Stalin's bid for a new world order (BBC on the Nazi-Soviet Pact)

[Alatriste]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8218887.stm

In the fourth of a series of articles marking the outbreak of World War II 70 years ago, the BBC Russian Service's Artyom Krechetnikov assesses Soviet leader Joseph Stalin's motivations behind the 1939 Soviet-Nazi pact.

Soviet government documents released since the USSR's collapse give us a clear idea of what drove Stalin's thinking in concluding the non-aggression treaty - the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact - with Nazi Germany.

On 19 August 1939, just days before the agreement was signed in Moscow, in a speech to a hastily-convened session of the Politburo, Stalin said the "question of war and peace is entering a decisive phase".

He predicted that the outcome would depend entirely on whichever strategic position the USSR decided to adopt.

Should the Soviet Union form an alliance with France and Britain, he opined, Germany would be forced to abandon its territorial demands on Poland.

This, Stalin suggested, would avoid the threat of imminent war, but it would make "the subsequent development of events dangerous for the Soviet Union".

Should the USSR sign a treaty with Germany, Stalin suggested, Berlin would "undoubtedly attack Poland, leading to a war with the inevitable involvement of France and England".

Looking ahead, Stalin suggested that "under these circumstances, we, finding ourselves in a beneficial situation, can simply await our turn [to extract maximum advantage]".

What is clear is that Stalin not only appeared unconcerned about the prospect of an attack from Nazi Germany, he actually considered such an attack impossible.

"Our aim is to ensure Germany can continue to fight for as long as possible, in order to exhaust and ruin England and France," he said. "They must not be in a condition to rout Germany.

"Our position is thus clear… remaining neutral, we aid Germany economically, with raw materials and foodstuffs. It is important for us that the war continues as long as possible, in order that both sides exhaust their forces."

Criticism

Many western historians believe that the Anglo-French security guarantees given to Poland effectively turned Stalin into the arbiter of Europe.

On 3 May 1939, Stalin replaced the pro-Western, Jewish Foreign Minister Litvinov, with Vyacheslav Molotov. It was a strong signal that he wanted to improve relations with the Nazis.

Official Russian history asserts that Stalin believed that Germany, even if it were to emerge from war as a victor, would be so exhausted that it would be unable to wage war with the USSR for at least a decade.

The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact drew unequivocal criticism from Communists outside the USSR.

Stalin invited the head of the Comintern, the international Communist organisation founded in Moscow, to explain his thinking.

"Hitler does not understand or want this, but he is undermining the capitalist system," he said. "What we can do is manoeuvre around the two sides, push one of the sides to attack the other."

In a written note to foreign Communist parties, Stalin asserted: "The salvation of English-French imperialism would be a violation of Communist principles. These principles in no way exclude a temporary agreement with our common enemy, Fascism."

So was there an alternative?

In the spring and summer of 1939, Stalin could have forged an alliance with Western democracies. Such a move may have prevented a world war, with Europe's borders remaining unchanged.

The problem with this, for Stalin, was that it would have delayed what he viewed as the "final global victory of Communism" for an indeterminable period.

Stalin's actions and deeds made it clear that he could not conceive a protracted period of "peaceful co-existence", the notion that came to determine the Soviet Union's policy towards the capitalist world after Stalin's death.

Stalin and Hitler were united by their desire to destroy the old world order, and to rebuild it as they wanted.

Arguably, this made Soviet-Nazi friendship as inevitable as was its rapid, explosive end.

Some comments:

First of all, this throws some doubts on the usual interpretation of Soviet foreign policy 1933-39. If Stalin didn't fear Germany and didn't consider beneficial in the long run an alliance with France and Britain, why did he support the Popular Fronts? Why did he join the League of Nations, help the Spanish Republic and the Guomindang in China, and support the Czechs?

Of course, it would have taken a man with balls of stainless steel - and no wish to live - to have asked these questions to comrade Stalin. Probably the best explanation is that he changed his mind in late 1938 or the first months of 1939 and decided France and Britain would never go to war against Germany allied with the USSR... that they wanted to use him to contain German ambitions in the West, but wouldn't lift a finger if Hitler attacked Russia.

And his position is quite clear here

"Hitler does not understand or want this, but he is undermining the capitalist system," he said. "What we can do is manoeuvre around the two sides, push one of the sides to attack the other."

Well, if France and Britain wouldn't attack Germany, not even with Soviet help, then perhaps Germany would be more suitably aggressive!

In addition, Polish stubborn refusal to ally with the USSR probably made him suspect that they were willing to reach a deal with Hitler and ally with Germany instead. And the  chunk of Czech territory Poland had grabbed after Munich pushed in the same direction.

Other comments:

- Stalin considered the Franco-British alliance stronger than Germany, and believed the USSR would have to help Hitler "with raw materials and foodstuffs" in order to reach the desired stalemate. In other words, the USSR would nullify the blockade that had worked so well in the Great War, allowing Germany to fight indefinitely... it would be 1916 forever, or for so long as Stalin wished.

This, however, seems to me an egregious mistake

Many western historians believe that the Anglo-French security guarantees given to Poland effectively turned Stalin into the arbiter of Europe.

In my opinion it wasn't the policy of guarantees what turned Stalin into the arbiter of Europe. That was merely the result of German policy in 1938 and 1939. With or without the guarantees once Hitler committed himself and started acting in an openly aggressive way against his neighbours the USSR unavoidably became the key of the strategic situation, because only a Triple Alliance could conceivably dissuade him; quite obviously, France and Britain didn't suffice.

[Viking]

Martinus approves of this thread.

[Valmy]

I often think it was a good thing France was defeated so quickly.  France and Britain were unlikely to defeat the Nazis anyway and in the event it just made Stalin's stupid plan appear even more stupid and screwed the Soviets even more.

[derspiess]

Hmm, well that *would* help explain the zeal with which Stalin ordered local communists in western Europe to sabotage Allied war effort in 1939 & 1940.

[Valmy]

Hmm, well that *would* help explain the zeal with which Stalin ordered local communists in western Europe to sabotage Allied war effort in 1939 & 1940.

Yeah that was pretty shitty.  Of course the French Communists had no trouble going on strike against the Imperialist War...and then later on claimed they had opposed the Nazis all along while all the collaborators were Capitalists.

[derspiess]

I often think it was a good thing France was defeated so quickly. 

You make this dude cry:

[Valmy]

You make this dude cry:

Better the Germans and the Soviets smash the shit out of each other than the Germans and the Western Allies.

[Josephus]

I often think it was a good thing France was defeated so quickly. 

You make this dude cry:

That's such an iconic photo. I wonder if that "dude" was thinking..."Fuck...60 years from now, my pic will be all over the Internet.....waaaaaah"

[The Brain]

"At least I'm not star wars kid."

[Siege]

What is that guy crying for?

[Valmy]

What is that guy crying for?

The Nazis just defeated France and are going to put all his Jew friends to death.

Actually we are not really sure who that guy is and where and when that picture was taken but it is usually associated with the Fall of France in 1940.

[derspiess]

What is that guy crying for?

Germans came & took his country. 

[Valmy]

Germans came & took his country. 

A common affliction at the time.

[derspiess]

Actually we are not really sure who that guy is and where and when that picture was taken but it is usually associated with the Fall of France in 1940.

More specifically, you tend to see it with newsreel footage of the Wehrmacht parading through Paris.  One thing I always wondered though was why show up & watch the damned thing if it upsets you so much. 

[Siege]

But the woman behind him is applauding.