India - Pakistan Conflict 2025

[Valmy]

Oh are we doing this? I had hoped cooler heads were prevailing.

[Sheilbh]

Low key thing I've seen people pointing out (and I'd love to know if there's any bigger stats on this) - it seems like lots of accounts on Twitter that appear to have been mainly posting pro-Trump content suddenly taking a strong interest in India-Pakistan and pivoting strongly to the Jai Hind internet. Not sure if it's actual Indians or maybe just bots on the engagement farms?

(The overlap of European, Indian and Israeli far-right - and interest in Trump - is something I always find a bit strange. Some of the weird nationalist international stuff going on online.)

[DGuller]

The more conflicts flare up all over the world, the more others with unresolved issues will start thinking that it's now or never for them to make their move.

[Admiral Yi]

(The overlap of European, Indian and Israeli far-right - and interest in Trump - is something I always find a bit strange. Some of the weird nationalist international stuff going on online.)

The anti-Muslim League.  Remember way back when Trump was first running and a bunch of Indians staged that bizarro Bollywood Trump rally in Florida with frickin' lasers?  It was a perfectly logical gambit by Indians to build support for India's confrontation with Pakistan and Modi's Hindu nationalism.

[viper37]

Oh are we doing this? I had hoped cooler heads were prevailing.

In other times, there would have been US diplomats at work trying to calm them.  Possibly failing, but at least trying.  The UN might have also been involved.  Other countries would join urging restrain, if they could.

There's no one to cool anyone's head now.

[Razgovory]

Eh, this did this six or seven year ago.

[Valmy]

Eh, this did this six or seven year ago.

They have done it several times.

Just seems more concerning with Modi and the international order in disarray.

[Sheilbh]

Although in fairness I don't think the international order has ever really cared/dealt with India-Pakistan. It's just been one of those conflicts that flares. In part it's sort of a sign of the success of Indian foreign policy which always rejected any attempt to incorporate India into a "bloc" that, while they were friendly with the Soviets and there were Cold War angles on India-Pakistan conflicts, actually it was, to a large extent, separated from that order. And I think that continues (not sure if that makes it higher or lower risk).

Ironically one of the only states that I think has actually helps broker peace talks is Russia.

[Duque de Bragança]

[url defaultattr=""]whttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9l9qwyv23o[/url]

India to stop water flowing across international borders, Modi says
9 hours ago


Anbarasan Ethirajan
South Asia regional editor
Tiffany Wertheimer
BBC News, London
Reuters indian troops patrol on Dal Lake in KashmirReuters
Relations between India and Pakistan have declined sharply following a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir
India has announced that it will stop its water from flowing over international borders.
"Now, India's water will flow for India's benefit, it will be conserved for India's benefit, and it will be used for India's progress", Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Tuesday.
While he did not mention Pakistan specifically, Modi's comments come about two weeks after India suspended a 65-year-old water sharing treaty with its neighbour.
Relations between India and Pakistan have declined sharply following a deadly militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir last month. India accuses Pakistan of backing cross-border terrorism - a charge Islamabad flatly denies.
On Tuesday night, India said it had launched missile strikes on nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan's military said eight people had been killed.
India said three civilians were killed by Pakistani shelling on its side of the de facto border.
Follow live: India launches air strikes on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir
Several rivers flow from India into Pakistan, providing vital water supplies to about 80% of farms there. Pakistani leaders previously warned that any attempt to stop the flow of water "will be considered as an act of war".
The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which governs the water sharing of six rivers in the Indus basin between India and Pakistan, survived two wars between the nuclear rivals and was seen as an example of trans-boundary water management.
Modi's suspension of the treaty was one of several steps he took against Pakistan after the attack, which killed 26 civilians.

The PM did not elaborate on how India plans to use the excess water, and experts say the country needs to build more dams, reservoirs and lakes to store it, which will take time to build.
The escalation prompted the US to repeat its calls for calm.
"We continue to urge Pakistan and India to work towards a responsible resolution that maintains long-term peace and regional stability in South Asia," State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce told reporters on Tuesday afternoon.

In practical terms, does it change a lot from suspending the Indus Water Treaty? India can't hold all the water forever in dams.

This article details it:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd7vjyezypqo

[crazy canuck]

Although in fairness I don't think the international order has ever really cared/dealt with India-Pakistan. It's just been one of those conflicts that flares. In part it's sort of a sign of the success of Indian foreign policy which always rejected any attempt to incorporate India into a "bloc" that, while they were friendly with the Soviets and there were Cold War angles on India-Pakistan conflicts, actually it was, to a large extent, separated from that order. And I think that continues (not sure if that makes it higher or lower risk).

Ironically one of the only states that I think has actually helps broker peace talks is Russia.

Quite the opposite. Once nuclear war became a possibility, reducing tensions between the two nations has been a priority of the international order.

[jimmy olsen]

This doesn't seem good

https://pk.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-consulate-lahore-may-8-2025/

Security Alert: U.S. Consulate Lahore (May 8, 2025)

Location: Lahore and Punjab

Event: Restriction of U.S. Personnel Movements in Lahore

Due to reports of drone explosions, downed drones, and possible airspace incursions in and near Lahore, the U.S. Consulate General in Lahore has directed all consulate personnel to shelter-in-place.

The Consulate has also received initial reports that authorities may be evacuating some areas adjacent to Lahore's main airport.

[Zanza]

This seems to escalate quickly. Let's hope sanity prevails.

[jimmy olsen]

We have entered the escalation spiral
https://x.com/shashj/status/1920410126692815096

India says that Pakistan attacked with drones and missiles overnight in a number of places & that India responded "in the same domain with the same intensity", suggesting that the strikes on Lahore are retaliatory.

[Bauer]

Pakistan's Chinese made fighters shot down 2 Indian fighters.  To be studied closely by various armed forces.

https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-chinese-made-jet-brought-down-two-indian-fighter-aircraft-us-officials-2025-05-08/

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Not just aircraft.  This is the first real use of the HQ-9 SAM system as well.  I've seen mixed reviews of the system so far, but it's so hard to get clear information about what's actually going on.  I mean, it's always hard to get a proper assessment during an active war, but it seems like when these two are involved the bullshit ratchets up to 11.