Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[Monoriu]

Are the analysts saying this is a reaction to China and other international crap?

China, yes.  For the past two decades, that China is growing at a quick pace can be regarded as a fundamental economic truth.  But now, the inevitable slowdown happens.  The question is, is this part of a normal business cycle, or has China hit a ceiling without political reforms? 

China's slowdown is very obvious to us living in HK.  The number of mainland tourists has decreased, and they spend less.  The retail scene is ugly.  To let signs everywhere.  Restaurants are far less busy.  Everybody are doing discount sales.  The luxury brands are retreating, their flagship stores closing.  When I go to China, the hotels are empty.  Macau (basically China's Las Vegas) is now having -20% GDP growth.  No, the zero is not a typo.

Wow, looks pretty tough going right now. Is there talk of a recession looming? I don't think anyone knows yet if this is long term or a short hit, but from the little I've seen reported it does seem that the Chinese government has been helping prop up the economy quite significantly and that all is starting to implode a bit. Kind of like the US Treasury printing money that helps prop up the stock market and any news of the Feds increasing interest rates even a little sends some waves through the market. And I think talk of such increases, possibly in a month or so, have added to fears over the Chinese stock market hits and added to the US market's woes.

Don't know about you guys, but recession is already upon us.  Now 

[Admiral Yi]

Some impressive rallies last couple days.

[Monoriu]

Some impressive rallies last couple days.

I hate these.  I am assembling a cash fund to buy low, so I want the stock market to enter free fall.  Pay day for August is coming up 

[MadImmortalMan]

We'll be back there. 

Anyway, with Macau down 20 I'm selling short some gaming companies.

[Admiral Yi]

Rally over.  Mono pleased.

[Phillip V]

I closed out my 1-week oil speculation this past Friday for a 17% gain.  Now, I have the cash waiting for another go.

[Admiral Yi]

Short I assume?

[Monoriu]

Beijing State-owned Assets HK Management Company Limited is offering US$ bonds at 4.3% yield.  10 years until maturity. 

[Admiral Yi]

Not yet.  Wait for the Fed to raise rates.

[Monoriu]

Not yet.  Wait for the Fed to raise rates.

I've been waiting for, what, 7-8 years now for the US to raise rates.  All I get are delays after delays.  They always have some excuse not to do it.  I imagine that they may say, oh we were REALLY planning to do it, but because China is slowing down we have to reconsider blah blah blah.  I am sick and tired of their [expletives deleted] excuses.  I am glad that I did not wait when I bought the bonds that I own now. 

[Admiral Yi]

OK, don't wait.

[Monoriu]

OK, don't wait.

Wanda Properties is offering bonds with 5.6% yield, 9 years to maturity.  Wanda is owned the one of the richest men in China, and is...linked with Jia, an ex-Politburo Standing Committee member and ex-Chairman of the Political Consultative Conference.  Previously that should be considered safe, but the unspoken rule that ex-Politburo Standing Committee members might never be prosecuted, no matter what crimes he might have committed, was broken just a few months ago.  So I am not too sure. 

This probably belongs to the tabloids, but Wanda made international news because they tried to pull down some historical building in Madrid but faced strong political opposition. 

[Admiral Yi]

I thought you were storing up manna to buy into the US dip?

[Monoriu]

I thought you were storing up manna to buy into the US dip?

More like stocking up to buy into the HK dip.  The HK market has dropped 25% from the highs.  That's a much bigger decline than the US one.  But I like to keep my options open.  Checking the bond yields takes 3 minutes. 

[Monoriu]

Ok, I have received the dividends and interests, and it is time to buy again.

I have Century Tel, General Electric, HCP, Mattel, Philip Morris, AT&T, Royal Dutch Shell, Mid Cap ETF and S&P500 ETF. 

Any recommendations?  I can pick three this time.