Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Also significant effects on energy transition from Iran and Hormuz.

The traditional markets for LNG are Asia - Japan, South-East Asia, Pakistan and Bangladesh especially. They already suffered a huge demand shock in 2022 when the European whale entered that market in its need to get away from Russian gas. With this new supply shock basically poor countries are totally priced out by Japan and Europe.

And as with so much else on energy transition, it's Janus faced. On the one hand countries accelerating the push to renewables (for example a Vietnamese LNG power plant project asking government permission to switch to renewables and batteries given costs). On the other, gas is a cleaner base power (this is how the UK has cut its emissions more sharply than any other G7 country) but is now less reliable and very expensive, so running in parallel with the accelerating adoption of renewables is a turn back to coal (a bit like Germany after Fukushima). Thailand is pivoting from building new gas plants to new renewables and coal (the China model). Italy has pushed back its phase out of coal and I wouldn't be surprised if other European countries followed (relatedly Denmark has announced they will continue allowing new oil and gas exploration - I can't help but wonder if there's some push in Europe at some point to re-evaluate the fracking bans).

As an aside I'd add that expensive gas is also very important industrially. So tis shock is massively accelerating the collapse of the UK - and other European countries' - chemicals industry, our last CO2 and salt manufacturers are shutting down which are key inputs into lots of things. Energy and resource intensive - sure there'll be no possible negative consequences from losing our domestic manufacturing capacity (I'd add particular insanity around the UK policy which is to not allow any new exploration etc which has been pointed out recently by Martin Wolf and he FT leader page - where we're importing gas from the exact same wells we are not exploring or from less green sources.) Less parochially, more importantly (via Adam Tooze), probably the most important map in the world right now on the impact the gas shock is having on fertiliser production:

[Syt]

https://apnews.com/article/zeldin-epa-heartland-climate-change-endangerment-e5b831bb200da83adbaa60a8d50f27f5

Zeldin tells climate skeptics to 'celebrate vindication' after repeal of baseline climate rule

WASHINGTON (AP) — The head of the Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday defended his decision to repeal the legal determination that serves as the basis for federal rules to slow climate change, telling a gathering of climate change skeptics that they should "celebrate vindication."

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin made the remarks in the keynote address at a conference hosted by the Heartland Institute, a conservative think tank that rejects mainstream climate science and what it calls "climate alarmism." Zeldin told the gathering that repeal of the 2009 "endangerment finding" reversed decades of unthinking adherence to liberal politicians and environmental groups about the dangers of climate change.

"Today is a day to celebrate. It is a day to celebrate vindication,″ said Zeldin, a former Republican congressman from New York who is widely believed to be under consideration for a possible promotion to attorney general, following Pam Bondi's forced departure last week.

The EPA earlier this year revoked the endangerment finding, a scientific conclusion that for 16 years was the central basis for regulating planet-warming emissions from power plants, vehicles and other sources. The Trump administration argued the finding hurts industry and the economy and claimed the Obama and Biden administrations twisted science to determine that greenhouse gases are a public health risk.

Zeldin's prominent appearance at a conference hosted by a group deeply skeptical of the established science around climate change reflected the vast reversal that President Donald Trump's administration has carried out of traditional policies meant to protect the environment. The EPA has rolled back dozens of air and water protections and has said it does not have legal authority to regulate climate change.

"You were right there on the front lines against there being an endangerment finding in 2009," Zeldin told the Heartland conference.

Environmentalists denounced Zeldin's appearance before the conservative group, accusing him of "rallying climate deniers" at a time when climate change is creating greater risks of extreme weather, including stronger hurricanes, more dangerous floods and more intense wildfires.

Zeldin's speech "promotes disinformation" and amounts to doing the bidding of Heartland's secretive donors, said Joe Bonfiglio, an executive with the Environmental Defense Fund.

"The Heartland Institute is not a serious scientific organization. It's a disinformation factory," Bonfiglio said. "Having the EPA administrator serve as their opening act isn't just embarrassing — it's a signal of how completely the Trump administration has abandoned its obligation to protect the public from pollution."

An EPA spokeswoman brushed off the criticism, saying "the era of EPA as a vehicle for radical ideology is over."

Zeldin speaks before a "wide variety of ideologically different groups and individuals to promote the agenda of the Trump EPA," spokesman Carolyn Holran said.

Zeldin has returned the agency's focus to fulfill its statutory obligations to protect human health and the environment, "backed by gold standard science, not doomsday models designed to scare the public into compliance," she said in an email.

Heartland Institute President James Taylor hailed Zeldin's speech and called Zeldin "the greatest EPA administrator ever."

The 2009 endangerment finding determined that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases threaten public health and welfare. The Obama-era finding is the legal underpinning of nearly all climate regulations under the Clean Air Act for motor vehicles, power plants and other pollution sources that are heating the planet.

The repeal eliminates all greenhouse gas emissions standards for cars and trucks and could unleash a broader undoing of climate regulations on stationary sources such as power plants and oil and gas facilities, experts say. Legal challenges have been filed by nearly two dozen states, along with public health and environmental groups.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

What else to expect from theocracies

[Valmy]

How does cancelling a rule vindicate climate skepticism? One would think proof of their position would vindicate their position, not some bureaucratic nonsense.

[crazy canuck]

How does cancelling a rule vindicate climate skepticism? One would think proof of their position would vindicate their position, not some bureaucratic nonsense.

everyone knows that if you ignore a problem like climate change, it just goes away. You really need to keep up or risk being deported for unamerican thinking.