Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[Josquius]

Isn't Lloyd's at a high point right now?

[Richard Hakluyt]

We'll see.

[mongers]

Isn't Lloyd's at a high point right now?

Tyr the Capitalist.

[Habbaku]

Tyr the Gambler, based on his past statements.

[Josquius]

Money and the stock market are facts of life.
That I hope in the long term they cease to exist doesn't mean I think it's imminent. And I live in the world as it is. :p

[mongers]

Money and the stock market are facts of life.
That I hope in the long term they cease to exist doesn't mean I think it's imminent. And I live in the world as it is. :p

Most socialist 'compromise' in this way. 

[crazy canuck]

Canadian banks have been flying.

Canadian banks have been the bedrock of Canadian portfolio managers since the 90s.   

[Tamas]

Mah stocks!

[Admiral Yi]

This thread is not quite as much fun when you're getting slaughtered.

[Syt]

My portfolio lost 10% since December.

It's still 30% in the green, though.

[Tamas]

https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/let-the-wild-rumpus-begin/

All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend. But before they did, a handful went on to become superbubbles of 3-sigma or greater: in the U.S. in 1929 and 2000 and in Japan in 1989. There were also superbubbles in housing in the U.S. in 2006 and Japan in 1989. All five of these superbubbles corrected all the way back to trend with much greater and longer pain than average.Today in the U.S. we are in the fourth superbubble of the last hundred years.Previous equity superbubbles had a series of distinct features that individually are rare and collectively are unique to these events. In each case, these shared characteristics have already occurred in this cycle. The checklist for a superbubble running through its phases is now complete and the wild rumpus can begin at any time

A speculative investor frenzy that generated stories for distant decades, which we have had for well over a year;
A penultimate blow-off phase where stock gains accelerate, as we had in 2020;
And the ultimate narrowing phase – unique to these few superbubbles – where a decreasing number of very large blue chips go up as riskier and more speculative stocks underperform or even decline, as they did in 1929 and 2000 and as they have done since February 2021.
All previous large bubbles have deflated back to their trend levels, Grantham explains. This time, this would mean the S&P 500 index plunging around 45%, back to its trend value of about 2500 points.

Grantham explains:

The bottom line is that in general the bubbles in multiple assets, not just equities, have continued to inflate and therefore the potential pain from a break has increased.

As usually happens, the equity bubble begins to deflate from the riskiest end of the market first – as it has been doing since last February. So, good luck! We'll all need it.

I do feel like buying Paypal at 192 was a serious mistake. If it goes solidly below 170 I am probably getting rid of it.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm back where I was at the start of '21.  All my '21 gains wiped out, including the money I made selling calls.

I guess it could be worse.

[Habbaku]

This thread is not quite as much fun when you're getting slaughtered.

[Tamas]

This thread is not quite as much fun when you're getting slaughtered.

My stock market account is still fairly in the green although much diminished following my terribly timed foray into Paypal. My gambling account though is in shambles.

[crazy canuck]

I continue to be very happy I pay someone who knows what they are doing to invest my money and set up my financial affairs.  He is definitely not a flavour of the month type and very much a slow and steady wins the race type.  Helps me sleep much better knowing my investment goals are well on target.