US vs China War?

[Jacob]

And I'm not sure that you can be assured that Xi is taking real military readiness more seriously based on his purging patterns.  He's been purging at a steady rate for years, and while to an outsider it might look like he's trimming the fat off the military brass, his history is such that as soon as his 'readiness clique' tells him anything he doesn't already agree with, they'll likely be purged irrespective of what their loss will do to military coordination and cohesion.  The first and most important target of the PLA is always the Chinese people, and especially the Chinese Communist Party. 

You're right - we have plenty of evidence that Xi purges those who say things in public that he disagrees with.

But how much evidence do we have that he purges people for being incorrect within the confines of internal debate? I.e. what's the willingness of Xi and his clique to assimilate information that challenges their assessment of physical realities if it's presented to them in a way that does not cause a loss of face or amount to a political challenge?

My feeling is they're better at that, but I could be wrong.

[Iormlund]

My bet is China will move against Taiwan once the US has fallen apart.

[Alcibiades]

Some really good takes and assessments in here. The prevailing thought for a long time was around 2030 but it's hard not to believe that timeline is accelerated now.  There's a couple of trains of thought, some believe there is no need for Taiwan to be invaded as long as they don't change the status quo and try to claim any type of independence.  Others believe, for various reasons, that Xi will want to take Taiwan ranging from hubris to semiconductors.

A very large deterrent was our global alliances. Given how quickly they can conduct operations, and how long it takes us to project power, they are less worried about a military clash than they are the global economic fallout.  Which is why Russia and how the Ukraine conflict plays out is extremely important. Unfortunately we are abdicating the world stage for incredibly shortsighted, selfish, and idiotic reasons.  I'm starting to think it will likely start with a crisis using a blockade, as we've seen them practice, and we'll give them up. 

And even if it does go to conflict, look at all the information ops that are eaten up by a significant part of the population and how quickly they've turned on Ukraine, parroting that we shouldn't be supporting a proxy war despite the insane benefits (hard truth) that we get from this stalemate. This is without the hardship that will come about from an actual war that will very quickly impact the US population at home, and the people will be demanding peace quickly, giving up what ever China wants.  Because we are soft and ignorant.

[Alcibiades]

Are we sure that China doesn't believe that they're strong enough?  It seems to me that there's a certain amount of self-propagandization amoungst the Chinese, and with Xi having purged anyone who tells him anything he doesn't want to hear, it's quite possible that he's living in a Putin-world where the only information he receives is that which his subordinates believe will fit his preconceived notions.  Xi is like Trump, only even more isolated and narcissistic. 

Sheilbh mentioned indications that XI and the other high-level officials are starting to take the actual level of readiness of the PLA more seriously.  I think they have seen how the pre-2022 assessments of the Russian military turned out to be a joke, and Xi specifically wants to avoid being in the situation Putin found himself in.  There are plenty of similarities between Trump, Putin, and Xi, but I think Xi is by far the most realistic and rational of the three.

And I'm not sure that you can be assured that Xi is taking real military readiness more seriously based on his purging patterns.   

They are. It's a significant push in the wake of several different events.

[Razgovory]

Trump has threatened China with a 200% tariff if Taiwan is blockaded, so we haven't even started and he's shot half his arrows.

[Valmy]

Trump has threatened China with a 200% tariff if Taiwan is blockaded, so we haven't even started and he's shot half his arrows.

LOL. That is functionally the same as the tariff we have now.

Or rather the tariff we are pretending to have now but actually are not enforcing.

I hate Xi and his regime, and Trump is making them look wise and correct by just refusing to engage with his nonsense.

[Josquius]

A lot of talk of what happens if China invades Taiwan....
But what happens if they follow Russias initial pattern in Ukraine and just invade kinmen and other islands right off the coast?
That would make international involvement all the trickier - and is something they're far more likely to succeed with.