Iran War?

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Gift link to not-exactly-the-same article, but covering the subject more broadly.

It's quite possible we're through the "things leading to" phase and well into the "by then events were escalating beyond control" phase.

Yes, I agree we have created a major entanglement we will not be able to resolve quickly, and on balance have severely destabilized the region.  I do think there's still a modicum of control, but I don't think this administration will come anywhere near exercising it, so I guess it effectively is beyond control at this point.

The most likely way to make this worse would be for the regime to lash out at "disloyal" NATO members who refuse to be drawn into this shitshow.  I'm not sure how that would manifest, since Trump only seems to know "bombs" and "tariffs".  I still can't fathom the possibility of the former against NATO nations, and the latter is played-out at this point.  I really hope the first part isn't wishful thinking by me, though, since that's a quick way to end up in the "then major hostilities commenced" phase.

[Duque de Bragança]

There are always more plays for a real estate magnate wanting more to sell.

Norway, for instance. Azerbaijan. Kuwait. But most importantly Brazil. His old friend Bolsonaro is suffering during house arrest. Get Brazil, and you have a jackpot. Country divided between Bolsonaristas and the ones who supported Lula. The highest rate of conversions to Evangelical faiths in the world. Also: Hot chicks, but yucky brown colour.

Old US ally? No matter. Who cares anymore.

Both Bolsonaro and Lula don't object much (ahem), if at all, to Putin's war on Ukraine so Putin could lose another ally?  Well, happened to Venezuela, but Venezuela was in a much rougher state than Brazil.
Nah, Cuba and Nicaragua first.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

At least we didn't start it this time.

Maybe this time you'll get to end it.
Complete that redemption arc.

[Norgy]

One million internal refugees in Lebanon. Because, yes, that country really deserved a good battering.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

There are always more plays for a real estate magnate wanting more to sell.

Norway, for instance. Azerbaijan. Kuwait. But most importantly Brazil. His old friend Bolsonaro is suffering during house arrest. Get Brazil, and you have a jackpot. Country divided between Bolsonaristas and the ones who supported Lula. The highest rate of conversions to Evangelical faiths in the world. Also: Hot chicks, but yucky brown colour.

Old US ally? No matter. Who cares anymore.

Both Bolsonaro and Lula don't object much (ahem), if at all, to Putin's war on Ukraine so Putin could lose another ally?  Well, happened to Venezuela, but Venezuela was in a much rougher state than Brazil.
Nah, Cuba and Nicaragua first.

Pretty sure Putin won't mind that much if at the same time he gets to add the scalp of NATO to his belt (after getting the US)

[Duque de Bragança]

That's a much better Yalta deal than Stalin got, for him indeed.

Still, too soon with the current Gulf War.

[Norgy]

There are always more plays for a real estate magnate wanting more to sell.

Norway, for instance. Azerbaijan. Kuwait. But most importantly Brazil. His old friend Bolsonaro is suffering during house arrest. Get Brazil, and you have a jackpot. Country divided between Bolsonaristas and the ones who supported Lula. The highest rate of conversions to Evangelical faiths in the world. Also: Hot chicks, but yucky brown colour.

Old US ally? No matter. Who cares anymore.

Both Bolsonaro and Lula don't object much (ahem), if at all, to Putin's war on Ukraine so Putin could lose another ally?  Well, happened to Venezuela, but Venezuela was in a much rougher state than Brazil.

Bolsonaro mostly complains about Chinese windmills causing global warming, while Lula is an old man who likes football and socialism. I know which one has been better for Brazil. The latter. Neither cares much about a war in Europe unless there is money to be made. If Europe expects Brazil to come out and fight... then we have to wait.

[PJL]

There are always more plays for a real estate magnate wanting more to sell.

Norway, for instance. Azerbaijan. Kuwait. But most importantly Brazil. His old friend Bolsonaro is suffering during house arrest. Get Brazil, and you have a jackpot. Country divided between Bolsonaristas and the ones who supported Lula. The highest rate of conversions to Evangelical faiths in the world. Also: Hot chicks, but yucky brown colour.

Old US ally? No matter. Who cares anymore.

Both Bolsonaro and Lula don't object much (ahem), if at all, to Putin's war on Ukraine so Putin could lose another ally?  Well, happened to Venezuela, but Venezuela was in a much rougher state than Brazil.

Bolsonaro mostly complains about Chinese windmills causing global warming, while Lula is an old man who likes football and socialism. I know which one has been better for Brazil. The latter. Neither cares much about a war in Europe unless there is money to be made. If Europe expects Brazil to come out and fight... then we have to wait.

Maybe if we tell them fascists are overruning the continent, they might come and help, like last time.

[Norgy]

Few are more fascist than Bolsonaro, though.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Maybe if we tell them fascists are overruning the continent, they might come and help, like last time.

They didn't do that until the fascists touched their boats, though.

[The Minsky Moment]

I don't disagree that Trump's decision-making is purely driven by whatever momentarily soothes his malevolent ego and id. However, I'm pretty confident that the coterie around him has a variety of agendas and plans which they attempt to pursue by manipulating Trump's psychology.

I'm thinking of people like Stephen Miller, Bessent, Rubio, and the like.

So yeah, I contend there's an underlying logic to the Trump administration's actions, even if the logic is perfidious or based on ignorance in many cases. Or perhaps more accurately, there are multiple competing logics depending on which way the Trump-vane blows that day.

OK sure.  The grifters around Trump are always looking for how to play to their advantage, whether money or power. But there is no grand plan there.

By logic I mean more than just improvisational grabbing for personal advantage.  Any random band of mammalian creatures can pull that off.

What we are seeing and will see is a process whereby Trump and his people try out various post hoc justifications for their actions, or trial various rationalizations, or suggest some sort of secret plan or future intentions.  And we've already seen that even the "quality" news organizations fall for the trap of reporting these random brain farts seriously, perhaps out of force of habit from the days of reporting normal presidents or out of sheer desperate hope that somewhere in the deep in this sewer of an administration, someone knows something about what they are doing.

But they don't.  We have more than enough evidence to know many times over that no one there has a clue what they are doing.

The "plan" at this point is reactively try a bunch of random crap and hope something works, like a contestant spinning the Wheel of Fortune and hoping.  But even if these guys luck out and land on the vacation to Acapulco, they'd still find a way to screw it up, buying every vowel till there's none left, and still failing to solve the puzzle even with every letter filled in because the fool in charge can't read.

[Norgy]

I read they all got new shoes. That's a fairly low payoff for selling your soul.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I read they all got new shoes. That's a fairly low payoff for selling your soul.

badly fitting at that. but then their souls didn't fit either

[Duque de Bragança]

There are always more plays for a real estate magnate wanting more to sell.

Norway, for instance. Azerbaijan. Kuwait. But most importantly Brazil. His old friend Bolsonaro is suffering during house arrest. Get Brazil, and you have a jackpot. Country divided between Bolsonaristas and the ones who supported Lula. The highest rate of conversions to Evangelical faiths in the world. Also: Hot chicks, but yucky brown colour.

Old US ally? No matter. Who cares anymore.

Both Bolsonaro and Lula don't object much (ahem), if at all, to Putin's war on Ukraine so Putin could lose another ally?  Well, happened to Venezuela, but Venezuela was in a much rougher state than Brazil.

Bolsonaro mostly complains about Chinese windmills causing global warming, while Lula is an old man who likes football and socialism. I know which one has been better for Brazil. The latter. Neither cares much about a war in Europe unless there is money to be made. If Europe expects Brazil to come out and fight... then we have to wait.

Nobody expected them to fight, just not siding with the Kremlin while losing money in the process, cf. ammo that Germany was about to pay to gift to Ukraine.

Also, Lula's socialism is of the extremely corrupt variety, since his second term, so it's not doing a lot of good to Brazil.

Less crazy than Mijairzinho though, give or take an export embargo on musical instruments precious wood.

Both are dependent on Russian fertilisers, anyways. Their respective political clientèles with peasants and magnates, as a matter of fact.

[Tamas]

Stop sanewahsing Trump, guys.

Also, lol, Trump WAS going to bail on the allies once they took over policing the strait:

They should come and they should help us protect it. You could make the case that maybe we shouldn't even be there at all, because we don't need it. We have a lot of oil. We're the number one producer anywhere in the world times two."