Quick Quagmire Poll (Iran, Mar 26 - 31)

[Syt]

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/21/politics/us-military-missile-stockpile

The US military has significantly depleted its stockpile of key missiles during the war with Iran and created a "near-term risk" of running out of ammunition in a future conflict should one arise in the next few years, according to experts and three people familiar with recent internal Defense Department stockpile assessments.

Over the last seven weeks of war, the US military has expended at least 45% of its stockpile of Precision Strike Missiles; at least half of its inventory of THAAD missiles, which are designed to intercept ballistic missiles; and nearly 50% of its stockpile of Patriot air defense interceptor missiles, according to a new analysis conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Those numbers closely align with classified Pentagon data about US stockpiles, according to the sources familiar with the assessment.

Earlier this year the Pentagon signed a series of contracts that would help expand missile production, but the delivery timeline to replace these systems is three to five years even with the increased capacity, the CSIS experts and the sources said.

In the short term, the US likely maintains enough bombs and missiles to continue combat operations against Iran, in any scenario, should the shaky ceasefire fail to hold. But the number of critical munitions remaining in US stockpiles is no longer sufficient to confront a near-peer adversary, like China, and it will likely take years before the inventory of those weapons returns to pre-war levels, the CSIS analysis concludes.

"The high munitions expenditures have created a window of increased vulnerability in the western Pacific," Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps Colonel and one of the authors of the CSIS report, told CNN. "It will take one to four years to replenish these inventories and several years after that to expand them to where they need to be."

In a statement to CNN, chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said that the military "has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President's choosing."

"Since President Trump took office, we have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests," he said.

The US military has also expended approximately 30% of its Tomahawk missile stockpile; more than 20% of its stockpile of long-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles; and approximately 20% of its SM-3 and SM-6 missiles, according to the analysis and the sources. It would take around four to five years to replace those systems.

The missile math tracking the depleted stockpile stands in stark contrast to President Donald Trump's recent claim that that the US is not running short of any weaponry – even as he requested additional funding for missiles due to the Iran war's impact on existing stockpiles.

"We're asking for a lot of reasons, beyond even what we're talking about in Iran," Trump said last month, referring to the request for additional Pentagon funding. "Munitions in particular, at the high end we have a lot, but we're preserving it."

"It's a small price to pay to make sure that we stay tippy top," he added.

The Trump administration's recent agreements with private companies should boost production, but near-term deliveries of these key munitions are relatively low because of small orders in the past, the CSIS report notes.

Before the war began, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and other military leaders warned Trump that a protracted military campaign could impact US weapons stockpiles – particularly those that support Israel and Ukraine, CNN previously reported.

And since the start of the conflict, Democrats on Capitol Hill have voiced unease about the amount of munitions used and what it could mean for US defense in the Middle East and beyond.

"The Iranians do have the ability to make a lot of Shahed drones, ballistic missiles, medium range, short range and they've got a huge stockpile," Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly said last month. "So at some point ... this becomes a math problem and how can we resupply air defense munitions. Where are they going to come from?"

[The Minsky Moment]

The captain is insane and the helmsman is pass out drunk.  Who can predict what course the ship will follow?

[crazy canuck]

It's looking like I am wrong but I still hold on the belief that the USA is going to Vietnam this thing.

Why do you hold to that belief?

Peter Hegseth, really. He wants so much to prove that the Christian White man is still a great warrior that invading brown seems logical. There's also the chance to kickstart the 2nd coming that he probably likes.

I see, that makes sense.  And I would be more worried if he had any actual authority.

[Zanza]

I think that Western Pacific vulnerability is much worse than stated. China can probably outproduce the rest of the world in drones or any other low to mid complexity weapon system. Their supply chains and industrial base are super efficient.

[crazy canuck]

Agreed, except I am not sure the vulnerability is only in that region.  The Americans are not just in decline, they are in a free fall.  The void will be filled by something else.  Will the void be filled by China, or Europe and friends?  I am hoping for the latter, but that is not a sure thing.

[The Minsky Moment]

I am a Europe bull relatively speaking, but there is no hope for Europe projecting meaningful power into the Pacific.

[crazy canuck]

I am a Europe bull relatively speaking, but there is no hope for Europe projecting meaningful power into the Pacific.

It doesn't need to. That is an American concern.  I am speaking about the larger void the Americans are leaving in the world - one the Europeans can fill.

[Valmy]

I am a Europe bull relatively speaking, but there is no hope for Europe projecting meaningful power into the Pacific.

It doesn't need to. That is an American concern.  I am speaking about the larger void the Americans are leaving in the world - one the Europeans can fill.

Well France needs to. Or give up its Pacific territories.

[crazy canuck]

I am a Europe bull relatively speaking, but there is no hope for Europe projecting meaningful power into the Pacific.

It doesn't need to. That is an American concern.  I am speaking about the larger void the Americans are leaving in the world - one the Europeans can fill.

Well France needs to. Or give up its Pacific territories.

Why is that the choice?  France does not now meaningfully project any power there, and yet still has those territories.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I am a Europe bull relatively speaking, but there is no hope for Europe projecting meaningful power into the Pacific.

I'm still not convinced the Europeans will be able to project sufficient power into Europe any time soon

[The Brain]

I am a Europe bull relatively speaking, but there is no hope for Europe projecting meaningful power into the Pacific.

It doesn't need to. That is an American concern.  I am speaking about the larger void the Americans are leaving in the world - one the Europeans can fill.

Well France needs to. Or give up its Pacific territories.

Why is that the choice?  France does not now meaningfully project any power there, and yet still has those territories.

The US will attack them.

[crazy canuck]

Fair point

[mongers]

CSIS..snip..

I already posted that three weeks ago in the Iran thread:

US missile stockpiles seriously depleted due to Iran war
The Washington DC-based The Hill news platform reports that the US military has exhausted nearly half of its Patriot air defence interceptor stockpile and heavily expended six other key missile categories during its war on Iran.

According to a new analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the scale of "Operation Epic Fury" air and missile campaign has created significant gaps in American munitions reserves, The Hill report said.

The CSIS report, released on Tuesday, details the following depletion levels:

Patriot Missiles: Almost 50 percent of the total stockpile depleted.
THAAD Interceptors: More than half of the inventory expended.
Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs): Over 45 percent of the stockpile used.

A UK intelligence assessment report, seen by the Mirror, summarises the remaining Iran threat by writing:

"US intelligence assessments have suggested that Iran likely still has access to around 70 percent of its pre-conflict ballistic missile stockpiles, and around 60 percent of its missile launchers.

"It also still retains around 40% of its drone arsenal.

 

[Tonitrus]

I think that Western Pacific vulnerability is much worse than stated. China can probably outproduce the rest of the world in drones or any other low to mid complexity weapon system. Their supply chains and industrial base are super efficient.

Indeed.  Iran wasn't much of a drone threat to US aircraft carries, but you can bet your ass that the PRC would be.  And even if Taiwan were to develop a substantial drone industry, I expect China could smash it rather quickly.

And it would be nigh on impossible for us to impact the PRC industrial base short of nuclear weapons.