Iran War?

[Zoupa]

Israeli strikes have killed 394 people in Lebanon (83 children) in the last week. Around 500 000 displaced so far.    Underreported news I think.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Trump already saying Ayatollah v. 3 won't live long without American support.

I think it's another in a long list of Trump comments on this war that will look bad in retrospect.

They killed the Ayatollah because Israel hacked Tehran's traffic cameras and knew when he was in his leadership compound. For a guy with such a big bull's eye on him, I actually think it was very close to suicidal. My only thought other than deliberate martyrdom is prior clashes may have convinced him neither the IDF or US would actually come for him personally.

While it is possible we see his son dead tomorrow, I strongly doubt he will be doing things as obvious as visiting a compound that affords no protection from bombing and is well known—to the public at large, as his base of operations.

Iran has to have tons of bunkers our munitions are very unlikely to get to, and where his location can be kept more secret.

[Legbiter]

I guess it completes the circle for the Islamic Republic, overthrowing a monarchy in 1979 to turn into a monarchy itself. Should just put him on a Peacock Throne as well.

[Neil]

What exactly do American evangelist believe in anyways?

That Jesus of Nazereth is the Son of God, and that his atoning sacrifice on the cross brings reconciliation with the Father for those who accept it.  That the forgiveness of sin is not earned or deserved, but is an unmerited gift of grace.  That God is sovereign in the affairs of the world, and that his plan uses all events to tend towards good.  They believe that the Bible is broadly accurate, and absolutely correct on matters of spiritual truth and relating to salvation, and that the Bible is the supreme source of information about God and his character.  They believe that people are 'born again', which is to say that the conversion experience produces a real change in people's lives.  That there is no intermediary priesthood between man and God, but that each individual Christian has direct access to the Father through prayer.  That's pretty much boilerplate Protestant Christianity, and is held nigh-universally across American Protestants.  However, when an American says 'evangelical', they're usually referring to streams of Protestantism that don't include the more liberal Lutherans or Episcopalians. 

The extreme interest in end-times stuff is an artifact of the Annotated Scofield Reference Bible that was given out in the early Twentieth Century.  This pushed a particular theology called 'dispensationalism', which basically amounts to the idea that God has separate plans and timelines for various groups of his people.  Through an extremely literal reading of the classical apocalyptic literature of Revelation (which had generally been viewed in a far more mixed light by the previous 1,500 years worth of theologians), they created an extremely specific and unique role for Israel.  The establishment of Israel after the war turbocharged support for this school of thought, and the dominance of Dallas Theological Seminary (one of whose graduates wrote 'The Late Great Planet Earth' in the Seventies, which introduced ideas like the Rapture to the broader public) produced a large number of people who accepted this theological line.  This produced a large number of people who were highly attuned to finding biblical prophecy in every passage of Revelation, looking forward to the Second Coming. 

Because the period where there ideas were popularized was at the height of the Cold War, there tends to be a strong vein of American exceptionalism, individualism and anticommunism in their political makeup, as a huge part of American religious thought was tied to the necessity of God and opposition to godless communism.  Thus, you saw a broad opposition to the counter-culture movements.

[Legbiter]

Btw, the war is going absolutely atrociously for Israel and the US. US bases in the Gulf have been severely damaged by dirt-cheap shahed drones, forcing planes to move way back, killing sortie rate by up to half, Israel is suffering under a metronomic regularity of Iranian ballistic attacks and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. This is an absolute shitshow and even if Trump declared total victory tomorrow it would be a massive strategic defeat plus I doubt the Iranians would stop.

[Jacob]

Btw, the war is going absolutely atrociously for Israel and the US. US bases in the Gulf have been severely damaged by dirt-cheap shahed drones, forcing planes to move way back, killing sortie rate by up to half, Israel is suffering under a metronomic regularity of Iranian ballistic attacks and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. This is an absolute shitshow and even if Trump declared total victory tomorrow it would be a massive strategic defeat plus I doubt the Iranians would stop.

What are some good sources of analysis on this war?

I'm looking more for things like strategic analysis, force assessment, logistics etc. Not the breathless 24 hour news cycle stuff, nor the "this shows how the side I don't like is EVIL" type analysis.

Anyone?

[mongers]

Btw, the war is going absolutely atrociously for Israel and the US. US bases in the Gulf have been severely damaged by dirt-cheap shahed drones, forcing planes to move way back, killing sortie rate by up to half, Israel is suffering under a metronomic regularity of Iranian ballistic attacks and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. This is an absolute shitshow and even if Trump declared total victory tomorrow it would be a massive strategic defeat plus I doubt the Iranians would stop.

What are some good sources of analysis on this war?

I'm looking more for things like strategic analysis, force assessment, logistics etc. Not the breathless 24 hour news cycle stuff, nor the "this shows how the side I don't like is EVIL" type analysis.

Anyone?

I don't think you'll find it, after it's over, sure they'll be some sober assessments of how it went, but only 8 days into the war?

I don't think you'll get much further than looking at the forces involved found in say the IISS's 'military balance'.

War is after all, in significant part, chaos, which I believe is what's playing out now.

[Razgovory]

I just don't get why this barely literate person has gotten the idea that Zoupa and crazy_canuck are antizionists.

Sorry, I didn't go to so prestigious a school as you did, though most people don't consider me "barely literate".  Of course, I don't rub shoulders with elites like you on a regular basis.  I got the idea that Zoupa and CCC are antizionist because of the stuff they post.


Anyway, this place has gotten very echo-chambery in the last few years.  I understand that discussing about the sort of racism and bigotry that is now acceptable in left-wing circles has made quite a few of you uncomfortable, so I may just just take my bow.  Maybe I'll come back sometime.  Maybe I'll just read posts by Sheilbh or something. 

Bye.

[Sheilbh]

Sadly it is on Twitter. But Vali Nasr author of a very good book on the Shia realignment about twenty years ago who recently wrote Iran's Grand Strategy (not read it so can't comment) is good.

In terms of regular updates, Hamidreza Azizi - his latest from earlier today:

Hamidreza Azizi
@HamidRezaAz
#Iran War Update No. 9 (focus on Iranian strategic narrative):

🔹Israeli strikes continued to focus heavily on Iran's missile infrastructure. The Israeli military said it targeted the headquarters of the IRGC Aerospace Force in Tehran, a key center responsible for Iran's missile and space programs.

🔹Israel also reported a major wave of attacks across Iran, claiming that more than 400 targets in western and central Iran were struck in 24 hours. According to Israeli estimates, more than 300 Iranian ballistic missile launchers have already been destroyed, leaving roughly 100 to 200 still operational.

🔹Despite these losses, Iranian missile attacks continue, although at a reduced scale. Estimates suggest that daily launches have fallen from roughly 350 missiles on the first day to around 30 to 35 per day, while Iran is claiming that more advanced missiles are now being used.

🔹As mentioned before, Iranian sources argue that this also reflects a deliberate strategy, in which earlier strikes focused on degrading regional radar systems, allowing subsequent waves of more advanced missiles to penetrate air defenses more effectively.

🔹Airstrikes across Iran continued throughout the day, particularly around Tehran. At the same time, Iranian missile attacks on Israel continued in smaller waves, with some visual evidence suggesting that several missiles have reached their targets.

🔹Iranian attacks reportedly continued against targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, which Iranian sources claim host U.S. forces. Gulf governments, however, have described some of these strikes as attacks on civilian infrastructure.

🔹The Bahraini Interior Ministry announced that a drone strike damaged desalination facilities in the country. Although Tehran has not officially confirmed responsibility, the incident came shortly after Iranian officials warned that attacks on Iran's desalination facilities could set a precedent for similar retaliation.

🔹Iran's leadership is also warning that the war could escalate further if attacks on its infrastructure continue. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which is coordinating Iran's war planning, said that continued strikes on Iranian infrastructure could trigger reciprocal attacks on infrastructure elsewhere in the region.

🔹Meanwhile, Israeli and American strikes against Iranian economic targets appear to be intensifying. Iranian officials warned that targeting energy infrastructure represents a shift toward economic warfare and threatened to retaliate against oil facilities across the region.

🔹These developments are already affecting global energy markets. Oil prices reportedly rose above $104 per barrel, while Reuters and Bloomberg reported that Iraq's oil production has fallen dramatically due to disruptions linked to the situation around the Strait of Hormuz.

🔹The Strait of Hormuz itself remains a major pressure point. Restrictions on maritime traffic have sharply disrupted regional energy exports, contributing to the broader shock to global oil markets.

🔹Inside Iran, the political dimension of the war is becoming increasingly prominent. Former President Hassan Rouhani publicly urged the Assembly of Experts not to rush its decision on selecting the next Supreme Leader, warning that announcing a successor during wartime could create internal divisions.

🔹Rouhani's remarks were interpreted as an attempt to delay the expected appointment of Mostafa Khamenei – albeit to no avail.

🔹At the same time, disagreements over President Pezeshkian's earlier remarks about neighboring countries continue. Other members of the interim leadership council reiterated that any country allowing U.S. or Israeli forces to operate from its territory could face Iranian retaliation.

🔹Iranian officials are also attempting to reassure the public about domestic stability. Authorities said that fuel reserves remain sufficient despite strikes on oil storage facilities, although some rationing measures have reportedly been introduced.

🔹Beyond the battlefield, the war is increasingly intersecting with other global conflicts. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian experts would travel to the Gulf to assist with drone defense, while also noting that Patriot interceptors used in the region far exceed the numbers available to Ukraine.

🔹Russia is signaling growing political sympathy for Tehran. In an unusual statement, the Russian ambassador to London said Moscow is "not neutral" and expressed sympathy for Iran, although he also emphasized that Iran has not formally requested Russian military support.

🔹China, meanwhile, is increasing its diplomatic engagement. Beijing has sent its Middle East envoy to Saudi Arabia and called for an immediate halt to hostilities, while warning against attempts to destabilize or change the Iranian regime.

🔹Iranian and pro-government discussions are also increasingly focused on the potential endgame. Some narratives suggest Iran could claim victory if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a prolonged period, if oil prices remain elevated, or if the political system emerges from the war unified under a new leadership.

🔹Other scenarios discussed include successful attacks on U.S. aircraft carriers or the emergence of regional unrest among Shia populations in countries such as Bahrain.

🔹Overall, Day 9 suggests that the conflict keeps getting entrenched and geographically diffuse. Missile exchanges continue, infrastructure attacks are expanding across the region, and diplomatic maneuvering by major powers such as China and Russia is intensifying as the war's global consequences become increasingly clear.

I'd note that Nasr had earlier said Iran's approach so far has been to allow incremental escalation - so keeping pressure up through regular but not massive missile launches using cheaper missiles to degrade/exhaust air defence systems. This would allow space for Iran to escalate to more advanced weaponry which seems to be happening. Also the tit-for-tat - an Iranian desalination plant (Iran gets about 5% of its water from desalination) was attacked, so they attacked a Bahraini desalination plan (Bahrain gets about 95% of its water from desalination). I think that water war is worth keeping an eye.

Also the US-Israeli shift to attacking infrastructure suggests to me a tacit acknowledgemet that regime change has failed. Israel has hit Iranian oil storage - I'd expect Iran to start targeting oil storage in the Gulf states.

I'd also note the PUK in Iraq noting that they're not seeing any internal revolt in Iran and have no intention of Kurds crossing the border. They added that the Iranian regime has been preparing for this for 45 years and to expect fierce resistance. They apparently said the Kurds acting as "tip of the spear" is not the way to go (and who can blame them after the previous 5-10 times they've responded to US calls only to be abandoned).

And in other news today, Grand Ayatollah Sistani (from Iraq) has issued a fatwa on the Iran war declaring a "collective religious obligation" for communal defence. The lastsuch fatwa was in response to the ISIS capture of Mosul.

And this article is fascinating:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/05/iran-war-munitions-critical-minerals/

Edit: I'd add from a purely parochial perspective it's been incredibly revealing of the lack of British naval power to meet both treaty obligations and defend our bases. The RAF have been there but we don't have any ships to deploy - they're almost all in drydock and we're hoping to get one out and on its way to Cyprus some time this week. If I were Milei I'd be putting together a special military operation about now.

Edit: One other less parochial if pessimistic thought - which is a drum I've been banging since at least covid but I think needs to be repeated because I think it's still happening. I think we are in an age of shocks: climate, geopolitical and from being in a globalised world.  There's an upcoming oil and gas shock from this conflict, regional wars in Europe and the Middle East impacting both the production of fertiliser and one of the world's largest agrifood producers, we're heading into an El Nino period - that's putting to one side the possibility of future pandemics and the stresses in the private credit markets. None of these are black swans (I believe the former PM of Singapore has a fantastic phrase for them: "black elephants", the elephant in the room no-one wants to talk about and then everyone acts surprised when it happens). I do not think our states, technocrats, "world order" or post-Cold War intellectual framework or way of looking at the world (in the West) are capable of responding to these crises - I think it all requires a level of planning, state capacity and willingness to choose and accept trade-offs that we do not have.

[Legbiter]

What are some good sources of analysis on this war?

I'm looking more for things like strategic analysis, force assessment, logistics etc. Not the breathless 24 hour news cycle stuff, nor the "this shows how the side I don't like is EVIL" type analysis.

Anyone?

There is no one twitter account that ties it all together.

Phillips P. OBrien comes closest to what you're asking.

https://x.com/PhillipsPOBrien

The algorithm will suggest from on there.

[Legbiter]

Edit: I'd add from a purely parochial perspective it's been incredibly revealing of the lack of British naval power to meet both treaty obligations and defend our bases. The RAF have been there but we don't have any ships to deploy - they're almost all in drydock and we're hoping to get one out and on its way to Cyprus some time this week. If I were Milei I'd be putting together a special military operation about now.

Yeah the RN with 2 aircraft carriers, only one of which has an actual airwing attached to it (had to administratively make it a part of the RAF to make the budget make sense, therefore saddling the RAF even further), no actual escorts to speak of...it's grim.



Coronation Fleet review 1953

[mongers]

 




BBC item on protest

[Legbiter]

Icelandic version.

Photo taken in...20006...he's still at it.

Eh, boomers.

[OttoVonBismarck]

ISW's daily updates are good for technical detail:
https://understandingwar.org

I don't really agree with Leg's assessment. I don't see any reports that the damage inflicted on Israeli or American assets to be particularly bad.

I think the assets of the Gulf state governments have been hit much worse.

My analysis isn't very positive about the US/Israeli prospects thus far. In a simple sense they have done huge damage to a lot of things of value and importance to the Iranian regime, but none of which really brings them closer to their vaguely defined "goals" of, "force Iran to do whatever we want, and maybe regime change." Nor is there any obvious prospect this type of campaign even can achieve such goals.

That makes it seem like a pretty expensive endeavor with very little likelihood of achieving anything of long term strategic value.

[Legbiter]

Massive ongoing bombardment of Israel.

https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/2030805430360772948