Are we in the opening scenes of a post-apocalyptic movie?

[Razgovory]

I get the feeling that a great deal of production in east and south asia is a function of large populations.  They had a very productive food system that led to a larger population, the larger population produced more of an item because it was simply larger, but also consumed the items.

There is something obviously unbalanced here.  If these people were the economic powerhouses of their day, why weren't they sailing to Europe for trade rather than the other way around?

[HVC]

They didn't care about a heathen middleman squeezing the middle, europe did. There had been east west trade for millennia, but it wasn't until some 40 years after the fall of Byzantium did Portugal pass the cape of good hope (and another decade or so to actually make it to India)

[Sheilbh]

For heathen read Italian Venice funded a Mamluk navy (and built armaments for it transported over Egypt) to take on the Portuguese in the Indian Ocean - which very nearly worked.

Also we really really should t discount the religious motivation and imaginary world of those European states. Prester John and outflanking the world of Islam to take Jerusalem were significant motivations in the early days. I think our secular age and mind looks for material reasons and views anyone talking about Prester John as either cynical or a credulous fool. Which I think is wrong and misses important parts of the picture.

[HVC]

For heathen read Italian Venice funded a Mamluk navy (and built armaments for it transported over Egypt) to take on the Portuguese in the Indian Ocean - which very nearly worked.

Also we really really should t discount the religious motivation and imaginary world of those European states. Prester John and outflanking the world of Islam to take Jerusalem were significant motivations in the early days. I think our secular age and mind looks for material reasons and views anyone talking about Prester John as either cynical or a credulous fool. Which I think is wrong and misses important parts of the picture.

Italians have always been treacherous bastards... second only perhaps to the French

[The Minsky Moment]

There is something obviously unbalanced here.  If these people were the economic powerhouses of their day, why weren't they sailing to Europe for trade rather than the other way around?

They didn't need anything Europe have to offer, which is why when trade occurred, China mostly took in silver by default. Europe definitely "felt" that as the chronic specie drain fueled the regular rounds of currency devaluations that plagued early modern Europe as well as encouraging the American colonial ventures. The dynamic continued well into the 19th century, being a key motivator underlying the Opium Wars.

[Josquius]

I get the feeling that a great deal of production in east and south asia is a function of large populations.  They had a very productive food system that led to a larger population, the larger population produced more of an item because it was simply larger, but also consumed the items.

This is basically how civilisation works.

[The Minsky Moment]

I get the feeling that a great deal of production in east and south asia is a function of large populations.  They had a very productive food system that led to a larger population, the larger population produced more of an item because it was simply larger, but also consumed the items.

They had a very productive food system because they had what was for the time world class infrastructure and relatively stable social and political systems. 

[PJL]

There is something obviously unbalanced here.  If these people were the economic powerhouses of their day, why weren't they sailing to Europe for trade rather than the other way around?

They didn't need anything Europe have to offer, which is why when trade occurred, China mostly took in silver by default. Europe definitely "felt" that as the chronic specie drain fueled the regular rounds of currency devaluations that plagued early modern Europe as well as encouraging the American colonial ventures. The dynamic continued well into the 19th century, being a key motivator underlying the Opium Wars.

Hmmm, sounds familiar. China exports loads of stuff but imports little, and acquires lots of currency in the meantime, causing frictions with the Europeans and others.

[grumbler]

Hmmm, sounds familiar. China exports loads of stuff but imports little, and acquires lots of currency in the meantime, causing frictions with the Europeans and others.

The Spanish silver gained from the New World ruined the Chinese economy as well, since abundant silver destroyed the value of the accumulated silver China had from previous trade and destroyed the value of paper currency.  When the Little Ice Age disrupted those silver supplies, the Ming dynasty collapsed because it couldn't adjust to the new inflated price of silver (e.g. farmers could no longer pay taxes).

[HVC]

So what you're saying is that he coming global warming crisis will be the saviour of the western world? huzzah!

[Valmy]

Too bad we can't ignore the US impact on climate change.

I saw an article the that claimed that more than 90% of the US' new energy capacity in 2025 was renewable, in spite of Trump's efforts.

To be able to understand whether that statistic is meaningful, I would need to know how much new energy was generated in proportion to the existing energy.

The vast adoption of wind and solar and batteries is very real. Building those things just has a much lower entry cost than building a giant thermal plant.

The problem is that the current energy needs of the grid is exploding with all of these data centers. So despite this very impressive adoption the greenhouse gas emissions are probably not going to decrease much, in fact they will increase.

[Razgovory]

I get the feeling that a great deal of production in east and south asia is a function of large populations.  They had a very productive food system that led to a larger population, the larger population produced more of an item because it was simply larger, but also consumed the items.

They had a very productive food system because they had what was for the time world class infrastructure and relatively stable social and political systems. 

They have a very productive food system because of climate and crops.

[Razgovory]

There is something obviously unbalanced here.  If these people were the economic powerhouses of their day, why weren't they sailing to Europe for trade rather than the other way around?

They didn't need anything Europe have to offer, which is why when trade occurred, China mostly took in silver by default. Europe definitely "felt" that as the chronic specie drain fueled the regular rounds of currency devaluations that plagued early modern Europe as well as encouraging the American colonial ventures. The dynamic continued well into the 19th century, being a key motivator underlying the Opium Wars.

Nobody in China thought they could profit by sailing to Europe and seeing what they had for sale?  

[HVC]

There is something obviously unbalanced here.  If these people were the economic powerhouses of their day, why weren't they sailing to Europe for trade rather than the other way around?

They didn't need anything Europe have to offer, which is why when trade occurred, China mostly took in silver by default. Europe definitely "felt" that as the chronic specie drain fueled the regular rounds of currency devaluations that plagued early modern Europe as well as encouraging the American colonial ventures. The dynamic continued well into the 19th century, being a key motivator underlying the Opium Wars.

Nobody in China thought they could profit by sailing to Europe and seeing what they had for sale? 

Why? They had a stable trade network that obvioulsy made them money, what incentive would they have to invest in a fleet and set sail?

[grumbler]

Nobody in China thought they could profit by sailing to Europe and seeing what they had for sale? 

In Confucianist thought, merchants were the lowest rung of society, because Confucius claimed that they produced nothing and just exploited the labor of others.  So merchants had to be careful not to attract the attention of the tax farmers by appearing too wealthy. Most of China's trade was with southeast Asia, where, in fact, many Chinese expatriate communities sprung up to avoid Chinese government oppression.

In China itself there was little in the way of entrepreneurial spirit. Classical Chinese culture was very much (officially) opposed to desiring too much in the way of material goods.