Quo Vadis, Democrats?

[viper37]

If we are tolerating a fair bit of sleeze in Democratic national leaders, Josh Shapiro is a million times better than Gavin Newsome.

I'm not following US politics enough to know the details on each local politicians.

So, obviously, Newsom, he might be a corrupt asshole. Among many other things.


But, I can't help but notice that he is fighting back.  And this time, the Dems are letting him fighting back.

Usually, whenever someone is fighting back with some energy, he seems to be shut down by the party.

And I will remark that for months now, the Democratic base, and even those that did not vote for Harris but claim to disagree with what Trump is doing are calling for the Dems to fight back. (incidentally, not just in the US, but that's a moot point)

Now, we have here someone who is fighting back.

And among those people who were asking for the Dems to fight back, there's a rising cry: "No, not like that!"  Or "No, not him!"

Which really begs the question of what is it they want?

Do they want to fight or do they want to play nice?

Yi has a point in the other thread that AOC/Sanders did a few tours in liberal cities and it didn't move the needle.  Now Newsome has a social media manager playing dirty like Trump where they stomp as low as he is, and it raises the attention of the scumbags voting for him.

Hardcore Republicans are unlikely to vote Dem, but independent could switch back.  You know, Latinos for Trump and all those people who seem to desert the Dems now.

I don't know.  I'd be tempted to try anything right now, rather than losing.

It's either that or secession.

[grumbler]

As an aside, the Sanders/AOC tour was (mostly) of Republican-led cities. They got turneouts that surprised many people.

I applaud Gov Newsome's mockery of Trump.  Trump's ego+stupidity is his achille heel.

But it is much easier to make Trump look bad than it is to make Newsome look good.

[Josquius]

Lest we forget too, turnout rather sucked last election.

Rather than trying to get your opponents supporters to support you instead, a usual way elections are won is instead about mobilising your voters - and of course suppressing your opponents turnout.

Mocking trump, showing he isn't all powerful, and how it would be hilarious to see his reaction when he loses, are useful things to mobilise the sane half of the country.

[Razgovory]

Lest we forget too, turnout rather sucked last election.

Rather than trying to get your opponents supporters to support you instead, a usual way elections are won is instead about mobilising your voters - and of course suppressing your opponents turnout.

Mocking trump, showing he isn't all powerful, and how it would be hilarious to see his reaction when he loses, are useful things to mobilise the sane half of the country.

[viper37]

As an aside, the Sanders/AOC tour was (mostly) of Republican-led cities. They got turneouts that surprised many people.

But in the next polls since, the Dems share of the vote dropped.

It tells me that part of those cities have blue core that went to the rallies while most Republicans or Independents stayed home, like when it came time to vote.

By maybe I am misreading the situation.

As for Newsome social media, it's too early to tell for now.

Right now, I guess he's trying to provoke Trump more than anything.  And Trump is still admired by the Republicans.  If is approval is lowered a notch there, he could lose support among in the House and Senate as some fear for their reelection.

We'll see in a few weeks, I guess.

I'm open to anything that works, really.  I haven't seen the party leadership doing much, really.  Maybe I haven't followed close enough, but all I've seen is disjointed action by individual members, no concerted action by the party as it should have been.

[viper37]

Democrats alarmed over new data showing voters fleeing to GOP

As we were discussing earlier.

[Josquius]

Yeah but you see I wasn't a real nazi, I just signed up as that was what you had to do for your business to get anywhere.

[crazy canuck]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/politics/democratic-party-voter-registration-crisis.html?unlocked_article_code=1.f08.H1tk.J1QvbeOB_aff&smid=url-share

Here is a gifted link to the NYTimes article that is source of the information in Viper's link

[The Minsky Moment]

Democrats alarmed over new data showing voters fleeing to GOP

As we were discussing earlier.

That's a backwards look at the last election cycle, the impact of which was felt in the 2024 election.  It's not entirely surprising to see that registration flow during a Democratic Presidential administration that spent most of the term underwater in approval.

Not saying that the party shouldn't be concerned; they obviously should be and are concerned.  But it doesn't necessarily give insight into what is happening right now.  One clear long run trend is the rise in numbers of people registering independent.  Not all these people are genuinely neutral; some of them lean or prefer one party over another. The data I've seen in 2025 suggests overall partisan identification has tipped slightly to the Democrats, which is roughly what I'd expect given Trump's approval numbers.  But the data should become more clear as we get nearer to November 2026, which is the next election for which there will be mass mobilization.

[Neil]

As an aside, the Sanders/AOC tour was (mostly) of Republican-led cities. They got turneouts that surprised many people.

Looking at the list of places that they've gone on their tour, it seems like a strong majority of the places at the least have Democratic mayors, even if they're in Republican-controlled states. 

[Neil]

Lest we forget too, turnout rather sucked last election.

It was the second-highest turnout of the last half-century.

[PJL]

Lest we forget too, turnout rather sucked last election.

It was the second-highest turnout of the last half-century.

It was the highest turnout in normal circumstances since 1908. In that respect Trump had a better mandate than many other presidents.

[crazy canuck]

Democrats alarmed over new data showing voters fleeing to GOP

As we were discussing earlier.

That's a backwards look at the last election cycle, the impact of which was felt in the 2024 election.  It's not entirely surprising to see that registration flow during a Democratic Presidential administration that spent most of the term underwater in approval.

Not saying that the party shouldn't be concerned; they obviously should be and are concerned.  But it doesn't necessarily give insight into what is happening right now.  One clear long run trend is the rise in numbers of people registering independent.  Not all these people are genuinely neutral; some of them lean or prefer one party over another. The data I've seen in 2025 suggests overall partisan identification has tipped slightly to the Democrats, which is roughly what I'd expect given Trump's approval numbers.  But the data should become more clear as we get nearer to November 2026, which is the next election for which there will be mass mobilization.

From the NYTimes article

Any hope that the drift away from the Democratic Party would end organically with Mr. Trump's election has been dashed by the limited data so far in 2025. There are now roughly 160,000 fewer registered Democrats than on Election Day 2024, according to L2's data, and 200,000 more Republicans.

"It's going to get worse," Mr. Pruser, of Decision Desk HQ, said of the outlook for Democrats, "before it gets better."

[The Minsky Moment]

My comments were based on the review of Gallup's latest analysis

https://news.gallup.com/poll/692978/democrats-regain-advantage-party-affiliation.aspx

It's based on partisan identifications and not just registrations, which fail to capture movement in the very large bloc of registered independents who tilt.

[crazy canuck]

My comments were based on the review of Gallup's latest analysis

https://news.gallup.com/poll/692978/democrats-regain-advantage-party-affiliation.aspx

It's based on partisan identifications and not just registrations, which fail to capture movement in the very large bloc of registered independents who tilt.

If polling data was accurate Trump would not have been elected.