R. R. Tolkien

Valmy

#4149
April 21, 2022, 09:48:44 PM
Ooof you are right the registration method is remarkably obtuse.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Grey Fox

#4150
April 21, 2022, 09:55:36 PM
That's a good opportunity. Hopefully one of my funds will buy some US bonds, if that is somehow allowed.
Colonel Caliga is Awesome.

Admiral Yi

#4151
April 21, 2022, 10:22:38 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on April 21, 2022, 09:55:36 PMThat's a good opportunity. Hopefully one of my funds will buy some US bonds, if that is somehow allowed.

Only individuals can buy savings bonds.  That's why they ask for a social.  No institutional buyers allowed.

AFAIK

Josquius

#4152
April 23, 2022, 02:19:31 PM
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Jacob

#4154
April 25, 2022, 10:28:58 AM
I hope none of you had major positions on stocks traded on the Shanghai exchange. Looks like a roughly 40-50% drop across the board.
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