U.N. Nuclear Agency Calls Iran Inquiry ‘Dead End’

[Hansmeister]

Do you think Obama should have voiced more support for them?

If there had been a high likelihood that throwing them under the bus would have led to Iran ending it's nuke program I would probably have been in favor.  I don't think that's the case.  I think Obama gave away something for nothing.

You're kidding right?

The last thing the Iranian opposition wanted was for a US President to trumpet his support publicly.

And the reason the pro-democracy protestors were holding up signs in english asking for help was?

[The Minsky Moment]

Are you concluding this based on statements by the opposition or through inference?

Inferred from the fact that both principal opposition candidates are rabidly US; and from the fact that the Iranian government has fallen over itself in its rush to claim that the opposition is being stage-managed from Washington.

Either way, if that was part of the calculation that didn't pan out too well either.

How so?

[The Minsky Moment]

And the reason the pro-democracy protestors were holding up signs in english asking for help was?

Same reason everyone everywhere who wants global media attention prints sign in English: to get broadcast on the CNN and BBC prime-time feeds.

[Admiral Yi]

How so?

Ahmejibajibad is still in office.  The opposition is in jail.  Where's the upside?

You can speculate that some Iranians joined the protests because it was untainted by the Great Satan, and I can just as easily speculate that some stayed away because of US indifference.

[The Minsky Moment]

Ahmejibajibad is still in office.  The opposition is in jail.  Where's the upside?

It hasn't been that long yet.

I can just as easily speculate that some stayed away because of US indifference.

I agree that it is easy to speculate, but it is hard to support that particular speculation, even with inferential proof.

[Hansmeister]

And the reason the pro-democracy protestors were holding up signs in english asking for help was?

Same reason everyone everywhere who wants global media attention prints sign in English: to get broadcast on the CNN and BBC prime-time feeds.

Why bother if the protestors didn't want outside help?

[The Minsky Moment]

And the reason the pro-democracy protestors were holding up signs in english asking for help was?

Same reason everyone everywhere who wants global media attention prints sign in English: to get broadcast on the CNN and BBC prime-time feeds.

Why bother if the protestors didn't want outside help?

To demonstrate their power to command world attention and to reinforce their credibility as a significant mass movement.

[Fate]

No one likes foreign interference in their own national political affairs. It figures that tone deaf GOPtards haven't learned their lesson from the last time we fucked with Iran. A verbal or financial endorsement from America and/or Jewland would be the quickest way to marginalize legitimate opposition forces in Iran.

[Neil]

No one likes foreign interference in their own national political affairs.

Depends.

[derspiess]

No one likes foreign interference in their own national political affairs.

Depends.

Glorious Revolution FTW

[Admiral Yi]

I agree that it is easy to speculate, but it is hard to support that particular speculation, even with inferential proof.

I can call your unstated assertion bad names too, but where does that get us?

Everything else being equal, people prefer to be on the winning side, and tend to be encouraged when others say they are doing the right thing.  On the Great Satan side of the debate you have the unproven (to my mind) assumption that the people (as opposed to the state) of Iran buy into it, and think that being on the same side as the US automatically delegitimizes a cause.

[Admiral Yi]

No one likes foreign interference in their own national political affairs. It figures that tone deaf GOPtards haven't learned their lesson from the last time we fucked with Iran. A verbal or financial endorsement from America and/or Jewland would be the quickest way to marginalize legitimate opposition forces in Iran.

Good thing we stayed away from all the color revolutions.  Or South Africa under apartheid.  Or Zimbabwe.  Or Myanmar.

[Sheilbh]

If there had been a high likelihood that throwing them under the bus would have led to Iran ending it's nuke program I would probably have been in favor.  I don't think that's the case.  I think Obama gave away something for nothing.

The US was exactly right to not talk about supporting the protestors but rather to phrase it in terms of condemning violence against them.  Making a statement of support, or whatever, would have made Americans feel warm and fuzzy and good.  I think the insistence I heard on the need to show support for the protestors was a ridiculous desire for the political equivalent of auto-erotica. 

I think you underestimate the power of nationalism and the unpopularity of foreign powers being perceived as meddling.  It would have also played into the hands of the regime, especially given that their propaganda has said that these protests were largely concocted by the Americans (the protestors countered that Ahmedinejad's regime was basically a Russian puppet).  State TV played footage on loop suggesting that Bush, McCain, Obama and Soros were behind it all.

If you want to support movements like that then quietly funnel money their way.  Condemn existing regimes.  But I think it's mostly a mistake to get too close to protest/revolutionary movements because they'll look like puppets and will be easier to dismiss.  That could have changed now that Obama's in office - I imagine Bush saying 'we support your struggle' was hemlock to most movements - but I don't think it's changed that much.

Well Shelf, your assessment sounds very optimistic to me, to say the least.

Is it?  I thought it was mostly factual.

I don't know what'll happen.  I think the Russians have other interests in the region and we don't know how they'll behave.  My sense is that the EU-3 have had their hand strengthened in negotiations and are now far more willing to consider sanctions.  But this is the problem with asking for an assessment of diplomacy.  The real answer is we don't know.  I've no idea what the Quai d'Orsay or the Kremlin are thinking and if it's had an effect.

So all I can do is, from what I know about what the US has done, judge how well I think they've played it.  So far I think it's been very impressive.

On the Great Satan side of the debate you have the unproven (to my mind) assumption that the people (as opposed to the state) of Iran buy into it, and think that being on the same side as the US automatically delegitimizes a cause.

Given that a great deal of Swedes believe this, why would the people of a state with constant anti-American propaganda, which has suffered nearly thirty years of American backed tyranny and whose worst enemy was backed by the Americans, why would they not dislike the US?  I mean the leadership of the revolt movement was certainly not made up of pro-Americans.

[Sheilbh]

Well, I agree that it puts the onus on the Iranians, but since I don't think they give a shit about that, I don't see the point.

It's aimed at the rest of the world, not the Iranians.

[HisMajestyBOB]

So far I've been very impressed with Obama's handling of Iran.

Why?

The Russians have, interestingly, said that sanctions are now possibly 'inevitable' and, more importantly, they've put effectively an indefinite hold on shipping uranium for that nuclear plant they're building.  I believe they were meant to deliver six months ago and they've now said there's a problem which will require them to delay that by at least nine months.  Though to be fair they signed on to build that power plant in the early nineties so this might not be deliberate policy, it could well be a series of fuck-ups.

Sorta like how the PRC supported the latest UN sanctions against North Korea, then turned around sent Hu Jintao to Pyongyang, promising fresh new shipments of supplies and resources which are now being delivered?

Don't underestimate Russia and China's love of supporting regimes like Iran's.