Iran War?

[Razgovory]

So is this a war or just airstrikes between friends?

[mongers]

Three years down the line, what's the last or least likely place to be bombed?

I was thinking, maybe the California governor's office, but no, more unlikely, but still a possibility, is the Pope's Vatican residency.

Then the answer dawned on me, the Kremlin.


So what are your betting odds for various 'targets' of the insanity?

Any takers for the Canadian PM's home?

[mongers]

So is this a war or just airstrikes between friends?

It's the early days of ''god's' wrath from above', as trumpism hollows out ever more US institutions, increasingly the only efficient one left is the US military and navy, so ever more often those will be used to demonstrate trump's magnificent power and manliness.

[Bauer]

War aim:  Nobel peace prize when Trump stops attacking?

[crazy canuck]

He's padding his stats on the number of wars he stops

[Norgy]

God, what a fucking dick move now. Had the chance before the opposition got murdered.

[OttoVonBismarck]

While I'm always happy at the prospect of bad things for the Iranian regime, I don't see any realistic scenario where intensive airstrikes results in regime change.

I think the possibility exists of crippling Iran's IRGC so much that the country becomes destabilized, but at the end of the day the guys with the guns are still the ones loyal to the Ayatollah. Iran's opposition are all disorganized, unarmed civilians. That's not a basis for any kind of regime change. If Iran had any sort of history of armed insurgency that'd be one thing, but the only armed insurgent groups I'm aware of in Iran are all peripheral out in mostly unsettled border regions and tied to small ethnic conflicts not ideological regime change.

[Jacob]

Has the US positioned assets for putting boots on the ground? I haven't followed things closely, but my assumption is they haven't.

[OttoVonBismarck]

No. There's been a naval and air power build up. The sort of invasion force to put any serious ground forces in place could not occur in secret, it would instead look like the pre-2003 invasion of Iraq build up, which took months and saw hundreds of thousands of infantry staged in the region. Nothing like that has happened, and if you take JD Vance's word to be worth anything, he was saying as recently as this week that "any sort of U.S. ground presence" was off the table in Iran.

Another important element of staging a large ground invasion force--it would be difficult and probably impossible to do without an AUMF and ensuing funding legislation from Congress, moving ships around is accounted for in the baseline budget, building a true invasion force is not covered by existing appropriations.

[Syt]

Has the US positioned assets for putting boots on the ground? I haven't followed things closely, but my assumption is they haven't.

Iran has twice the population of Iraq, plus much more rugged geography. It's significantly less amenable to rapid mechanized advances I'd assume. I guess you could secure the coast?

[Syt]

[Razgovory]

I have a terrible feeling there is no plan beyond "hope Iran just collapses".  Iran has around 4 times the population of 2003 Iraq, and we couldn't pacify that country very well.  To occupy Iran would require a draft.

[Zanza]

What is the plan if Iran starts attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz?

[Legbiter]

He's padding his stats on the number of wars he stops

[Legbiter]

Very anemic response from Iran. A few Shaheds, a handful of medium range missiles per intermittent salvo that only serves to piss off the Gulf Arabs. Everything sent towards Israel intercepted. No massive barrages, their C&C must've been effectively suppressed.