Iran War

[Tonitrus]

I think the chance of Trump ordering the use of a nuclear weapon is extremely small...he historically has a strong psychological barrier/fear against it.

Given his over-the-top/deranged/unhinged rhetoric so far...if he wanted to use one, why should we not expect he would threaten exactly that?

Also, and possibly an argument against myself, it plays right into the IRGC's hands...I think they would love nothing more than for us to use a nuclear weapon, even a very limited one.

[The Brain]

The US is threatening not just using a nuke, but nuclear annihilation of an entire civilization. There is no other credible US weapon system that can accomplish that in one evening.

[The Minsky Moment]

I think the chance of Trump ordering the use of a nuclear weapon is extremely small...he historically has a strong psychological barrier/fear against it.

He has a fear of confronting other nuclear powers.

But in his first term, he was widely reported as questioning the generals why the US never used its nuclear arsenal.  I don't think he has compunction against using it against a weaker power that can't hit back, except to the degree the generals or other advisors tell him that it risks third party escalation.  And I'm not confident there are enough of those calming voices left.

[Bauer]

I don't think Trump would actually use nukes, but then again I don't think it's a zero chance either which is scary enough.

If he did use them though, what would stop Putin from dropping the on Ukraine right after?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I don't think Trump would actually use nukes, but then again I don't think it's a zero chance either which is scary enough.

If he did use them though, what would stop Putin from dropping the on Ukraine right after?

exactly.

[PRC]

Didn't Trump want to nuke a hurricane in his first term?

[Josephus]

Trump is just talking out of his ass again. He loves the attention. He won't be nuking anyone. Not today. He will continue doing what the Israelis have been doing all day, massive bombing of infrastructure.  Then maybe after a day or two say Iran is finished and take the three points.

I find it ironic that Israel blew up a synagogue by the way

[Tonitrus]

The US is threatening not just using a nuke, but nuclear annihilation of an entire civilization. There is no other credible US weapon system that can accomplish that in one evening.

That is about equally as good an argument for saying that the threat itself is not credible.

But I presume that is what we're hoping for...we'll see.

[Sheilbh]

He has a fear of confronting other nuclear powers.

But in his first term, he was widely reported as questioning the generals why the US never used its nuclear arsenal.  I don't think he has compunction against using it against a weaker power that can't hit back, except to the degree the generals or other advisors tell him that it risks third party escalation.  And I'm not confident there are enough of those calming voices left.

Yeah. I also just worry it might be the way he gets to TACO which I think otherwise still seems difficult to me.

[frunk]

He's caught between his public big strong man persona, his interest in TACOing, the ROTW yelling at him to get something done and his innate cowardice.  I have no idea what he'll do.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

He's caught between his public big strong man persona, his interest in TACOing, the ROTW yelling at him to get something done and his innate cowardice.  I have no idea what he'll do.

ideally get a heart attack or brain aneurysm that takes him out

[Valmy]

He's caught between his public big strong man persona, his interest in TACOing, the ROTW yelling at him to get something done and his innate cowardice.  I have no idea what he'll do.

Yep. If he could TACO he would have already.

Though Pakistan might be tossing him a lifeline. At for awhile.

[Grey Fox]

He has TACOed.

[Valmy]

He has TACOed.

Sort of. It is contingent on Iran opening the straits for two weeks which I think they already said they wouldn't do.

So I don't really know.

[Legbiter]

He has TACOed.

TACO is go.