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Why Dmitry Medvedev will fail

Started by jimmy olsen, September 29, 2009, 08:21:09 PM

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jimmy olsen

I figure this article will please several notable posters on this board.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/216061
QuoteRussia's Tragic Hero

Why Dmitry Medvedev will fail.
By Owen Matthews | NEWSWEEK
Published Sep 25, 2009


It's hard to see Dmitry Medvedev as a tragic figure. Russia's president is, at least in theory, one of the world's most powerful men. His demeanor is cheerful; his speeches are refreshingly liberal and increasingly bold in criticizing the new Russian state. But his vision will go nowhere as long as his predecessor, Vladimir Putin, remains the real power in the land.

Consider Medvedev's latest proposals. Published earlier this month on the president's personal blog, the manifesto calls for overhauling Russia's "terrible" and "dysfunctional" economy by weaning it away from its dependence on energy and metals. Medvedev wants to close down unproductive single-industry towns that churn out products no one wants, to create a new tech sector and to invest more in education, to cut bureaucracy, and to encourage Russians to start small businesses, which have been crushed by bribe-taking and regulation. "We spent the 1990s trying to survive, then we spent much of the last decade achieving stability," Medvedev told a foreign audience recently. "Now we have to dismantle the legacy of our 'beloved' Soviet past."

It all sounds good. But it was all undermined by the fact that, just one day before the blog post appeared, Putin strongly hinted that he intends to return to the presidency at the next election in 2012. "[Medvedev and I] will make that decision together," Putin said. "We are of one blood." In the coded language of modern Russian politics, the message—that Medvedev is little more than a temporary stand-in—was loud and clear.

Putin's return will undermine all of Medvedev's radical proposals, from his economic ideas to his earlier plan to reform Russia's rotten justice and law-enforcement systems. That's because many of Russia's problems today are of Putin's own making. During his two terms in office, Russia's bureaucracy doubled in size, while according to Transparency International, the size of the "bribe economy" increased 10-fold. The bureaucracy became the business elite as the state—from the Kremlin to provincial governors and even local policemen—swallowed up private businesses.

Today business rivals regularly use state power to put opponents in jail. They conjure up crippling tax raids and steal whole businesses with the connivance of local authorities. This makes it almost impossible for Russian businesses to compete internationally or attract outside investment, since there's no guarantee that your business won't be stolen. The only way to survive is to be big and connected—creating bloated, inefficient business empires.

Medvedev alone would not fix all these problems. He may have radical ideas, but he is a consummate insider, chosen by Putin precisely because he posed no threat to Putin's eventual return. Still, Medvedev is more than a front for Putin; even many critics consider his prescription for Russia's ills spot on. What he lacks is clout. His anti-corruption campaign has not led to the sacking of even one high-profile Putin appointee. His demand that bureaucrats make their incomes and assets public produced laughably understated declarations, which only reinforced the idea that Medvedev lacks the power to take on the old guard.

Russia's economy is like a leaky bucket—it seems full because of the amount of free money gushing in, mostly from oil and gas. In fact, Russia falls far behind the rest of the developed world on almost every competitiveness, productivity, and production index. At the beginning of Putin's rule in 2000, Russia stood 55th on the World Economic Forum's index of global competitiveness; by 2009, after a decade of stability and prosperity and vast oil windfalls, it had dropped to 63rd. On legal protection for investors and property rights, Russia under Putin slipped 20 places, to 116th. Small wonder that while Europe and the U.S. are now starting to post signs of GDP growth, Russia has had to revise its forecasts down, and it now expects GDP to fall 8.5 percent this year.

Given all these trends, Medvedev has become an increasingly compelling figure, both for the sharpness of his critique and for the hopelessness of his cause.

© 2009
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

Razgovory

I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

DGuller

Quote from: Razgovory on September 29, 2009, 08:37:01 PM
Man, Putin really is creepy.
Well, he is a Chekist.  Those guys were trained to be highly effective psychopaths.

Queequeg

I'm not totally sure how popular Putin will be when he comes back.  He may (may) be smart enough to keep Medvedev around, even support some of his reforms.  To be honest, I don't think Medvedev would be allowed to say these things if Putin didn't agree with some of the basics. 

Or maybe he just figures it was useful to put a semi-Liberal in the seat, or maybe he knew that Medvedev was too week to stop him coming back.

I don't know.

He's an enigma even by Russia's high standards. 
Quote from: PDH on April 25, 2009, 05:58:55 PM
"Dysthymia?  Did they get some student from the University of Chicago with a hard-on for ancient Bactrian cities to name this?  I feel cheated."

Caliga

Medvedev is cute.  He's like a little miniature person.  Action Figure President.
0 Ed Anger Disapproval Points

Admiral Yi

Quote from: Caliga on September 29, 2009, 09:30:58 PM
Medvedev is cute.  He's like a little miniature person.  Action Figure President.
He would make a good bobble-head. :)

Josephus

Quote from: DGuller on September 29, 2009, 08:42:05 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 29, 2009, 08:37:01 PM
Man, Putin really is creepy.
Well, he is a Chekist.  Those guys were trained to be highly effective psychopaths.

I thought he was Slovakist not Chekist.

<_< get it?
Civis Romanus Sum<br /><br />"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world." Jack Layton 1950-2011

Jaron

I'd advise you Europeans not to post anything negative that could be used against you once Russia subjugates your weak,anti-American nations.
Winner of THE grumbler point.

garbon

"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

Josephus

Ask people who the president of Russia is, and the majority would say "Putin." Putin has a great scam going.
Civis Romanus Sum<br /><br />"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world." Jack Layton 1950-2011

Warspite

If Putin tries to unseat Medvedev he will unleash powerful forces he cannot comprehend.
" SIR – I must commend you on some of your recent obituaries. I was delighted to read of the deaths of Foday Sankoh (August 9th), and Uday and Qusay Hussein (July 26th). Do you take requests? "

OVO JE SRBIJA
BUDALO, OVO JE POSTA

Agelastus

Quote from: Warspite on September 30, 2009, 08:37:11 AM
If Putin tries to unseat Medvedev he will unleash powerful forces he cannot comprehend.

:cthulu:
"Come grow old with me
The Best is yet to be
The last of life for which the first was made."

Viking

I think the big question has to be, "Will Medvedev get to be President again after Putin has completed his next two terms?"
First Maxim - "There are only two amounts, too few and enough."
First Corollary - "You cannot have too many soldiers, only too few supplies."
Second Maxim - "Be willing to exchange a bad idea for a good one."
Second Corollary - "You can only be wrong or agree with me."

A terrorist which starts a slaughter quoting Locke, Burke and Mill has completely missed the point.
The fact remains that the only person or group to applaud the Norway massacre are random Islamists.

HisMajestyBOB

Quote from: Viking on September 30, 2009, 08:53:46 AM
I think the big question has to be, "Will Medvedev get to be President again after Putin has completed his next two terms?"

Nah, before Putin takes office Medvedev will thoughtfully scrap that two term limit.
Three lovely Prada points for HoI2 help

Viking

Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on September 30, 2009, 09:01:35 AM
Quote from: Viking on September 30, 2009, 08:53:46 AM
I think the big question has to be, "Will Medvedev get to be President again after Putin has completed his next two terms?"

Nah, before Putin takes office Medvedev will thoughtfully scrap that two term limit.

Not exactly protecting his own intrests?
First Maxim - "There are only two amounts, too few and enough."
First Corollary - "You cannot have too many soldiers, only too few supplies."
Second Maxim - "Be willing to exchange a bad idea for a good one."
Second Corollary - "You can only be wrong or agree with me."

A terrorist which starts a slaughter quoting Locke, Burke and Mill has completely missed the point.
The fact remains that the only person or group to applaud the Norway massacre are random Islamists.