Iran War

[Jacob]

Aviation fuel is running short. Airline cancellations are going to increase, and especially flights to and from Europe.

RIP World Cup?

Fucking great. I have a family vacation planned mid-May.

[crazy canuck]

Aviation fuel is running short. Airline cancellations are going to increase, and especially flights to and from Europe.

RIP World Cup?

Fucking great. I have a family vacation planned mid-May.

Yep, our trip in June is also looking less likely.

Apparently, the refinery in Qatar is the source of much of Europe's aviation fuel, and that refinery was damaged so even if tanker traffic in the straight  returns to normal tomorrow, that still isn't going to solve the aviation fuel shortage.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I'd be very interested in an overview of American troop accumulation and movement in the region.

Last time it was a topic, some airborne were being repositioned into theatre and some MEF troops were en route. Presumably they're in place now.

Based on what we know, has the possible scale of potential American or Israeli ground operations changed?

Tripoli and her amphibious group are operating in the Arabian Sea now.  That group's forces wouldn't even be enough to secure a beachhead in mainland Iran, though.  I suspect it's there mainly to support the blockade.  Otherwise, I haven't read anything about any sort of significant ground forces being in place.  Attacking anything on the ground that isn't an isolated island or a SpecOps raid would be suicidal with the troop numbers in-theater.

[crazy canuck]

I'd be very interested in an overview of American troop accumulation and movement in the region.

Last time it was a topic, some airborne were being repositioned into theatre and some MEF troops were en route. Presumably they're in place now.

Based on what we know, has the possible scale of potential American or Israeli ground operations changed?

Tripoli and her amphibious group are operating in the Arabian Sea now.  That group's forces wouldn't even be enough to secure a beachhead in mainland Iran, though.  I suspect it's there mainly to support the blockade.  Otherwise, I haven't read anything about any sort of significant ground forces being in place.  Attacking anything on the ground that isn't an isolated island or a SpecOps raid would be suicidal with the troop numbers in-theater.

Yeah, there haven't been any new deployment and the troops that were deployed are token at best.  I really wish Sheilbh hadn't posted Russian  suggest suggesting that there was a buildup of troops

When are people going to learn that Russia and the Trumpists are acting in coordination.  Just fucking ridiculous to see otherwise intelligent people falling into this cesspool of misinformation.

[Zanza]

Aviation fuel is running short. Airline cancellations are going to increase, and especially flights to and from Europe.

RIP World Cup?

Europe supposedly has six weeks if jet fuel left. Other world regions less. That will be painful soon.

[grumbler]

Yeah, there haven't been any new deployment and the troops that were deployed are token at best.  I really wish Sheilbh hadn't posted Russian  suggest suggesting that there was a buildup of troops

When are people going to learn that Russia and the Trumpists are acting in coordination.  Just fucking ridiculous to see otherwise intelligent people falling into this cesspool of misinformation.

I completely fail to understand your point. Sheilbh posted about a sourced fact and a third-party's interpretation of that fact. He didn't argue that they were true. Even if you don't like the fact or the interpretation, they exist and it's foolish to pretend that they don't.

[Sheilbh]

Tripoli and her amphibious group are operating in the Arabian Sea now.  That group's forces wouldn't even be enough to secure a beachhead in mainland Iran, though.  I suspect it's there mainly to support the blockade.  Otherwise, I haven't read anything about any sort of significant ground forces being in place.  Attacking anything on the ground that isn't an isolated island or a SpecOps raid would be suicidal with the troop numbers in-theater.

Agree with all of this. I think 2,500 arrived a couple of weeks ago and the Washington Post was reporting an extra 10,000 to be deployed by the end of the month. Equipment continues to be deployed to the region (though also necessary for a blockade or any attempt to break the Iranian blockade) - I think the Atlantic Council have a running tracker on weapons systems etc being moved into the region. It has continued to increase during the.

The other part of course could just be regional reassurance forces for the American allies hosting the bases in the Gulf - of course, as Russia is very well aware regional reassurace can pivot to other operations.

Yeah, there haven't been any new deployment and the troops that were deployed are token at best.  I really wish Sheilbh hadn't posted Russian  suggest suggesting that there was a buildup of troops

When are people going to learn that Russia and the Trumpists are acting in coordination.  Just fucking ridiculous to see otherwise intelligent people falling into this cesspool of misinformation.

I don't quite get the issue?

The Russians have said it and I've posted what an Iranian expert says is the way Tehran is interpreting it - obviously I think you'd be very justified in doubting what Russia's Security Council says or that the interpretation in Tehran is complete (he'll have sources, be reading news and they'll each have their own starting points). And you're fully entitled to doubt Azizi as well - though I've no reason to think what he's saying is not true (from his position).

And with that information obviously there are other interpretations possible. It seems to me that one of the Iranian concerns in even considering ceasefire negotiations was that it would just be used by the US to bring more weapons into the region and hit harder (having previously been bombed by Trump twice during negotiations). I'm not sure that's wrong, but their interpretation may just reflect that existing fear - alternately it could be Russia trying to bolster that faction within Iran. As I say, many other possibilities too. Not sure how that's a cesspool of misinformation.

But out of interest what's the coordination between the US and Russia on Iran? What's their plan?

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, there haven't been any new deployment and the troops that were deployed are token at best.  I really wish Sheilbh hadn't posted Russian  suggest suggesting that there was a buildup of troops

When are people going to learn that Russia and the Trumpists are acting in coordination.  Just fucking ridiculous to see otherwise intelligent people falling into this cesspool of misinformation.

I completely fail to understand your point. Sheilbh posted about a sourced fact and a third-party's interpretation of that fact. He didn't argue that they were true. Even if you don't like the fact or the interpretation, they exist and it's foolish to pretend that they don't.

It's foolish to pretend that anything coming from the Russians should be taken at face value by third parties or anyone else.  This is not the first time Sheilbh has taken misinformation and treated analyzed it as if it were more valid than it is.  It is foolish not to call these things out when them happen.

[Duque de Bragança]

Aviation fuel is running short. Airline cancellations are going to increase, and especially flights to and from Europe.

RIP World Cup?

Fucking great. I have a family vacation planned mid-May.

Great indeed, I have a family trip to Portugal in the last third of May.
As for the World Cup, poetic justice?

[Jacob]

I think the Atlantic Council have a running tracker on weapons systems etc being moved into the region.

Thanks!

They do, though they don't seem to track infantry deployed. Here it is: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/trackers-and-data-visualizations/tracking-us-military-assets-in-the-iran-war/

[The Minsky Moment]

When are people going to learn that Russia and the Trumpists are acting in coordination. 

Trump can't even act in coordination with himself.

They just parrot RT propaganda either because they are being paid off (Witless and the Trump Org) or because they are too dumb to know better (Gabbard etc)

[crazy canuck]

When are people going to learn that Russia and the Trumpists are acting in coordination. 

Trump can't even act in coordination with himself.

They just parrot RT propaganda either because they are being paid off (Witless and the Trump Org) or because they are too dumb to know better (Gabbard etc)

Yes, that is the coordination I was referring to.  It does not imply that the Trumpists are doing the coordinating.

[grumbler]

It's foolish to pretend that anything coming from the Russians should be taken at face value by third parties or anyone else.  This is not the first time Sheilbh has taken misinformation and treated analyzed it as if it were more valid than it is.  It is foolish not to call these things out when them happen.

It is foolish to refuse to look at information because you don't like what it says. No one is taking it at face value, but that doesn't mean that it has zero value. Virtue signalling is always a bad look.

[crazy canuck]

It's foolish to pretend that anything coming from the Russians should be taken at face value by third parties or anyone else.  This is not the first time Sheilbh has taken misinformation and treated analyzed it as if it were more valid than it is.  It is foolish not to call these things out when them happen.

It is foolish to refuse to look at information because you don't like what it says. No one is taking it at face value, but that doesn't mean that it has zero value. Virtue signalling is always a bad look.

You're right.  Baron please open the gates to all the Russian troll bots some can become more enlightened