Iran War?

[jimmy olsen]

Lifting of the Russian oil sanction until mid April is now official.

This is the most farcical, incompetent war. Not just during my life time, but of the ones I can remember reading about.

No denying the staggering incompetence, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine is worse.

[jimmy olsen]

Although... 

https://bsky.app/profile/rgoodlaw.bsky.social/post/3mgvp3vqwdc2r

"Top Trump officials acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the strait in response to strikes."

[HisMajestyBOB]

Although... 

https://bsky.app/profile/rgoodlaw.bsky.social/post/3mgvp3vqwdc2r

"Top Trump officials acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the strait in response to strikes."

Considering the Iranian government threatened to close the straits after we bombed them last year, you'd have to be a dementia-ridden moron to not expect them to close the straits the next time we bombed then.

So I guess that totally tracks with this President.

[Legbiter]

I've seen enough to know how the this war ends. The regime stays in place, Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Whether the regime survives the aftermath, I'd say 50-50. If it survives, it's a meh outcome, Iranians are still screwed, same as they were before the war. If it falls, a regular military dictatorship without the religious zeal would be an improvement compared to now.  

[crazy canuck]

You place the Trump regime's survival as high as 50/50

[Valmy]

I've seen enough to know how the this war ends. The regime stays in place, Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Whether the regime survives the aftermath, I'd say 50-50. If it survives, it's a meh outcome, Iranians are still screwed, same as they were before the war. If it falls, a regular military dictatorship without the religious zeal would be an improvement compared to now.  

I am not sure why you think the regime falling would lead to some peaceful and orderly transition to a military dictatorship.

[Tonitrus]

If it falls, a regular military dictatorship without the religious zeal would be an improvement compared to now.  

I seriously doubt the military would be able to supplant the IRGC for control.  And though there could be a IRGC "military dictatorship", odds are they'd always have an ayatollah as at least a figurehead.

[Legbiter]

Iranian war propaganda. It's AI slop but done in an anime style. 

https://x.com/A_M_R_M1/status/2032167472753729570

You are an Iranian in Iran, one of the few with a functioning VPN. You see this, how do you feel?

[Zoupa]

Some jihadist group claimed they shot down the refueler in Irak. Drone attack on a French military base in Iraki Kurdistan injured 6 and killed 1 French soldier.

Remember to say thank you, Trump.

[Jacob]

I've seen enough to know how the this war ends. The regime stays in place, Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Whether the regime survives the aftermath, I'd say 50-50. If it survives, it's a meh outcome, Iranians are still screwed, same as they were before the war. If it falls, a regular military dictatorship without the religious zeal would be an improvement compared to now.  

I am not sure why you think the regime falling would lead to some peaceful and orderly transition to a military dictatorship.

To be fair to Legbiter, he didn't say it would be a peaceful and orderly transition.

The thing I'm less clear on is how and when the war ends. Will Trump find a way to TACO out of this?

[Tonitrus]

Iranian war propaganda. It's AI slop but done in an anime style. 

https://x.com/A_M_R_M1/status/2032167472753729570

You are an Iranian in Iran, one of the few with a functioning VPN. You see this, how do you feel?

It is missing American soldiers depicted as titans.

And it might be nice if they actually were launching missiles into Russia too?

[Legbiter]

It is missing American soldiers depicted as titans.

And it might be nice if they actually were launching missiles into Russia too?

My thought was "at least he died with his wife".

[Tonitrus]

KC-135s cannot refuel in the air. I cannot think of any circumstance in which two would be flying so close together as to collide, bar maybe in the landing pattern.

Looks like it may be one of the exceptions, and did involve two of them:

UPDATE: 6:15 PM EDT –

The Times of Israel has reported that the second aircraft involved was another KC-135. That outlet also says that the KC-135 in question was one that landed at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport earlier in the day after declaring an in-flight emergency. Online flight tracking data shows that tanker is a KC-135RT variant, one of a small subset of KC-135Rs that are themselves capable of being refueled in flight. This, in turn, allows them to make use of tanker support themselves to remain on station longer or to conduct longer-distance missions.

There is also an image out there supposedly of the other 135 that landed with a chunk of its vertical stabilizer missing.

[Tonitrus]

Some jihadist group claimed they shot down the refueler in Irak.

Being that the claim came after the CENTCOM announcement....good odds on being bullshit.

[grumbler]

KC-135s cannot refuel in the air. I cannot think of any circumstance in which two would be flying so close together as to collide, bar maybe in the landing pattern.

Looks like it may be one of the exceptions, and did involve two of them:

UPDATE: 6:15 PM EDT –

The Times of Israel has reported that the second aircraft involved was another KC-135. That outlet also says that the KC-135 in question was one that landed at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport earlier in the day after declaring an in-flight emergency. Online flight tracking data shows that tanker is a KC-135RT variant, one of a small subset of KC-135Rs that are themselves capable of being refueled in flight. This, in turn, allows them to make use of tanker support themselves to remain on station longer or to conduct longer-distance missions.

There is also an image out there supposedly of the other 135 that landed with a chunk of its vertical stabilizer missing.

I was unaware of the development of the KC-135RT (less than ten ever made, apparently) for SecOps missions, for which they sometimes need to be refueled in-air. So I withdraw mt earlier observation about them not having that capability.